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Negotiations in Istanbul. It seems they went better than in Belarus. Is there any hope for the world?

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this is Meduza's mailing list, where we briefly talk about the main events related to the war in Ukraine that took place during the day. Today, the main topic was the talks between Ukraine and Russia, which took place in Istanbul.

Ukraine made proposals on security guarantees

If they are accepted, Ukraine will declare itself a neutral state, and its security will have to be guaranteed by the parties to the multilateral treaty. These can be permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, USA, China, Great Britain, France), as well as Poland, Turkey, Israel, Germany, Italy, Canada. The guarantor countries, according to Ukraine's plan, should also facilitate its accession to the European Union.

According to the head of the Ukrainian delegation, Mikhail Podolyak, the conclusion of a multilateral agreement with Russia's participation will impose "a lot of additional burdens" on it and will allow Ukraine not to go for a "complicated bilateral format." “Only within the framework of a multilateral agreement can the traditional Russian non-binding nature of legal agreements be avoided,” he said.

The treaty should oblige the guarantor countries in the event of aggression against Ukraine to provide it with military assistance at its request. Assistance may include closing airspace. Consultations preceding the provision of assistance can go no longer than three days - a member of the delegation, David Arakhamia, called this a clearer mechanism than that prescribed in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (on the collective security of NATO countries), since there are no time limits for consultations .

The guarantees will not apply to Crimea, Sevastopol and the territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions controlled by the DNR and LNR.

The status of Crimea should be the subject of bilateral negotiations, which are proposed to be held within 15 years. The parties must commit themselves not to resolve the issue of Crimea by military means during this period. Podolyak called this proposal “revolutionary”, since its adoption would mean “the return of the topic of Crimea to the negotiation agenda” and would allow Ukraine to maintain “current legal interpretations” (that is, that Crimea is part of Ukraine).

The status of the territories controlled by the DPR and LPR is proposed to be moved to a separate paragraph, which will be considered at personal negotiations by the presidents of Ukraine and Russia.

What do they think about it in Russia

The fundamental attitude of the Russian authorities to these proposals is not yet known - neither Vladimir Putin nor his press secretary Dmitry Peskov have commented on them yet. The head of the Russian negotiating delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, called Ukraine's proposals "a constructive step towards finding a compromise"; he promised that Russia "will give an appropriate answer."

Commenting on the Ukrainian proposals on Crimea, Medinsky stated that Ukraine "renounces the desire to return the Crimea, Sevastopol by military means", but noted that its intention to do this through negotiations, "of course, does not correspond in any way" to the position of the Russian Federation.

Medinsky also said that Russia is making a "step forward" for Ukraine, agreeing - in the case of preparing a treaty - to hold a meeting of the presidents of the two countries not after the meeting of the foreign ministers, where the treaty will be approved in advance ("initialed"), but simultaneously with it - in this In this case, the presidents, “meeting for four [together with the foreign ministers], can resolve some remaining issues” (recall that Ukraine wants to leave the discussion of the issue of Donbass for this conversation).

Russia has promised to reduce "military activity" near Kyiv. Seems to be beneficial for her.

As a result of the negotiations, Russia decided to take another "step forward", namely, "dramatically, at times, reduce military activity in the Kiev and Chernigov directions." According to Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Alexander Fomin, this is being done "in order to increase mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiations and achievement of the ultimate goal."

Medinsky added that Russia “understands that there are people in Kyiv who need to make decisions” and does not want to “put this city at additional risk.”

As we explain in detail in this material , it is difficult to call this a real concession - the Russian offensive in these areas has already been stopped, and Ukrainian troops have launched counterattacks. In the Kiev direction, either the withdrawal of troops or their rotation was recorded. It is possible that Russia will decide to use the released forces to encircle the main grouping of Ukrainian troops in the Donbass, the “liberation” of which was recently called the main goal of the operation by the Ministry of Defense.

No war. Your Medusa