The price of a “special operation” in Ukraine. Online

The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, which began on February 24

SUPPORT THE BELL

The war completely changed our lives. We have been writing about its consequences for each of us online since February 24. We have never taken money from readers for content, believing that we can earn money ourselves. But now our business model, like so much else in the economy, has collapsed. Help The Bell keep going!

This online is complete. Read the new one here .

19:22 The G7 countries will commit themselves to the indefinite support of Ukraine, Bloomberg reports with reference to the draft document. “We will continue to provide financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic assistance to Kyiv and support it for as long as necessary,” the text says. This wording, the agency notes, is especially important against the background of the fact that a number of countries, including Germany and France, are increasingly adhering to the rhetoric of a negotiated ceasefire despite the presence of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine.

17:16 The first day of the G7 summit led by Olaf Scholz is dedicated to the global economy. The leaders expressed concern about the impending financial difficulties for the world, the German chancellor said after the working meeting. “The G7 countries are concerned about the crisis we are facing: slowing economic growth in a number of countries, accelerating inflation, shortages of raw materials and disruptions in supply chains. All these are not easy tests, ” concluded Scholz.

16:33 The Central Bank will be able to sell shares of Otkritie Bank to VTB without trading at the market price. Such amendments were made by a group of deputies, the new version of the bill will be considered by the State Duma on June 28.

The idea to combine VTB with Otkritie and RNCB (the largest bank in Crimea and Sevastopol) arose against the backdrop of Western sanctions against the Russian banking sector. The Chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina , noted that it was impossible to sell Otkritie (which has been under the control of the Central Bank since the reorganization in 2017) in the foreseeable future, despite the work done with potential investors. At the same time, the merger will allow banks to significantly save on branches, which VTB and Otkritie often duplicate each other, and staff costs, and will also “bring a major federal player to Crimea,” Kommersant . wrote

15:16 The Kremlin announced the first foreign visits of Vladimir Putin since the beginning of the “special operation”. Next week, he will visit Dushanbe, where he will hold talks with Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and after that he will travel to Ashgabat to attend the Caspian summit.

14:30 NATO countries at the upcoming summit in Madrid, scheduled for June 28-30, may decide on the largest deployment of bloc troops in Europe since the Cold War, Spanish newspaper El País reports , citing sources. According to them, some of the allies want NATO to at least double its presence in Eastern Europe, that is, switch to brigade formations. The current battle groups number 1,000-1,600 troops. The most geographically close to Russia countries of the alliance insist on the formation of divisions under the command of generals, the number of military personnel in this category can reach 15,000. Innovations will also affect "greater autonomy of action" and "more advanced weapons."

11:01 The main thing for the night and morning

• The UK, US, Canada and Japan will impose a ban on the import of Russian gold, has announced the British government . The measure will take effect shortly. This applies to gold mined after the ban was introduced, including refined (refined from impurities), that is, it does not apply to previously exported. Joe Biden also announced the plans of all G7 countries to impose a ban on the import of Russian gold . He noted that as a result, Russia could lose tens of billions of dollars in revenue.
• The leaders of the G7 countries are in "very constructive" talks to expand restrictions on Russian oil imports, Reuters writes , citing a source in the German government. The United States, Canada and the United Kingdom have already imposed an embargo, while in the EU it will come into force by the end of 2022. With soaring energy prices, the West fears that the oil embargo will fail to end the Kremlin's military campaign. The solution to the dilemma could be a cap on the price of Russian oil, which will reduce the income from its sale, officials say, with the caveat that this will require the support of large importers such as India and China.
• For the first time, the Russian army may be allowed to conclude contracts with school graduates. This proposal was put forward by Andrei Kartapolov, Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee. The deputies will consider the amendments in the second reading on Monday, June 28. Now they don’t conclude contracts with yesterday’s graduates, for this you need to graduate from a technical school - from there they leave at least a year or two older and with a profession, the notes . BBC Russian Service

Continued online June 26

20:31 The G7 countries will agree to impose a ban on the import of gold from Russia, Reuters reports citing a source. According to him, the US Treasury will issue a decree on Tuesday banning new supplies to the country.

20:19 On the day of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and Belarus, Vladimir Putin held talks with Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburg. Briefly, the main statements of the parties:

• Putin expressed the readiness of Russia and Belarus to meet the needs of world markets for fertilizers and pointed to an increase in trade between the two countries by “more than a third”, up to $38 billion. Lukashenko spoke about the start of loading Belarusian mineral fertilizers at the port in the Leningrad region (near St. Petersburg).
• Minsk offered Moscow 15 major investment projects for the production of import-substituting products during 2022-2023. Lukashenka also announced his desire to raise the status of the country in the SCO (now an observer).
• Lukashenko asked Putin to help with a mirror response to the training flights of US and NATO aircraft "preparing to carry" nuclear warheads near the borders of Belarus. Putin replied that there was no need for this yet, but stressed that the Belarusian army has a lot of Su-25 aircraft in service, which can be retrofitted at aircraft factories in Russia, and then begin training flight crews. Lukashenka wanted to adapt the aircraft available to Belarus to be equipped with nuclear warheads. In European countries, according to the Russian president, 200 tactical nuclear warheads are stored, and 257 aircraft have been prepared for their possible use.
• In the coming months, Moscow will supply Iskander-M tactical missile systems to Minsk. They can use ballistic and cruise missiles - "both conventional and nuclear."
• Putin assured that all issues on the Union State of Russia and Belarus are practically agreed upon.
• Lukashenka compared Lithuania's isolation of Kaliningrad to a declaration of war, and also admitted that Minsk should be ready for anything, "even the use of serious weapons" in order to "defend the fatherland - from Brest to Vladivostok."

18:37 Russia will transfer Iskander-M missile systems to Belarus within the next few months, Vladimir Putin promised at a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburg. When asked to help re-equip Minsk's Su-25 aircraft to be equipped with nuclear warheads, Putin replied with a proposal to re-equip them in Russia and begin training flight crews. At the same time, he stressed that so far there is no need for a mirror response to NATO air flights with nuclear weapons near the borders of Belarus.

17:59 Mayor of Severodonetsk Alexander Stryuk said that the Russian army completely occupied the city. The fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to him, "withdrew to more prepared positions." The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has not yet announced the capture of Severodonetsk.

UPD: The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation officially announced the capture of Severodonetsk.

16:44 The Credit Derivatives Determination Committee (CDDC) has asked the US Treasury to temporarily allow trading in Russian assets, Bloomberg reports citing sources. So investors who bet on Russia's default on sovereign debt and bought insurance will be able to receive payments of $1.5 billion. OFAC's decision on this issue is expected no earlier than the G7 summit scheduled for June 26-28. An OFAC spokesperson declined to comment.

16:02 Greece will not interrupt the acceptance of documents for visas from Russians from June 27, the technical suspension is canceled .

13:54 Germany insists that the G7 countries abandon the obligation to stop financing foreign projects on fossil fuels by the end of the year, said Bloomberg interlocutors familiar with the matter . The agency also got acquainted with the draft document, in which the G7 countries recognize that financial support for the gas sector by the state is needed "as a temporary response to the current energy crisis." The proposal was opposed by the United Kingdom, two sources said. The German government declined to comment.

12:17 The turnover of cosmetics and perfumery stores located in shopping centers in Moscow, according to the results of the first two weeks of June, decreased by 12% in annual terms, and the share of receipts - by 18%, Kommersant reports, citing data from . Focus Technologies It is not possible to restore sales due to the desire of consumers to save money, increase the cost of popular items by 30% and reduce the range.

12:01 The main thing for the night and morning

• The US economy is likely to shrink in 2022-2023 but "hard to avoid a recession" as the Fed tightens monetary policy and raises the key rate to fight inflation, the IMF said in an updated forecast . The policy priority (without provoking a recession) should be to quickly slow wage and price growth. “It will be a difficult task,” as global supply chain problems and domestic labor shortages are likely to persist, and the crisis over Ukraine creates additional uncertainty, the IMF said in a statement.
• The sanctions have already had a "dramatic" effect on Russia's economic condition, says US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. According to him, much of what the Russian authorities are doing now, for example, to support the ruble, is unsustainable. “I think you will notice a change here,” Blinken said during a press conference in Berlin, noting that this will happen even despite the effective propaganda system that has been built in Russia for many years.
• The head of the State Department also announced Washington's readiness to support "any diplomatic solution" to the conflict. The US, along with Ukraine and allies, are discussing a "diplomatic strategy" and continue to strengthen Ukrainian positions on the battlefield so that Kiev has "the strongest possible position at any negotiating table that should appear," Blinken said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said this week that Russia could return to negotiations when Ukraine "deigns to make a proposal to restore the diplomatic process" and will proceed from the state of affairs "on the ground."
• Greece from June 27 suspended the acceptance of documents for visas from Russians for an indefinite period. In the visa center of Greece, this is explained by technical problems, due to which the Greek consulates in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Novorossiysk will be temporarily closed. As one of the tour operator companies explained to Vestnik ATOR, the center's system is being updated.

Continued online June 25

20:39 Alrosa, which fell under US and UK sanctions, announced that it would not be able to pay the coupon on another issue of dollar Eurobonds - with maturity in 2027. Tomorrow, June 25, the company had to pay $7.75 million on Eurobonds. Due to the sanctions, it was technically impossible to make payments on Eurobonds, Alrosa explained.

19:55 Stores of the Spanish brand Mango will soon resume work in two shopping centers in Moscow - in Atrium and Aviapark. The retailer suspended operations in Russia in March, closing its own stores and halting online sales. In total, there are 120 brand stores in the country, 65 of them franchises, which continued to sell goods available in warehouses. Last week, Mango announced that it was definitively phasing out direct sales in Russia and handing over the business to franchisees. A few days ago, Wildberries began selling brand clothes.

6:13 pm The US Supreme Court overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling that guaranteed women the right to abortion across the country. Now the states will be able to independently decide whether to allow or prohibit abortions.

UPD: Biden criticized the decision of the Supreme Court, which abolished the right to abortion. According to him, "today, in front of everyone's eyes, the Supreme Court took away the constitutional right from the American people" and now the health of American women is in danger. It's a "tragic mistake by the Supreme Court," which took a turn for the worse under Donald Trump's presidency, Biden said.

15:23 Tinkoff Investments is introducing a commission for storing currency on a brokerage account from July 4. Amounts over 10 thousand dollars, euros or British pounds will be taxed at a rate of 1% per month - as for foreign currency accounts. The commission does not concern the securities themselves. “This is a forced measure, it is due to geopolitical risks when working with Western partners and is aimed at reducing the currency position,” the bank writes.

The bank explicitly hints what to do to customers: “We are temporarily canceling commissions for the sale of currency from July 4 to July 8. And one more opportunity - from July 4 to July 8, you will be able to buy exchange-traded gold and silver also without a commission.

14:33 Sberbank introduces a commission of 1.25% for transfers to cards of third-party banks through their applications - “minimum 30 rubles, maximum 150 rubles”, for currency transfers - from 1 to 3 dollars or euros. Commenting on this for Forbes, the bank said that it sees no reason for its clients to “pull off” money on cards of third-party banks and offers to evaluate the benefits of its own services.

Without commission, you can transfer up to 50,000 rubles per month to cards of other banks free of charge in the Sberbank Online application and up to 100,000 rubles per month through SBP.

14:16 The Ministry of Finance of Russia announced that it had paid another coupon in rubles on the state debt, transferring 8.5 billion rubles on bonds maturing in 2028 (ISIN XS0088543193, US78307AAE38) to NSD. This is the equivalent of $159.4 million, that is, the funds were transferred at a rate below 54 rubles per dollar.

Despite the decree signed by Putin on the mechanism for crediting rubles to the accounts of investors in Russian Eurobonds, he is unlikely to postpone the default on the public debt, which is possible as early as next week. The Bell wrote more about this here .

13:10 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov compared the candidate status in the EU of Ukraine and Moldova with how "Hitler gathered a significant part, if not a large part, of European countries under his banner for the war against the Soviet Union." “Now also, including the European Union, together with NATO, they are gathering such an already modern coalition to fight, and by and large, war with the Russian Federation. We will look at all this very carefully,” he said.

Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, called the new status of countries "internal European affairs", which, nevertheless, should not bring more problems to Russia. The Bell wrote more about yesterday's decision of the EU countries in the evening mailing list .

12:07 Germany has figured out how to use the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that was built but not put into operation. Its German section can be nationalized and an LNG terminal in the Baltic can be connected to it, Spiegel writes , citing sources.

11:36 The share of Russian oil in India's imports has risen to 10% since April from 0.2%, writes Economic Times . In May, Indian oil companies bought about 25 million barrels of Russian oil. "India took advantage of the discount to increase oil imports from Russia in the face of rising world energy prices," the newspaper notes.

10:42 The Ukrainian authorities announced the withdrawal of troops from Severodonetsk (but not from Lysichansk), which are in deep coverage of Russian troops, and the occupation of "more fortified positions." With the capture of these two cities, almost the entire Luhansk region of Ukraine will be under the control of Russia.

9:58 Izvestia writes that banks stop opening savings accounts and deposits in dollars and euros. The publication lists Sovcombank, Rosbank, Promsvyazbank (subject to blocking sanctions), as well as Otkritie and Tinkoff.

8:55 The main thing for the night and morning

• Less than a quarter of Russian borrowers are confident that they will be able to service loans already taken. For banks, this portends a reduction in lending, a rise in bad debts and the role of fees.
• Investors see a solution to the problem of foreign currency payments on Eurobonds frozen in foreign depositories in repeated payments by issuers in rubles, but this is hardly a realistic option. So far, centralized redemption of Eurobonds or reissue of debt in ruble bonds is being worked out at the state level.
• After August 31, the Central Bank will remove the ceiling of acquiring commissions for sellers of 1% introduced from mid-April. The measure did not justify hopes for price cuts and cashback from trade, stated , and urged businesses to use the SBP more actively. Olga Skorobogatova, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank,
• RSPP asks to leave open information about the owners of real estate in the register - it is proposed to close it only at the request of the owner. In the current version of the resonant bill ( adopted in the first reading a month ago), information about real estate is closed by default, and in order to open it, the owner must write to Roskomnadzor.
• Coronavirus vaccines saved the lives of 20 million people in 2021, but more than 12 million of them in high- and middle-income countries, Bloomberg cites the first omnibus study of its kind. Unequal access to vaccines has cost an estimated 600,000 lives in poorer countries. The deaths could have been avoided if the goal of vaccinating 40% of their population with two or more doses by the end of last year had been met.
• Swiss refiners deny that the three tons of gold exported from Russia in May came to them - the destination of this shipment has become even more mysterious. It is possible that gold will be included in the forthcoming seventh package of EU sanctions against Russia.

Continued online June 24

21:30 Ukraine and Moldova have officially received the status of EU candidate countries.

20:28 Brussels intends to relieve tension with Moscow due to Kaliningrad's transit restrictions and revise the directives on sanctions measures. "We don't want to block traffic between Kaliningrad and Russia," said Josep Borrell, head of European diplomacy, adding that the restrictions should be thought out in such a way as to prevent circumvention of sanctions and blockade of the region. The European Commission is currently preparing clarifications for Lithuania regarding the Kaliningrad transit.

19:03 Internet retailer Ozon became the second company to launch the sale of goods that were imported without the consent of the copyright holder (that is, using parallel imports). These are the marketplace’s own sales, but sellers are also already adding products, clarified vc.ru in the press service. There is no special section for them.

Svyaznoy was the first of the major retailers to import electronics in this way. more about this We wrote in the morning newsletter.

17:14 American manufacturer of network equipment Cisco curtails activities in Russia and Belarus, reports Reuters with reference to the company's statement. All business operations in both countries were suspended back in March.

17:00 The Ministry of Finance allowed investors to transfer foreign currency from the sale of foreign securities to foreign accounts. the day before that the ban would be lifted The Bell found out .

15:57 The world's largest producer of birch plywood - the Sveza company from the Severgroup of billionaire Alexei Mordashov - complained about pressure from regulatory authorities due to downtime and asked for state support for the timber industry. Due to export restrictions, Sveza's capacities were underutilized by 60-80%.

14:55 Nike announced the final withdrawal from the Russian market.

The American shoe and clothing manufacturer has been operating in Russia since 1993. In March, Nike stopped deliveries, stopped the operation of the Russian online store and delivery to the region, and temporarily closed all directly operated stores.

In May, Vedomosti, citing sources, wrote that Nike did not renew the franchise agreement with Inventive Retail Group, which owns the brand's largest chain of stores in the country. Experts then noted that it was now impossible to quickly replace Nike in Russia with a similar global brand.

Now the company, according to Reuters , has sent out a letter in which it announced a complete withdrawal from the Russian market within a few months.

13:50 The Ministry of Finance refused to recognize the default payments on Eurobonds in rubles. This is stated in the explanation of the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov about the new settlement scheme for Eurobonds. “The Russian Federation does not refuse to fulfill its obligations under government securities and, as a responsible borrower, is taking all possible actions to bring funds to all investors in full,” the head of the Ministry of Finance said.

According to Siluanov, the main thing is that Russia made the payment, and a change in the payment currency cannot be regarded as improper fulfillment of debt obligations, especially in a force majeure situation.

13:03 SPIEF has died down next is the SPBILF , a St. Petersburg legal forum that is celebrating its 10th anniversary. We studied the program of events - this year it is highly patriotic.

The moderators and participants of the sessions will be TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov, Abbess Xenia, small arms lover Maria Butina and singer Misha Mavashi. Representatives of the legal community from Western countries, who traditionally came to the forum, are predictably not among the participants.

The traditional program of lawyers' parties on Rubinshteina Street is also missing. Two of The Bell's industry sources say some law firms have already pulled out.

The topics of the sessions and round tables are also striking in their diversity .

12:35 The Ministry of Finance made payments on Eurobonds in rubles.

"The Russian Ministry of Finance has fully fulfilled its obligations to pay coupon income on Eurobonds in accordance with the presidential decree of June 22," the ministry's press service said. Funds for the payment of coupon income on bonds maturing in 2027 and 2047 in the total amount of 12.51 billion rubles (the equivalent of $234.85 million) were received by the National Settlement Depository (NSD), the Ministry of Finance explained. He considers the obligations fulfilled in full.

The day before, Putin signed a decree on the temporary procedure for fulfilling obligations on Russia's external debt in foreign currency. For this, accounts of the “I” type are created, but in fact we are talking about payments in rubles. The Decree makes it possible to service sovereign Eurobonds of Russia registered in Euroclear/Clearstream depositories that have ceased to work with NSD without access to information from foreign depositories.

To whom such a scheme is beneficial and why it will not help to push back the impending default, we explained here .

11:06 Germany has raised the risk level in accordance with the national plan of action for limiting gas supplies to the second level of three. This was announced today by Economy Minister and Vice Chancellor Robert Habek. The second level implies a shortage of supplies or an increase in demand with sufficient reserves, the third and last one is a physical shortage and the need for savings up to selective blackouts under state control. The reason is the restriction of gas supplies from Russia.

9:42 Germany seriously fears that Gazprom will not compensate for the complete shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline for maintenance in July by increasing supplies through Ukraine and Poland, the Financial Times learned . The country considers this a political decision. “It looks like Russia wants to show Europe that without it, the EU will not fill underground gas storage,” Timm Köhler, head of gas trader Zukunft Gas, told the publication. “I think Russia is trying to frustrate the EU goal of filling UGS facilities by 90% by November 1 and weaken the union politically.”

Now UGSFs are only 58% full, and recipients are already forced to buy very expensive spot gas. If the EU enters the winter season without sufficient stocks, countries will have to stop the most energy-intensive industries - for example, steel mills, glass and cement plants.

Gazprom explained the decline in supplies to Europe via Nord Stream with equipment problems: according to the company, Siemens delayed the return from repair of gas pumping units.

9:28 Russia is looking for new markets not only for oil, but also for oil products, the purchases of which have been sharply reduced by Europe. In practice, we can only talk about the Middle East and Africa, since Asia produces more oil products than it consumes, writes Reuters.

According to the agency, since the beginning of the year, 550,000 tons of gasoline and naphtha have been sent to Oman and the UAE, while a year ago there were no such deliveries at all. In recent months, 200,000 tons of oil products per month have gone to Africa, the main buyers are Nigeria and Morocco, as well as Senegal, Sudan, Côte d'Ivoire and Togo. Deliveries of diesel fuel to Africa since the beginning of the year increased to 1 million tons from 0.8 million tons last year.

9:06 In Russia, there has been a shortage of carbon dioxide for carbonated drinks, the shortage is still estimated at 10-15%, learned Kommersant . Beverage producers say that this is due to a decrease in the production of fertilizers in Russia (food CO2 is a by-product) and the “coronavirus” transfer of capacity to the production of oxygen. But it is possible that this is the effect of the growth in the range of products designed to replace Coca-Cola drinks leaving Russia and the production of PepsiCo, which is curtailing bottling. About where the self-proclaimed competitor of Coca-Cola Funky Monkey came from, The Bell told here .

9:02 The main thing for the night and morning:

Svyaznoy was the first major retailer to confirm the start of electronics imports through parallel imports, writes Kommersant . The remaining retailers are not yet openly talking about selling goods imported in this way, as they are still counting on the resumption of relations with manufacturers, the newspaper notes. Svyaznoy added more than 100 commodity items to its assortment through parallel import channels. We are talking about Samsung smartphones and watches, the latest line of iPhones and PlayStation, Xbox and Nintendo game consoles. The devices will be 10-20% more expensive than similar devices imported before the “special operation” began.

- Signs of stagflation in the global economy, which the World Bank wrote about earlier , are also seen in the Russian Ministry of Finance. According to Vedomosti , the fact that the world economy is plunging into stagflation is stated in the draft of the main directions of the budget, tax and customs tariff policy prepared by the ministry for 2023-2025. The Ministry of Finance blames the policy of the largest Western states for stagflation. The agency notes that a decline or a sharp slowdown in GDP in a number of developed countries occurred already in the first quarter, and the scale of inflationary pressure reached an unprecedented level.

- Promsvyazbank may buy SMP-Bank from the Rotenberg family, learned Kommersant . According to the publication, the parties have been discussing the deal since December 2021, and at the beginning of 2022, PSB conducted a due diligence of SMP Bank, which took about two months. Both banks are now under the toughest sanctions, but this removes a number of questions about the deal rather than complicates it, the newspaper writes.

- The Baring Vostok Fund, which specializes in investing in Russia, intends to sell one of its assets - a stake in the First Client Bureau (PKB) collection company, sources told RBC and confirmed by a representative of Baring Vostok. PKB is one of the leaders in the collection market in Russia with a share of more than 10%. According to the representative, the fund started to study the possibility of implementing the package last year. RBC sources claim that the negotiations intensified after the start of the “special operation”.

- The Ministry of Labor has developed parameters for indexing pensions for non-working pensioners for the next three years, RBC reports with reference to the draft budget of the Pension Fund. It follows from the document that pensions will grow by an average of 6.8% per year. In addition, the document provides for an increase in the federal transfer to the PFR budget to 5 trillion rubles a year.

- Russians began to take microloans “to payday” more often, the trend manifested itself even more clearly than at the beginning of the pandemic. If in May 2020, 6% of clients of microfinance organizations asked for urgent payday loans, then in May 2022 this share exceeded 10%, Kommersant reports , citing a study of the Webbankir platform. According to the National Bureau of Credit Histories, in May 2022, 2.38 million payday loans were issued for 21.59 billion rubles. The main reason for the trend is high inflation, salaries do not keep pace with rising prices, experts explain.

— The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) claims that in Russia there is a significant and still unresolved problem in the field of ensuring flight safety. This, according to RBC , is stated in the closed bulletin of the organization dated June 15. We are talking about the fact that Russian aircraft are registered in the register of civil aircraft in more than one country, and therefore there is a problem of the validity of licenses for their radio equipment and airworthiness certificates in general.

Continued online June 23

20:01 The Finnish manufacturer of paints and varnishes Tikkurila, who previously curtailed work in the country as much as possible, announced a complete withdrawal from Russia. “Due to the impossibility of sustainable operation even at this minimum level, the company decided to activate the options for exit, including the sale of assets, from the Russian market,” the says message . Tikkurila has been owned by the American group PPG since 2021. The company has three factories in St. Petersburg.

19:11 in Russia again Weekly deflation (0.12%). The price cut has actually been going on for five weeks now.

18:21 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in the US Senate, called a recession "possible", and confirmed that the Fed will raise rates to curb inflation. There was nothing new and unexpected in the comments, the S&P 500 index has gained 0.5% since the opening of the session on Wednesday.

18:14 Inflation in Canada in May jumped to 7.7% in annual terms from 6.8% in April - the highest since 1983. Its main driver is fuel prices, but also increased prices for flights and hotel accommodation.

17:20 The broker "Finam" has limited the input and output of US dollars and euros from the account, writes "RBC Investments" with reference to the client mailing list. Dmitry Panterovsky, Deputy General Director for the brokerage business of Finam, assured that the restrictions are temporary and that all foreign currency on client accounts is completely safe. The broker writes that the measures are technical and justified by infrastructural restrictions, they did not affect transactions on the stock exchange, as well as transactions with the Russian currency. If necessary, the company's clients can sell their available dollars and euros and withdraw funds in rubles or convert them into another currency.

16:50 Putin signed a decree on the temporary procedure for fulfilling obligations on Russia's external share in foreign currency. For this, accounts of the “I” type are created, but in fact we are talking about payments in rubles.

“Obligations under Eurobonds of the Russian Federation are recognized as duly fulfilled if they are fulfilled in rubles, in an amount equivalent to the value of obligations in foreign currency and calculated at the foreign exchange rate formed in the domestic foreign exchange market of the Russian Federation on the day when the Russian Federation made payment to the central depository," the decree says.

Today, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told RBC that the next coupon payment at the end of June will be in rubles: “An investor can get it right away, he can think about it and come after some time. At the rate at the end of the current month, at the end of the payment, he will always be able to convert these rubles into the currency he wants, and calmly withdraw from the country, there are no restrictions.”

15:16 Vladimir Putin at the BRICS business forum announced the study of "the creation of an international reserve currency based on a basket of currencies of our countries" (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). The President spoke about alternative mechanisms for international settlements: the Central Bank Financial Message Transmission System (SPFS), the Mir payment system.

15:04 One of the most popular foreign brokers among Russians, the American Interactive Brokers, will stop accepting deposits in Russian rubles from July 31, writes RBC. There is no talk yet about stopping work with the Russians. About how and in what way foreign brokers limit Russian clients, The Bell wrote here .

14:50 The S&P 500 index has not had such a bad first half of the year since 1970 - during the Vietnam War and President Richard Nixon, writes Bloomberg. In the first half of the year, seven trading sessions remained with pessimistic expectations, and the S&P 500 has already fallen by 21% since the beginning of the year. An inflationary shock of the 1970s is fraught with a drop in the index by another third, warns Societe Generale strategist Manish Kabra.

14:15 Filling up a standard 55-liter tank of gasoline in the UK is becoming more expensive. Two weeks ago, the price of a tank passed the symbolically important 100 pounds, and now it has reached 104 pounds - that is, it is growing at a rate of 7% per month. The new peak coincided with a nationwide railroad strike and the resulting traffic jams.

Inflation in the country in annual terms in May, meanwhile, reached 9.1%: this is the level of "Thatcherism" of the early 1980s and the highest among the G7 countries. Prices for industrial raw materials and energy carriers rose by a record 22.1% since 1985.

14:01 Telegram channels Mash and Baza learned the details of the upcoming sale of IKEA leftovers in Moscow and St. Petersburg. From June 27 to July 1, it will be held physically, at a discount, but only for company employees. From July 1, an online sale for everyone will begin. We talked about the main milestones in the long history of IKEA in the USSR and Russia here .

12:56 Citigroup economists believe that the probability of a global recession is approaching 50%. “Historical parallels show that disinflation significantly limits growth, so we estimate the overall probability of a recession closer to 50%,” the release says. “Central banks are still able to arrange, if not the soft landing, then the soft landing envisaged by their (and our) forecasts, but this requires the easing of supply shocks and the stability of demand.” This year, economists predict global GDP growth by 3%, in 2023 - by 2.8%.

12:36 Dubai has become the "new Switzerland" for traders trading in Russian raw materials, mainly oil, writes Bloomberg. According to the agency, a delegation of Rosneft managers visited Dubai in May to study the creation of a trader in the emirate, and Gazprom Neft is also considering this possibility. Lukoil trader Litasco is partly transferring staff from Geneva to Dubai, while grain trader Solaris Commodities opened an office there last week.

About little-known companies that, after the departure of Trafigura and Vitol, began trading in Russian oil, we wrote here .

12:00 Central Bank plans to change OSAGO tariffs due to the increase in the price of spare parts. The corridor of the basic OSAGO tariff for most categories of car owners is proposed to be expanded by 26% up and down. For passenger cars, the base rate will be in the range of 1,646–7,535 rubles.

on social networks is published 11:01 A video of an alleged kamikaze drone strike on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov region . The Ministry of Emergency Situations confirmed that there was a fire at the refinery - there were no dead or injured, open burning has already been eliminated. The cause of the fire is being specified.

Novoshakhtinsk refinery (7.5 million tons per year) is located on the very border with Ukraine, is the only one in the Rostov region of Russia and was associated with the structures of Viktor Medvedchuk. Ukraine imposed sanctions against him for the supply of products to the DPR and LPR.

10:52 The ruble continues to grow: the dollar on the stock exchange has broken through the mark of 53 rubles, the euro is approaching 55 rubles.

At the same time, oil prices accelerated their decline amid growing risks of a recession in the US and other countries. A barrel of Brent fell 5%, falling below $109 for the first time since mid-May.

8:55 Highlights for the night and morning:

- The day before yesterday, Anton Siluanov said that the Russian tax system is not unshakable, but what he had in mind, the minister did not specify then. Interfax and Kommersant learned that a tax increase in 2022 is being prepared at least for Gazprom: they want to collect an additional 416 billion rubles from the company due to high gas prices. Such amendments to the Tax Code were prepared by the Ministry of Finance. Gazprom planned to pay a record dividend of 52.53 rubles per share this year. It is not yet clear whether he will keep these plans if he has to pay an additional 416 billion rubles in taxes. According to the expert, payments can be reduced by 7 rubles per share.

- IKEA has begun to notify landlords of shopping centers where shops and studios are located about their desire to terminate lease agreements ahead of schedule, writes Vedomosti . We are talking about unilateral termination, which means large fines for IKEA, sources say.

- The VEB.RF Institute suggested that the authorities create a crypto-gold ruble, learned RBC . The publication got acquainted with the report of the Institute for Research and Expertise VEB.RF, which provides recommendations to the authorities on the formation of a new national financial and monetary system. In particular, VEB analysts propose issuing a gold-backed stablecoin under the working title "golden ruble".

- UAC decided on how to localize the production of the SSJ100 aircraft. For its import-substituted version, it will be necessary to replace 64 foreign-made components and components with Russian ones, their development will cost 50 billion rubles, excluding Russian engines, reports . Vedomosti

- Coca-Cola drinks will not be included in the list of goods subject to parallel imports, the Ministry of Agriculture told TASS. Last week, the distributor of Coca-Cola announced the company's final withdrawal from the Russian market. Business Ombudsman Boris Titov suggested that Coca-Cola products could be imported to Russia using the parallel import mechanism.

Shareholders of Activision Blizzard, publisher of World of Warcraft and Call of Duty video games, have demanded an anti-harassment report, reports CNBC . It should show how much money the gaming giant has spent to resolve workplace discrimination and harassment cases, and how many more cases are pending. The company was at the center of a harassment scandal last year. What happened - we told here .

- According to Pavel Durov, to cover the costs of the messenger, it is enough that 2.5-3% of users out of 700 million subscribe to a premium subscription. The cost of a subscription ranges from 299 to 449 rubles per month, depending on the registration method. Thus, the cost of Telegram per month can range from 5.2 billion to 9.4 billion rubles.

Continued online June 22

20:06 The Ministry of Internal Affairs estimated the shortage of IT specialists in Russia at 170,000 people. As the reason for the mass departure, the head of the department, Igor Zubov, named sanctions, and in general, according to him, 1 million people are employed in the industry. Zubov also asked the Federation Council to support a legislative initiative on a simplified procedure for granting a residence permit in Russia for foreign IT specialists in order to fill the shortage of personnel.

At SPIEF 2022, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko called reports about the outflow of IT specialists from Russia “stuffing”, and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, referring to data on SIM cards, said at the end of May that the vast majority – about 85% of IT specialists who had previously left – had already returned back.

about how, where and why IT specialists leave Russia . told The project “Russian norms!”

18:37 Lukoil shareholders agreed not to pay dividends for 2021 and leave 400 billion rubles of net profit undistributed.

17:58 The euro dropped to 57 rubles for the first time since May 2015.

UPD: the dollar is below 54 rubles.

16:45 The largest banks in Russia in terms of the volume of money in the accounts of the population have limited or completely stopped foreign exchange transfers within the country, found out Frank Media . Of the 20 banks surveyed by the editors together with Frank RG analysts, the option of a currency transfer to another Russian bank for citizens was removed by seven players. Two banks warn of possible difficulties, and another three ask to convert the currency into rubles, which deprives the currency transfer of meaning and makes it more expensive due to the difference in exchange rates, the journalists say.

List of banks where it is now impossible to make a cashless transfer in foreign currency without converting to another Russian bank:

• VTB;
• Gazprombank;
• Alfa Bank;
• RSHB;
• Promsvyazbank;
• ICD;
• Sovcombank;
• UniCredit Bank;
• Citibank.

16:24 Lithuania has extended restrictions on the transportation of sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad for truck transit, was told Interfax in the press service of the regional government. Information to the agency was also confirmed at once in several companies involved in road transportation. The Lithuanian customs, according to them, is already deploying vehicles on the Belarusian-Lithuanian border at the Medininkai checkpoint, where as a result a large line of freight trains has formed.

Road transport was considered in Russia as one of the options for circumventing the ban. True, the fact that the Lithuanian side began to deploy trucks with fittings going to the region was warned by experts the day before.

16:00 Russian authorities are arguing about what to do with the ruble, which continues to strengthen despite the easing of foreign exchange restrictions. According to Bloomberg, among others, , was discussed even the option of establishing a multiple ruble exchange rate, following the example of Iran , but this method was found to be ineffective. The idea of ​​obliging exporters to convert their income into yuan was also considered, but was excluded.

15:16 The State Duma immediately adopted a law allowing parallel imports in the second and third readings. It "will protect Russian companies that import goods without the permission of the copyright holder from possible civil, administrative and criminal liability."

The largest Russian marketplaces are already setting up parallel imports, but it will be noticeably more expensive, and the assortment will obviously be smaller. about whether parallel imports will save the Russian market We talked using the example of the electronics sector. The main problem with such imports is not even that some gadget cannot be bought, but in the guarantee, support and maintenance of products imported bypassing brands. Not to mention Russia's loss of the status of a priority market: new products will reach it with a delay, as in the early 2000s.

13:46 Switzerland for the first time since the end of February imported Russian gold, writes Bloomberg. A batch of more than 3 tons of precious metal was sent for refining in May. Most refineries refused to accept Russian gold after the London Bullion Market Association banned the sale of Russian refinery bullion. However, its resolution does not prohibit the processing of Russian gold, and Switzerland occupies 70% of this market.

Separately, Reuters writes that gold may be included in the seventh package of EU sanctions against Russia.

13:32 According to the "Agency", the Chairman of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin was the only one of the high-ranking officials who warned Vladimir Putin about the extremely unfavorable impact of the war in Ukraine on the Russian economy. a diluted release about it According to sources, Kudrin began preparing for this meeting back in March, but it actually took place before the summer, and the Kremlin published only on June 14. Despite his disagreement, Kudrin is not going to resign. He considers it useful to remain in office and try to influence the situation.

Kudrin believes that Putin is now incredibly lucky with the conjuncture. But at the same time, I am sure that the consequences for the economy will be harder than it seems, a source in expert circles told The Bell.

12:59 According to Frank Media, problems with currency transfers to Russian banks also affected Sberbank: “It is recommended to convert currency into rubles, and only then transfer it to another Russian bank,” the agency refers to a bank employee. However, the transfers are not stopped, and their passage depends on the specific case. In response to frequently asked questions from users on the Sberbank website , it is indicated that due to sanctions restrictions, "currency transfers to some banks of the Russian Federation may not be available."

12:39 Turkey is now "much more cautious" in its approach to the supply of Bayraktar TB-2 attack drones to Ukraine, follows from an interview with the head of the Turkish Defense Industry Directorate, Ismail Demir, to The Wall Street Journal. “I believe that Turkey is the only country that can call both sides and invite them to the negotiating table. This is unlikely to continue if you massively supply weapons to one of them, ”the WSJ quoted a senior official as saying.

Demir did not give any figures, but the publication pointed to the context of his statement: Ukraine accused Turkey of buying up “stolen” Ukrainian grain; Türkiye is trying to mediate between Ukraine and Russia in unblocking Ukrainian grain exports; Türkiye is conducting a military operation in Syria, impossible without coordination with Russia; Russia has achieved certain military successes in the Donbass.

12:17 Frank Media reports that VTB Bank has stopped transfers in all foreign currencies to accounts in other Russian banks. The movement of funds is possible only with the conversion into rubles. The agency indicates that information on currency restrictions is available on the bank's website: "due to the introduction of international sanctions against VTB Bank, operations in some foreign currencies are limited, with the exception of Belarusian rubles and Kazakhstani tenge."

VTB has been on the US blocking sanctions list (SDN list) since the end of February, and in April it also came under EU blocking sanctions.

11:45 Elon Musk, Nouriel Roubini and analysts at Goldman Sachs announced the growing risk of a recession in the United States at the Qatar Economic Forum on the same day.

• Musk, who recently wrote about the “very bad feeling” about the global economy, told Bloomberg that a recession is inevitable in principle, and in the near future “it will come rather than not come.”
• The Goldman team put the chance of a recession within a year at 30%, and assuming it doesn't happen in the first year, at 25% the next year.
• Economist Nouriel Roubini is confident that a recession in the US will come before the end of the year, as indicated by data on consumer sentiment, retail sales, industrial production and the real estate sector.
• US President Joe Biden said again yesterday that a recession is not inevitable.

11:20 Kommersant learned that the German Linde (a key manufacturer of gas separation and liquefaction equipment) refused to work with Gazprom on the design and construction of an LNG plant in Ust-Luga. In March, the company announced the cessation of development in Russia, but so far has not refused key contracts. The LNG plant project is a key one (the gas chemical complex under construction is focused on the ethane and liquefied hydrocarbon gases produced at it), so it will have to be completed relying on our own resources and friendly foreign contractors.

11:17 The exchange rate of the dollar, which broke through the level of 55 rubles (for the first time since June 2015) shortly after the opening of trading, touched the level of 54.7.

11:01 The Ministry of Economic Development of the Kaliningrad Region has published a complete list of goods that are prohibited from being transported in transit through Lithuania. As expected, it is very wide: in addition to building materials, it includes metal products, expensive household appliances, alcohol and other items. About how serious the restrictions on transit are, and how much they will cost Russia, we wrote in the evening mailing list .

The main thing for the night and morning:

• The government and the Central Bank have decided on the mechanism of negative rates on foreign currency deposits of legal entities: they will still charge interest, but bank commissions will be able to exceed them. Individuals will not be affected by this, the Central Bank promised.
• The Nobel Peace Medal of Novaya Gazeta Editor-in-Chief Dmitry Muratov was sold at Heritage Auctions in the United States for $103.5 million, a historic record for a Nobel Prize. The money will go to help countries where there are refugees from Ukraine through UNICEF.
• At the end of the week, EU member states are likely to approve the status of a candidate country for Ukraine to join the European Union, learned Bloomberg . However, the list of conditions for the country will be extensive - among other things, this is the adoption of European-style anti-money laundering legislation, anti-oligarchic laws, strengthening the independence of the media and guaranteeing the rights of national minorities.
• Russia faces a crisis of overproduction of pork due to a combination of increased production with reduced exports amid difficulties with logistics and lower domestic demand, writes Kommersant . By the end of the year, the average annual wholesale prices for pork may decrease by 5–10%, the surplus may amount to 5% of production or 250,000 tons.
• Import substitution of electronics is bearing fruit - in China, Bloomberg learned . The country's chip industry is growing at the fastest pace in the world: 19 of the 20 fastest growing chip manufacturers in the world over the past four quarters are Chinese, and we are talking about sales growth of tens of percent, or even several times.
• A referendum on the entry of the Kherson region into Russia is planned to be held this fall, Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the military-civilian administration of the region, told RIA Novosti. He did not name specific dates, but we can talk about a single day of voting.

Continued online June 21

22:14 The largest mobile operators have begun to charge for a SIM card when concluding a contract for communication services, reports Kommersant with reference to cellular companies. Previously, operators subsidized the provision of SIM cards to their customers. But in recent months, the cost of SIM cards for operators has increased by 3.5 times due to the fact that they had to abandon purchases from Western manufacturers and switch to Chinese counterparts.

22:09 The head of the Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov , said that 94 people were evacuated from the drilling platforms of Chernomorneftegaz, three people were injured, seven were missing. In the morning, he reported that "the enemy struck at the drilling platforms." Russian investigators opened a criminal case on the shelling of the platforms by the Ukrainian military.

21:19 The Decathlon chain has confirmed that it will close its stores in Russia from June 27 due to the inability to continue supply.

19:46 On Monday, the Ministry of Justice unexpectedly added to the register of foreign media agents (usually this happens on Fridays). The organization “First Scientific”, created by blogger Yevgeny Ponasenkov (who has also been included in the register of foreign media agents since April), is recognized as a foreign agent.

18:02 Some Russians began to consider the sanctions overcome.

The share of economic "optimists" in Russia in May exceeded the share of "pessimists" and reached 34-35%, Re-Russia writes, citing polls by FOM and Levada Center (recognized as a foreign agent). The sudden peak of Russian optimism has two sources: rallying around the flag and the feeling that the consequences of the sanctions have already been overcome. Read more about it here .

17:54 Foreign securities of Russian investors may move to Kazakhstan, Frank Media reports citing sources. According to the publication, the St. Petersburg Exchange, Freedom Holding and other market participants are discussing the idea of ​​creating a new exchange based on the Astana International Financial Center.

It is assumed that the new exchange, where foreign securities from the St. Petersburg Exchange can be transferred, will allow Russian investors to trade in foreign instruments. In addition, Russian companies will be able to attract foreign capital on this platform. The investment hub will be able to trade foreign securities “in all time zones”, and Russian brokers who have or will specifically create branches in Kazakhstan, Cyprus and other offshore zones will be able to provide investors with access to foreign securities bypassing Russian infrastructure, sources say .

The Central Bank informally supported the idea of ​​creating such an investment hub in Kazakhstan, Frank Media notes. The sources of the publication believe that the initiative is feasible: Freedom Holding has connections in Kazakhstan and a client base, and the St. Petersburg Exchange has technological solutions.

17:13 Yandex signed an agreement to buy back 93.2% of convertible bonds. Last week an agreement was reached with the holders of 84.9% of the bonds. The deal to buy back 93.2% of the bonds is scheduled to close on June 22, as its main conditions have already been met, the company said. Under the terms, for every $200,000 of the face value of the bonds, holders will receive $140,000 and 957 Yandex NV shares.

Problems with convertible bonds arose after the freeze in early March of trading in shares of Russian companies in the US. Yandex then warned investors about the risk of default: if trading stops for more than five days, holders of all bonds issued by the company (for $ 1.25 billion) could demand redemption. However, the company managed to negotiate with investors. We talked about the situation at Yandex in more detail here .

15:46 The federal budget of Russia is facing four years of deficit in a row: in 2023-2025, the excess of spending over income will be about 1% of GDP, said Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov at a meeting of the budget committee in the State Duma. This year the deficit could reach 2%.

President Vladimir Putin, in a keynote speech at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, announced victory over "insane sanctions" that failed to "crush" the Russian economy. Among the arguments, he cited the Russian budget, which, despite pressure, is in surplus after five months of 2022.

15:14 Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Zabotkin explained in the State Duma why the targeting of the exchange rate, which was hinted at by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, is dangerous.

“You have to understand that any ideas related to rate targeting will inevitably, if implemented, lead to a decrease in efficiency and loss of economic policy sovereignty,” Zabotkin said. “If the fixed exchange rate is determined by some predetermined range, we are essentially abandoning independent monetary policy in favor of the country to whose currency we tie our rate.” In addition, the "reserve" currencies themselves have changed: due to high inflation, their purchasing power has ceased to be sustainable. If we tie the exchange rate to the currency of the economy with inflation of 8-10%, our inflation will be the same, the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank noted.

Meanwhile, the exchange rate of the dollar on Monday was declining and touched the mark of 55.5 rubles per dollar.

14:59 Ministry of Finance did not rule out changes in tax rates in the coming years

The Ministry of Finance adjusts the tax policy to the tasks of the current day, and it is impossible to talk about its inviolability in the coming years, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said during a meeting of the budget committee in the State Duma, promising that decisions on taxes would be balanced.

“We always adjust the tax policy to the tasks of the current day that we are going to solve, so it would probably be wrong to say that taxes are an unshakable component. We are conducting tax maneuvers, increasing taxation in some places, and reducing it in others, taking into account the decisions that the current period requires. In the upcoming three-year period, we will discuss these issues in detail, meet with business, review our priorities in financial and economic policy and make informed decisions,” the minister said.

Uncertainty with tax rates for 2023-2025 worsens the conditions for doing business, the Chairman of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin is concerned. “If we have uncertainty in terms of tax rates today, this reduces investment incentives,” he stressed.

14:43 Anton Siluanov in the State Duma: "It is impossible to talk about the immutability of the tax policy in the coming years, but the decisions will be balanced." What might be meant, Alexei Kudrin clarified: the draft budget contains a proposal to increase the profit tax for underinvesting companies. The Ministry of Finance was developing this option last fall.

14:25 Gazprom has not reserved additional transit through Ukraine for July. “This is further evidence that gas flows from Russia will remain limited for weeks after the reduction in supplies through Nord Stream 1, which is now operating at 40% of capacity,” writes Bloomberg . Gazprom could replace half of the retired transit via Nord Stream 1 by increasing transit through the Sudzha GDS. on the border with Ukraine.

14:05 The head of the Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, confirmed the attack on the drilling platforms of Chornomorneftegaz. “I am in touch with colleagues from the Ministry of Defense and the FSB, we are working on saving people. 5 people were rescued, three of them were injured,” he wrote. According to updated data, the BK-1 platform at the Odessa field suffered the main blow - presumably, missiles from the Ukrainian side, BK-2 and BK-3 were less affected. The platforms were put into operation before the annexation of Crimea to Russia, Ukraine considers them annexed.

12:35 Dmitry Peskov called Lithuania's decision on the transport blockade of Kaliningrad "unprecedented and illegal". He said that the restriction of transit requires a serious analysis, the Russian authorities will conduct it within a few days.

Last Friday, it became known that the Lithuanian Railways notified the Kaliningrad Railways about the termination of the transit of trains with goods subject to EU sanctions from midnight on June 18. Lithuania stated that the decision on this was agreed with the European Commission.

Today, Senator Andrei Klishas called Lithuania's actions a violation of Russia's sovereignty over this region (Kaliningrad region) and said that this "may be the basis for very tough and absolutely legal actions on the part of Russia." From 40% to 50% of transit cargoes fall under the ban, said the governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov.

12:13 First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, in an interview with Interfax , said that the optimal ruble exchange rate is now in the range of 70-80 rubles per dollar, and it needs to be reached as soon as possible.

He stated that inflation targeting with blocked reserves of the Central Bank has ceased to work, and did not rule out "rethinking" the mechanism for the stability of the ruble and developing a new one, "in which there is a place for an equilibrium exchange rate." So Belousov answered the question about the possible targeting of the course.

Central Bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday that there is no need to specifically weaken the ruble: “The position of the Central Bank is that we are targeting inflation, but we are not targeting the exchange rate. The ruble must remain floating.”

11:53 After restricting gas supplies from Gazprom to the Austrian OMV, Austria will reactivate the coal-fired thermal power plant in Mellach, which was stopped two years ago. So far, Austria has pumped only 39% of the required gas into UGSFs. its coal stations . restarts Germany also

10:38 Airbus A380 four-engine aircraft are returning from mothballing to service, writes Bloomberg. Cirium estimates that by the end of the year, A380s will be on 60% of pre-pandemic flights, and in some airlines - such as British Airways - and will exceed the previous number. The main beneficiary of the restoration of passenger traffic on the A380 will be the largest operator - Emirates.

The main thing by the morning of June 20:

• Parallel imports of products of brands that left Russia were taken up by Russian marketplaces. This means that the market will remain quite civilized, but delivery will rise in price by 5-50%, and the assortment will be greatly reduced.
• French President Emmanuel Macron's coalition has lost its absolute majority in parliament after parliamentary elections. With 38.6% of the vote, it remained the largest bloc, but Jean-Luc Mélenchon's Left Opposition bloc won 31.6% and Marine Le Pen's National Rally 17.3%. The "president without a majority" configuration is not typical of the French political scene, and torpedoes Macron's unpopular reforms. A separate question is how much his bloc suffered from the unconditional support of Ukraine.
• The St. Petersburg Economic Forum, which ended over the weekend, turned out to be as strange as possible, and its heroes were the leadership of the DPR and the delegation of the Taliban movement (recognized as terrorist in Russia). Traditionally, the main event was the plenary session with the participation of Vladimir Putin, but the most interesting began later. about the really important things at SPIEF 2022 . spoke The Bell
• After a wild weekend with 15% fluctuations, on Monday morning, Bitcoin remained at $20,000. The Bell dedicated the latest issue of the techno-dispatch to the state of the crypto market : more and more evidence that another crypto winter is coming on it. This is a time to "clear" the playing field and the emergence of new leaders, but ordinary investors will only suffer, warns Bloomberg. On depreciated tokens, they lose tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars.
• The Wall Street Journal poll (44% of economists predicted a recession in the US in the next 12 months) adds to a number of predictions that came out after the last Fed rate hike. Such an indicator in the WSJ polls was rarely observed outside of a recession that had already begun. So, in December 2007, the month of the beginning of a recession that lasted until 2009, its probability was estimated at 38%, in February 2020 - at 26%.
• China's foreign trade statistics showed a tenfold increase in alumina exports since the beginning of the year - up to 380,000 tons. It can only be explained by the search for new sources of raw materials by Russian aluminum producers in the face of sanctions.
• Albert Avdolyan's A-Property intends to build a private railroad by 2025 to transport coal from the Elga coal deposit to the coast of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk and a specialized port. The company has no particular choice: coal from the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway is crowding out other cargoes, benefits for it have been canceled. Last year, the project was estimated at 100 billion rubles.
• Telegram has launched a paid Telegram Premium subscription. Why is it needed and what is worth knowing about it, we told here .

Online for June 14–19 can be viewed here .