Translated material
"Thus starting the processes of degradation and decay." Chronicles of hospitalism
In the week, rich in events at the front of “special operations” (on land and at sea ), something noticeable happened in the Russian economy. In less than two months after the commissioning of Russian troops to Ukraine, how the authorities began to openly recognize the scale of the difficulties that the country faced.
Not that in the rhetoric of officials there was a radical fracture. Suppose the Ministry of Industry and Trade, responding to the overlap of ground routes (in addition to air and water) for cargo flows in the western direction, only “fixes certain difficulties due to the refusal of cooperation from a number of large international carriers”. It is more important that 80% of televisions in the Russian market, said this ministry, are made here, so do not switch (it is interesting whether officials will bend their line if the bill on criminal liability for the execution of anti-Russian sanctions will be adopted, due to which local manufacturers of equipment risk losing 95% of imported components).
“We can,” the press secretary of the president Dmitry Peskov, to the question of TV presenter Pavel Zarubin on Sunday, answered mechanically, whether Russia, unlike the USSR, can “make a sod” in a confrontation with the West.
Nevertheless, one cannot but notice the growing confusion and even anxiety in how the authorities convinces itself (and viewers) of the ability to cope with everything. At least this was felt in the first day of the performance of the first deputy chairman of the government Andrei Belousov in the Federation Council.
“Obviously, the plan of our geopolitical opponents is to isolate Russia as much as possible from the global economy. Literally tear her out of world -economic ties. Thus starting the processes of degradation and decay of our economic system. In fact, an attempt was made to organize a global blockade of Russia, which consists, schematically, of four rings. ”
Kremlin.ru
These "rings of hostility" referring to the work of the writer Vladimir Voinovich (in the satirical anti -utopia “Moscow 2042” there were, however, three of them) mean blockade of four types:
Financial : “Block access to financial markets and cut off from financial calculations. Set "outlawing" Russian system -forming banks. "
Trading : “Break foreign trade relations. Maximize the export potential as much as possible. Fuck Russia from the sources of imports of critical goods and services. ”
Transport : “Block the most important transport communications. First of all, aviation, sea and vehicles. " ( The railway is mentioned, although
In the public response in a request for a request from the Council, it is noted that due to the sanctions “on the network of Russian Railways, more than 150 thousand empty wagons are idle without freight operations” ).
Humanitarian : “ Break the contacts between people. Complete the communication in the scientific, cultural and educational fields. ” ( In confirmation of these words, the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexander Sergeyev, said that most Western countries “froze” contacts with Russian scientists, and not only the Western ones: “Unfortunately, I can say that our Chinese scientific colleagues also paused, and over the past month we cannot reach serious discussions, despite the fact that we have built excellent cooperation with regular communication” ).
The existential part of the agenda was followed by constructive, but it, objectively speaking, sounded unconvincing to extremely.
So, Belousov is sure that the absolute blockade is impossible: “It is impossible to isolate Russia, the sixth largest economy in the world (meaning GDP calculated by the parity of purchasing power. - Republic ), from the global economic system, and the events of the last one and a half months clearly testify to this.” To some extent, this is true-given the activation of the Russian Federation in the Indian direction, as well as the general doubts that developing countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia will flatly refuse to expand economic cooperation with Moscow. However, as Economist magazine rightly noted , four dozen states that opposed or abstained from voting in support of the March UN resolution “Humanitarian consequences of aggression against Ukraine”, have a low per capita GDP, do not have sufficient technological potential and cannot be considered as a full -fledged replacement for the destroyed trade relations of Russia and the West.
A strange impression also leave the words of the Deputy Prime Minister about “the need to repay shock and prevent panic”-as if after eight weeks of increasing sanction pressure and the outcome of international business to Russian citizens, a bitter truth about a new life in the “ring of enemies” began to open now.
At the same time, Belousov’s passage about the task facing the task “to ensure the growth of the economy, its quality development” looks the most amazing. Indeed, the day before the Senators, the head of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin, reported the day before the speech of the Deputy Prime Minister. He explained that the now -sounding estimates of the Russian GDP, according to the results of the current year, range in the range from −8%to −10%, and they are not the most pessimistic (Belousov did not delve into forecasts, although he admitted that in industry and trade the decline was about 11%, in other sectors - 9-10%).
Andrey Belousov and Alexey Kudrin / Kremlin.ru
That is, the Putin’s “special operation” not only took a significant part of the growth of the previous decade - already very modest, on average 1.8% of GDP per year, but for an indefinite period it made it impossible to return the country to those weak economic positions that it had until February 24. “The Russian economy is in a swamp, so it cannot fall from the cliff,” the economist Sergei Guriev once suggested . Unfortunately, he was mistaken. In fresh chronicles of hospitalism :
State planning. "There is an understanding of which companies can take the place of IKEA"
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