The worst in the war is still ahead: Putin will go to the end after Buchi to hide war crimes in occupied territories

The war in Ukraine is becoming more and more cruel and merciless, and the position of the leadership of Russia is increasingly uncompromising. If until recently it seemed that Putin was quite ready to return to Ukraine all occupied territories except for the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in exchange for neutral and nuclear status, it is now quite obvious that the Kremlin does not plan to give either the Kherson or the Melitopol - the authorities of the pro -Russian authorities are being created, Russian flags are posted, the introduction of the Russian education system is discussed, and the currency. In the public speeches of Russian pro -government politicians, we are increasingly talking about all the south of Ukraine with a hint that the longer Kyiv refuses to sign the world on the conditions proposed now, the worse the conditions will be later.

Despite the optimism officially translated by the Ukrainian leadership, it is not possible to stop the advance of the Russian army, but about the counterattacks and the return of Ukrainian control of any significant territories (in addition to the regions in the north of the country, from where the Russian troops came out independently), all the more, do not. Undoubtedly, the situation may change: Ukraine is actively armed, and Russia has more and more problems with manpower and equipment. But we must not forget that Putin also has the opportunity to declare mobilization and then there will be enough people for many more months of ruthless massacre. Even the official speaker of the Ukrainian authorities, Alexei Armorovich, said in an interview with Meduza that the Russian army could advance for another 2-3 weeks and only then the front would be stabilized.

Retreat and crime

It may well be that the cause of radicalization of the Kremlin’s position was not only the failure of the plan of the quick and successful destruction of the Ukrainian state with its subsequent redeeming in a form convenient for Russia - in the form of pro -Russian and unconditionally recognizing Russian Crimea. The history of the investigation of the crimes of the Russian army in Buch, Irpen and other cities of the Kyiv region, which were first occupied by the Russian army, and then left it, could play a significant role in the radicalization of the Russian leadership. The keyword is left. As we recall, the Russian leadership tried to present a departure from Kyiv as a gesture of goodwill. It was assumed that this would show the path to the world: they say, you will agree to our conditions, and we ourselves will leave - like from Buchi and Irpen.

Now it is already clear, giving an order to retreat from Kyiv, Putin or did not know anything about the crimes committed there, or underestimated the effect that they would produce.

Apparently, the order to retreat found the military by surprise, and most importantly - he did not contain any instructions on the elimination of traces of committed atrocities. It is not very clear, however, how could they hide traces of crimes, but it is obvious that they did not even try and, even vice versa, deliberately left the Ukrainians “hello”. As a result, initially filed as a gesture of goodwill and the desire to the world, the departure of Russian troops from Kyiv turned into an image catastrophe for Putin and his army.

On the way to Katyn

In the logic of the consistent reconstruction of Soviet experience, in which Putin and his environment lives, the exhumation of the corpses and the testimony of the victims of the violence of the Russian army in the abandoned territories refers to the story with the exhumation of the corpses of the executed NKVD of Polish officers in the Katyn forest, which Goebbels turned into a fairly effective information attack. In both cases, the crime was completely “ours”, in both cases it was discovered by those whom official propaganda calls the Nazis - with the unpleasant correction for the Kremlin that, in addition to its inhabitants, no one considers Nazi Ukrainians. In both cases, a demonstration of victims of systematic violence against unarmed people hit the prestige of the Kremlin.

Stalin solved the Katyn problem simply: after the return of those places to Soviet control, a new commission was created and new exhumations were held. Naturally, the new commission unconditionally confirmed the truth of the Stalinist version - that the Germans killed Polish officers. Moreover, the Soviet side even sought to include the execution in Katyn in the accusatory sentence to the Nazis in the Nuremberg process! But the allies could not be persuaded for such a compromise, and therefore, up to perestroika, the official version of Stalin held on an honest word of the Soviet regime, the winner of the Nazism: everyone knows that the Nazis committed the crimes, and Goebbels always lied, so what else do you need evidence, that the Germans committed this crime to sink Soviet power?

In the same way, for many decades, the issue with numerous facts of violence against the civilian population of Germany in 1944-1945 was closed for many decades. Goebbels also came in handy here: in 1944, he spent a large ideological campaign after the East Picture Village of the Germansdorf passed under the control of the Red Army, and then again for some time was repulsed by the Nazis. Goebbels solved the problem of mobilizing the Reich population against the backdrop of an increasingly obvious military disaster and quite consciously scared the Germans by the fact that the Red Army would kill and rape everyone. What really happened there in the Nemmersorf - a separate story, it is important that then any accusations against the Soviet military were rejected as “Nazi propaganda” with a reference to Goebbels's efforts. As in the case of Katynya, to say

The fact that Soviet soldiers in Germany did not always behave appropriately only during perestroika, and then carefully. In modern Russia, this topic is again taboo.

The attitude to perestroika is now in the Kremlin, it is known what and Putin made from everything that happened is easily reconstructed: you can commit any crimes, the main thing is that then the territory remains under control, and all the seekers of the truth is criminally punished as slanderers and accomplices of Nazism. What they say and think on the other side of the “iron curtain” is not interesting. Sooner or later, there will be those who pounds: “It is not clear who killed whom there, these say one, then another, let's already trade with them again.” And what will happen in many years-all the more it does not matter, as can be seen in the example of the same Stalin, his fan club is no facts.

Taking into account the foregoing, it is not surprising that, if successful in the Donbass, Putin will try to rush to Kyiv again through the same buch to remove the “testimony of local residents” that all this was a provocation of the Nazis, and the Ukrainians themselves raped, robbed Ukrainians themselves.

Only the winners are not judged

Most likely, in other territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia, nothing good happens either. Therefore, in order to avoid new indicative exhumations, no territories that have fallen under the occupation will no longer be left to the Russian army voluntarily. This is the bad news for everyone who still hopes for the quick end of the war and the return of the status-quo.

After all the committed and discovered atrocities and crimes, Putin will not agree to any compromise options, because all of them will ultimately make him a criminal, who is in wait for the prosecutors with the order for the arrest of the International Tribunal under each bush.

Despite the difficult situation of the Ukrainian army on the fronts, the time in any case works against Putin. The most terrible mistakes have already been made, and there will only be more crimes every day. To believe that there is a scenario of occupation and retention under the control of all of Ukraine only people completely far from reality. The scenario of the formation of the pro -Russian government in Kyiv, ready to guarantee Putin’s loyalty to him and the crimes of his army, has become equally fantastic.

Having attacked Ukraine, Putin instantly outlined his guilt. Most likely, both he and the performers of his will perfectly understand this and therefore the war with Ukraine has already turned into a war for the survival of the Putin regime.

Putin undoubtedly believes that “the winners are not judged” and in this logic he has no other options to avoid responsibility for the beginning of the war and committed in its course of crime, except at any cost to get out of it, if not the winner, but at least undefeated.

Therefore, for the return of each city and every village, Ukrainians will have to fight. History teaches that the worse things go at the front, the more crimes in the occupied territories will be committed. In turn, the crimes committed will only strengthen Putin himself and those who are fighting under his banners, and those who support all this in the rear in the conviction that it is impossible to give up and retreat in any case, because in the abandoned territories the world will definitely not have to wait for mercy or mercy.

It’s scary to write like this, but the worst in this war is still waiting for us.