The price of a “special operation” in Ukraine. Online

The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, which began on February 24

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19:00 On July 15, the State Duma plans to meet for an extraordinary plenary session to consider "urgent issues."

On July 6, the spring session of the State Duma ended and the deputies went on vacation. appeared on the website of the lower house of parliament But today, news that the State Duma Council will consider tomorrow the issue of holding an extraordinary plenary session on July 15.

Its necessity was explained by the fact that "issues have accumulated that require urgent solutions." “Including government initiatives will be considered,” the report says. What exactly is not specified.

18:15 France is preparing for a complete cessation of gas supplies from Russia, French Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire said on Sunday. According to him, the authorities consider a complete cessation of supplies as the most likely scenario.

France is less dependent on Russian gas supplies than many of its neighbors, accounting for only 17% of the country's gas imports. Nevertheless, France is preparing a plan of action in the event of a cessation of supplies from Russia. First of all, the reduction of energy consumption by households and enterprises is discussed. The next item is the construction of a new infrastructure for LNG processing.

17:53 Another indicator of high inflation in Europe: a traditional English breakfast has risen in price by 18% over the year, writes Bloomberg. Now his groceries - toast, butter, eggs, sausages, bacon and coffee or tea - cost £19.1 ($22.96), almost £3 more than a year ago.

The rise in the cost of a traditional breakfast is outpacing the overall rate of inflation in the UK, which is at its highest level in four decades. Britain is going through the current crisis worse than all the G7 countries. In comparison, the rise in prices for coffee, croissants and other breakfast products in France is measured in single digits, the agency notes.

17:41 Tinkov spoke about the state of his health two years after the bone marrow transplant. According to him, a recent test showed a complete remission, there is only GVHD of the eye (graft-versus-host disease). The businessman advised those currently undergoing treatment not to give up.

16:12 EU countries are working to tighten control over compliance with sanctions against Russia, writes WSJ. Among other things, the idea of ​​creating a centralized body that could monitor the implementation of restrictions is being considered. Another option for tightening sanctions is also being explored: under current EU rules, a company can be included in the sanctions list if the shareholder who falls under the sanctions owns 50% or more in it. The Netherlands proposes to lower the ownership threshold to 25%. The most difficult to enforce were sanctions involving the identification and freezing of assets owned by Russian oligarchs and companies, the newspaper notes.

How sanctions against Russia work, we told here .

14:57 In addition to MTS, VK and Rostelecom are bidding for the purchase of ivi, three sources familiar with the negotiations told The Bell. So far, they are at the initial stage: ivi shareholders are collecting proposals from all interested parties, and there are many applicants, one of the interlocutors says. More about this - here .

13:50 US President Joe Biden will visit Saudi Arabia next week. He has already stated that he is not going to specifically ask King Salman or Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whom the US believes were directly involved in the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, to increase oil production. But it is obvious that all the attention of the world will be riveted on whether the exporters of the Persian Gulf will go towards the West and assume obligations to compensate for the volumes of Russian oil falling from the market. What is important to know about the visit, we tell here .

11:40 Roskomnadzor, at the request of the Prosecutor General's Office, blocked the website of the German publication Die Welt in Russia.

10:30 am Highlights for the morning

• Against the backdrop of protests in Sri Lanka, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa promised to resign on July 13, the speaker of the country's parliament, Mahinda Yapa Abeiwardena, said the day before. Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe is also set to step down when a new government is formed, but four ministers from his government have already resigned .
• Joe Biden is preparing for a visit to Saudi Arabia, which is due to begin on July 13. In an article for The Washington Post, Biden said the visit, which has been widely criticized in the US, is important in terms of countering Russian aggression.
• Canada decided to return to Germany the Siemens turbine for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, which remained in the country after repairs due to sanctions.
• More than 20 employees of human rights organizations and lawyers came out in favor of recognizing the article on "fakes" about the armed forces (207.3 of the Criminal Code) as unconstitutional and for the release of municipal deputy Alexei Gorinov. On Friday, Moscow's Meshchansky Court sentenced Gorinov to seven years in a penal colony. in detail about the process . spoke Mediazona (recognized as a foreign agent in Russia)

Continued online July 10

20:26 After the protests that swept the country, the President of Sri Lanka decided to resign on July 13, said the speaker of the country's parliament, Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena. Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe is also about to step down.

20:00 How Gazprom shareholders were left without dividends

Last week, for the first time since 1998, the state decided to leave Gazprom's shareholders without dividends, appropriating them entirely. Every third private investor has a Gazprom share in its portfolio, and in general, Russian residents could lose more than 300 billion rubles - not counting losses due to the collapsed quotations of the concern. Market participants call this a deception of investors and a violation of the Constitution. The authors of the Bell.Investments mailing list Alexandra Chunova and Vyacheslav Dvornikov explain why the state decided to anger the army of Gazprom investors and what conclusions they should draw from this.

18:00 The situation in the real estate market this summer is reminiscent of what happened before the global financial crisis. Before you make a deal, you should keep in mind that now this market is one of the most “overheated” in the world. In many countries, the housing market is in a “bubble”: an analysis by Bloomberg Economics in 19 OECD countries showed that the ratio of home value to rent payments, as well as to income, is now higher in many countries than before the global financial crisis. The most "overheated" market is in New Zealand, as well as in some countries popular among Russians in terms of buying real estate - the Czech Republic, Portugal, Austria, etc. Russia was in the list in 9th place. more about what is happening with the market and how to assess the fair value of housing now Read on our website.

14:55 British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, one of the leading candidates for prime minister after the resignation of Boris Johnson, refused to be nominated. “It was not an easy choice, but the main thing for me is my current job and the protection of our great country,” he wrote.

13:23 Fitch downgraded Turkey's sovereign rating, already in the trash category, to B from B+ with a negative outlook. “Driven by political motives, the Central Bank of the country has kept the base rate at 14% since December 2021, despite rapidly rising inflation, the effects of the war in Ukraine on commodity markets and monetary tightening in most developed economies,” the rating agency writes. Since the beginning of the year, the lira has lost 20% against the dollar, inflation in annual terms has approached 80%.

12:12 In Sri Lanka, which has declared default and is gripped by a financial, energy and food crisis, protesters have taken the presidential palace. They are demanding the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who has reportedly gone into hiding. Law enforcement officers use tear gas, dozens injured, there are no reports of casualties.

This week, Rajapaksa asked Vladimir Putin for the supply of oil, oil products, grain, fertilizers, as well as loans.

11:53 Canada will return the gas pumping unit for Nord Stream 1 through Germany, which will allow not to violate the sanctions regime against Russia, Reuters learned. Then Germany will transfer the unit to Gazprom. The delay in the return of the GPA "Gazprom" explained the reduction in pumping through the gas pipeline to 40%.

Meanwhile, on July 11, the gas pipeline comes to a complete halt for scheduled maintenance, and Germany is increasingly fearful that supplies will not resume. “Decades of a stable energy partnership went down the drain in a matter of months,” notes Bloomberg. “The German authorities no longer have an understanding of Putin’s plans, lines of communication with Gazprom have been cut, and officials treat Russia as a black box.”

10:07 Elon Musk refused to buy Twitter for $44 billion, citing the underestimation of the share of bots and spam accounts as the reason. Twitter immediately responded that it would take legal action.

The real reason for the refusal, most likely, was the reduction in the price of Twitter by 10% and Tesla Musk by 30% since the deal was announced in April - thus, it would have cost the billionaire too much. In court, Twitter will be able to prove that Musk’s bet harmed the company, so the Tesla founder is unlikely to get off with a contract penalty of $1 billion. A likely outcome is in which the court will oblige Musk to fulfill the purchase obligation with modified conditions.

Continued online July 9

19:05 According to the results of June, Rosstat, as expected, recorded deflation - at 0.35%. In annual terms, inflation slowed to 15.9% from 17.1% in May. In June, prices for fruits and vegetables decreased significantly - by 9.57%. Added to this was a drop in prices for non-food products (by 0.41%). And, if it were not for the increase in prices for services in the tourism sector (foreign tourism - + 10.35%, sanatoriums - + 8.93%), then the deflation would be even more significant.

Deflation in June in Russia was recorded for the first time in the history of observations since 1991. The decrease in prices for vegetables is usually fixed in August and less often in September.

There is nothing good in deflation: it speaks of a reduction in demand in the economy. If deflation drags on, manufacturers lose money, reduce investment and staff, unemployment rises, and as a result, demand falls even more - a deflationary spiral is set up that can take years to get out of. True, the Central Bank does not yet see signs of a spiral.

18:51 Illegal lending and pyramid schemes are gaining popularity in Russia. The activities of illegal brokers, on the contrary, began to decline. Financial fraud was discussed today at a round table with the participation of representatives of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

What did the Central Bank say?

According to a representative of the Central Bank, there is an increase in illegal lending in Russia, and the trend, according to the regulator, will continue in the near future. Illegal, or black, creditors are companies that operate without a license from the Central Bank, they offer their services mainly in social networks and instant messengers.

The second problem that was discussed at the round table is the growth in the number of financial pyramids. According to the Central Bank, Russians lose 10-15 billion rubles a year on investments in such organizations. The life cycle of such pyramids is usually no more than 2.5–3 months, and some close even faster: “Their task is to quickly collect money and disappear.”

What schemes are used by scammers?

• Illegal lenders can offer a pseudo-service of “clearing credit history,” the Central Bank said: scammers offer to clear credit history for a small amount, take money and disappear.
• After their collapse, the organizers of financial pyramids use the personal data of the victims for another type of fraud - they offer them legal assistance, take money for it and disappear.
• Also, a mechanism is gaining popularity in which scammers offer to close a loan for 30% of the loan value.
• There is also a scheme in which scammers pose as employees of mobile operators, inform a potential victim that their phone number will soon expire, and in order to extend it, they offer the person to enter a combination of several digits. Thus, they connect call forwarding and text messages with bank codes. As a result, the fraudster gains access to the bank account of the owner of the number.

17:35 Last week, for the first time since 1998, the state decided to leave Gazprom's shareholders without dividends, appropriating them entirely. Every third private investor has a Gazprom share in its portfolio, and in general, Russian residents could lose more than 300 billion rubles - not counting losses due to the collapsed quotations of the concern. Market participants call this a deception of investors and a violation of the Constitution.

The authors of the Bell.Investments mailing list Alexandra Chunova and Vyacheslav Dvornikov explain why the state decided to anger the army of Gazprom investors and what conclusions they should draw from this.

16:23 Canada has imposed new sanctions against Russia, which, in particular, restrict the import of certain types of gold and jewelry. Subject to personal sanctions:

• former head of Yandex Tigran Khudaverdyan;
• Minister of Digital Development Maksut Shadayev;
• head of the All-Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company Oleg Dobrodeev;
• Foreign Ministry representative Maria Zakharova;
• Interior Ministry representative Irina Volk;
• journalists Ekaterina Andreeva, Alexei Pimanov, Artem Sheinin, Tigran Keosayan, Olga Skabeeva, Anton Krasovsky and Arkady Mamontov;
• Patriarch Kirill.

Of the companies under the new restrictions, Russian media mainly fell - Channel One, Russia 1, Russia 24, NTV, TASS, VGTRK, Vesti.ru, RT, Sputnik and Regnum.

Also on the sanctions list were Gazprom Media, National Media Group, Rossotrudnichestvo and Roskomnadzor.

14:26 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow is ready for negotiations with Ukraine and Turkey on the export of grain from Ukraine, but found it difficult to name their terms. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said he discussed the issue with Lavrov in Indonesia at the G20, and is also in contact with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba. The latter, speaking at the G20 ministerial meeting, again accused Russia of breaking supply chains in world food markets and stealing grain.

13:07 US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will visit Asian countries for the first time on a 10-day visit. One of the main goals of the trip is to promote the price ceiling for Russian oil in the region, which is becoming its main buyer, writes Bloomberg. She will also attend the G20 Finance Ministers Summit on July 15-16 in Bali.

11:50 Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has died after an assassination attempt in a hospital in Nara Prefecture. This was reported by the Japanese media channel NHK.

11:10 The euro exchange rate against the dollar fell to $1.01. The last time this level was at the end of 2002.

10:59 After the opening of trading on Friday, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange fell below 61 rubles, the euro was about 62. Brent oil costs about $104 per barrel.

The main thing for the night and morning

• The ex-Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe, whose name is associated with the warming of relations with Russia, was assassinated, his condition is serious. The shooter from a homemade shotgun was detained, he turned out to be a 42-year-old former soldier of the maritime self-defense forces.
• Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter falls apart, talks stall, has learned The Washington Post . The buyer believes that the data provided by the company is not enough to assess the share of bots on the platform and its prospects. In addition, Twitter's quotes have declined since the purchase offer, and now Musk would have to pay a lot more.
• Production at the Sakhalin-1 project is practically paralyzed after the operator, the American ExxonMobil, recalled its specialists. The day before, Deputy Prime Minister for the Far East Yuri Trutnev acknowledged not only a 22-fold drop in production and the threat of Sakhalin losing a quarter of budget revenues, but also the risk of leaving part of the oil in the reservoir forever. There is no decision on the project: Russia needs to find not just an investor, but an operator with offshore experience who is not afraid of sanctions.
• Sberbank has officially announced that it will reuse chips from unclaimed plastic cards. The largest bank in Russia collects 375,000 such cards per month, which at today's prices for "plastic" recycling will save 1 billion rubles a year. Some of the chips can be overwritten by deleting all personal information, but up to 40% of the cards go to waste with such processing.
• Russian carriers, in the face of declining cargo flows, are massively selling trucks, especially "long-range" truck tractors, writes Vedomosti . Meanwhile, clouds are gathering in the western direction: Lithuania continues to resist the “green corridors” to Kaliningrad for Russian cargo, and Russia is considering a retaliatory total ban on transit through the Baltics.
• Canada, at the request of Germany - and despite the objections of the Ukrainian authorities aware of this - will point-wise lift sanctions against Russia in order to return gas compressor turbines for Nord Stream 1 from repair, writes the Ukrainian European Pravda.
• The demand of Russians for out-of-court bankruptcy through the MFC has grown significantly - in the second quarter, 2,700 applications were submitted, 1,651 were accepted (+28.8% compared to the first quarter). Growth is likely to continue.

Continued online July 8

19:22 Andrey Melnichenko, the founder of EuroChem and SUEK, became a citizen of the UAE back in 2021, a representative of the billionaire told Forbes. Melnichenko has been under EU sanctions since March of this year.

According to the forecast of Henley & Partners, by the end of this year, 15% or 15 thousand dollar millionaires will leave Russia, and the United Arab Emirates will take over the leadership in terms of inflow from the UK.

16:53 Markets in the US opened higher indices , commodity prices recovered from copper to oil. Brent, which had fallen to $99 the day before , rose to $105. Investors, balancing between fears of inflation and fear about the Fed's policy that could drive the economy into recession, were reassured by the details of the regulator's meeting on the rate. An additional factor is China's gigantic 1.5 trillion yuan ($220 billion) municipal borrowing (virtually infrastructure investment) program by the end of the year, which is about to be approved.

16:34 The government commission allowed Russian companies to repay loans in foreign currency ahead of schedule in foreign banks until September 1, the said . Russian Finance Ministry

To use the permit, the borrower must repay at least 20% of the debt (including when obligations for a resident borrower are performed by a third party). Payments on syndicated loans must be made directly to syndicate members, bypassing credit managers - persons of foreign unfriendly states.

This is an attempt to solve the problem with the distribution of payments. The fact is that Russian banks that subsequently fell under sanctions could participate in syndicated loans, explained Kommersant . Foreign credit managers simply did not bring money to Russian creditors. The problem was raised by the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, the provision on direct payments on such loans is contained in decree of July 5. the presidential

15:57 Forbes found out the proposed scheme for dividing the joint venture O2O Holding VK and Sberbank: VK will get the Delivery Club food delivery service, Sberu will get the Samokat delivery service and Citydrive carsharing. This configuration remained a major unknown in the spin-off of Delivery Club for a likely asset swap (News and Zen) with Yandex, which The Bell wrote about this week . Yandex's deal with Delivery is subject to FAS approval.

15:08 Johnson's speech, in which he announced his resignation, turned out to be sentimental: the politician said that he was "sad to part with the best job in the world", but there are no irreplaceable ones and for him this is a "break". Being prime minister, according to Johnson, is "an education in itself" because he has been able to travel to all corners of the UK and communicate with all sorts of people. “Even if things seem bleak at times right now, our future together is bright,” Johnson concluded. After the speech, he was followed by a rare applause.

The politician promised that during the transitional period the interests of society would be observed by the forces of the interim cabinet of ministers. Johnson did not say when the elections will take place: he said the exact dates will be presented next week.

14:39 Boris Johnson announced that he had decided to step down as Prime Minister of Great Britain and leader of the Conservative Party. According to him, "the process of choosing a new leader should begin now, the schedule will be announced next week." In the meantime, Johnson has appointed an interim cabinet of ministers, which, like himself, will work until the arrival of a new prime minister.

13:42 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has appointed an interim cabinet of ministers, and its members accept appointments, writes BBC. This means that Johnson will remain acting prime minister for a while. From the post of head of the Conservative Party, he must give up today.

12:24 German Economy Minister and Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck “with a heavy heart” asked Canada to release Siemens gas pumping units stuck there after repairs due to sanctions, writes Bloomberg. This is how Gazprom explained the 60% decrease in pumping through Nord Stream 1.

“I am in the forefront in favor of further tough EU sanctions, but tough sanctions should harm Russia and Putin more than our economy,” the minister’s agency quoted the minister as saying. “Therefore, I hope it is clear that we should deprive Putin of this excuse with turbines.” He specified that he was asking Canada to send the GPU not to Russia, but to Germany.

The decrease in Nord Stream 1 pumping, which caused a sharp rise in gas prices, led to the need to save the German operator Uniper and increased the likelihood of a recession in the EU .

11:55 President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev called for prioritizing the supply of Kazakh oil via the Trans-Caspian route after the decision of the Russian court to suspend transportation through the oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (Transneft and KazMunayGas) for 30 days from July 5. The CTC asked for a stay of the decision.

The oil pipeline terminal in Novorossiysk already operated with restrictions in March-April due to damage. Two thirds of Kazakh export oil goes through the CPC, the alternative is the Trans-Caspian route through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and further to Europe.

In mid-June, Tokayev said that Kazakhstan would comply with Western sanctions: “Sanctions are sanctions, we should not violate them, especially since we receive notifications that in case of violation of sanctions, so-called secondary sanctions from the West will follow against our economy. ".

11:21 British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has agreed to resign, reported several British media . But the resignation will not be complete: he wants to remain in the role of acting until the fall.

Johnson's resignation means that there will be a fourth prime minister in the UK in six years: David Cameron resigned in 2016, Theresa May - in 2019. On the news of the resignation of the prime minister, the pound sterling jumped slightly, but soon fell again: markets perceive what is happening mainly as political , not an economic event, writes Bloomberg.

We wrote about the causes of the government crisis in the country here .

10:54 The State Duma adopted in the third reading the amendments closing Rosreestr for third parties. It is now possible to obtain extracts for an arbitrary real estate object for a limited number of reasons (for example, the right holder himself, a co-owner, the parties in the sale and purchase under a preliminary agreement, as well as at the request of a notary). To make the statement public, as it was by default, the owner will have to submit a separate application.

The bill appeared in May . The Ministry of Economic Development justified it by the fight against intermediaries selling extracts from the USRN, but it was perceived as a threat to the transparency of the real estate market and journalistic investigations. “Now, in order to find out who is the owner of Putin's palace, you need the permission of the owner himself,” notes journalist Andrei Zakharov.

10:14 The dollar at the opening on Thursday rose by 85 kopecks, to 64.2 rubles. Euro - by 97 kopecks, up to 65.7 rubles. By 10:30 Moscow time, the dollar fell below 63 rubles.

8:50 Highlights for the night and morning:

- The American chain of coffee houses Starbucks has found a buyer for the Russian business, sources in the market told Vedomosti. According to them, the company's assets will most likely be bought by a restaurateur, the founder of Pinskiy & Co, Anton Pinsky. that Pinsky could “take away most of the Starbucks locations” wrote The SysoevFM Telegram channel also . According to Vedomosti, the deal could be closed as early as the end of July. After that, the coffee shop chain is waiting for a rebranding, as happened earlier with McDonald's.

— Clients of one of the three Unistream money transfer systems remaining in Russia are actively complaining about problems with receiving and returning funds. The company assures that they are working as usual and continue to make transfers. But, according to Kommersant , at least eight foreign partner banks of Unistream stopped working with it. Sources of the publication believe that this is due to sanctions risks. At the same time, according to the interlocutors of Kommersant, the owners of Unistream are looking for buyers for this business, which they estimated at $100 million at the beginning of the year. Experts consider the price too high even without taking into account the current crisis situation. The company does not confirm the sale negotiations.

- In the first half of 2022, only two new international brands entered the Russian retail market, Forbes reports with reference to the consulting company Knight Frank Russia. This is the lowest record since 2014. Even in the first half of the pandemic 2020, six foreign retailers entered the Russian market. More than 10 international companies left Russia in the first six months of this year (more than 180 announced the suspension or reduction of activities in the country). The mono-boutique Vilhelm Parfumerie and the Chinese sportswear and footwear store Li-Ning entered the Russian market in the first half of the year. By the end of the year, I plan to bring four Turkish brands to Russia - fast food restaurants Chitir Chicken, Yesen Burger and Little Kitchen, as well as the Arabica coffee chain.

- Another consequence of the “special operation” is that Russian retailers, against the backdrop of a shortage of certain brands of household appliances, are expanding their assortment at the expense of manufacturers from Uzbekistan, Turkey and China, learned Kommersant . Thus, M.Video-Eldorado agreed on the supply of refrigerators, washing machines, vacuum cleaners, TVs, air conditioners with the Uzbek manufacturer Artel. Citilink brought Chinese brand Ascoli and Turkish Grundig to the market.

Continued online July 7th.

20:04 According to Bloomberg , before the G7 summit, the United States and its allies discussed the price ceiling for Russian oil in the range of $40-$60, while the then price of Urals was at $80. This corresponds to the words of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida about the ceiling at half the current price.

The agency learned that the US administration considers the $40 level too low (because Russia in this case could curtail exports and prices could rise). However, at the same time, it is working on other measures - sanctions against carriers of oil that sells for more than the ceiling, and against banks servicing such transactions.

19:12 Weekly inflation returned to Russia by July 1 (0.23%), but it is due to one-time factors, follows from the data of Rosstat and the Ministry of Economic Development. The point is the indexation of heavily weighted utility tariffs (+4.21%), the rest of the trends of previous weeks remained: cheaper food (minus 0.38%) with a faster decline in prices for fruits and vegetables, lower prices in the non-food sector and growth in tourism.

A week earlier, prices did not rise after two weeks of deflation (-0.12% and -0.14%), so June inflation in Russia promises to be close to zero.

18:24 After the news about the rescue of the Uniper energy company by the German authorities due to the sharp rise in gas prices, similar news came from France. EDF, the debt-ridden nuclear power giant, is about to be completely nationalized . Now the state owns 84%. In the "green" plans of EDF, the construction of 6 to 14 new nuclear power plants by 2050, and full state control should reassure holders of the company's $43 billion of debt.

17:34 Brent oil quotes fell below $100 for the first time since the end of April. The main factor behind the fall is the fears of the markets regarding a recession.

17:12 The Central Bank announced that the lower limit of transactions with funds subject to the mandatory control of Rosfinmonitoring will be increased from 600 thousand to 1 million rubles. The threshold value of such operations carried out under a real estate transaction will increase from 3 million to 5 million rubles. The amendments were adopted by the State Duma in the third reading.

16:54 The euro continues to fall towards parity with the dollar - on Wednesday, July 6, the rate of the European currency fell to $1.0187. Some market analysts are already thinking about consolidation levels below parity - 0.92 or 0.98 - others warn against hasty shorts, but everyone blames Europe's energy dependence on Russia for the troubles of the euro. “Buying the euro this summer doesn’t look like a strategy at all,” says Keith Jax, chief currency strategist at Societe Generale.

15:48 British HSBC is negotiating the sale of the Russian division of Igor Kim to Expobank, learned Bloomberg . The same bank is considered by Western media to be one of the contenders for the Russian assets of Citigroup. HSBC stopped the retail business in Russia a few years ago and focused on servicing corporate clients. A year ago, the Russian division had $1.4 billion in assets.

14:50 Copper quotes, which serve as an important leading indicator of the state of the global economy, fell below $ 7,500 per ton. This is the level of December coronavirus 2020, the peak at $10,500 was reached as recently as March. Quotations are also falling for other industrial metals - nickel, aluminum and tin, for which the second quarter of 2022 was the worst since the global financial crisis of 2008.

14:01 There in the UK is a government crisis : the office of Boris Johnson (consistently taking the most anti-Russian position in the context of Ukraine) is being left one by one by officials. The most notable losses were Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak and Health Minister Sajid Javid, joined by Urban Minister John Glen on Wednesday afternoon.

The Conservative Party will discuss the mechanism for a new vote of confidence in the prime minister, which could take place as early as next week. Such a vote took place in early June, and Johnson sat in the chair - albeit with the worst result since the time of Theresa May. He was provoked by the “patigate” - the organization of parties by the prime minister during strict quarantine.

This time, even Johnson's staunchest supporters have been angered by a sex scandal involving Chris Pincher, deputy parliamentary organizer of the ruling Conservative Party. at the Carlton Club in London last week He went on a rampage , molesting two men. Pincher immediately resigned, but it quickly became clear that this was not his first antics, and Johnson knew about Pincher's inclinations before his appointment to a high post.

A scandal of this magnitude should affect the pound and the markets, Bloomberg notes , but not this time. Investors consider what is happening to be nothing more than a secondary show in the context of rising inflation and recession risks. Most analysts interviewed by the agency are confident that Johnson's resignation is unable to significantly worsen the situation in the UK economy, which is already undergoing a crisis worse than all the G7 countries.

12:56 Already about 60% of laptops are delivered to Russia without an operating system, market participants told Kommersant. In the spring, there were only 40% of them, and at the beginning of the year - less than a quarter. By autumn, distributors expect the share may increase to 80-90%.

First of all, suppliers are trying to curb the rise in prices for equipment in this way, experts believe: devices without a pre-installed OS are cheaper (the difference in price reaches 10%), and the buyer can independently choose a convenient software package (at the same time, some will probably choose an unlicensed version ).

Meanwhile, the government is gearing up to take advantage of the rising share of "blank" laptop sales. The Ministry of Digital Transformation informed Kommersant that they are considering the issue of mandatory pre-installation of the Russian OS Astra Linux and Viola.

12:43 Group-IB will separate Russian business from international. This will be reported on the website of the company working in the field of cybersecurity. For work in Russia and the CIS, a new fully autonomous structure has been created, the management of which has been transferred to local management.

“This step means the complete separation of financial flows of Russian and international assets of Group-IB. The Russian revenue of the company will be fully spent on the development of local business. Over the next 6 months, the ownership structure and the composition of shareholders in global and local assets will also be changed,” Group-IB noted.

The decision to separate the Russian business into a separate structure was made against the backdrop of "global and market uncertainty," said Dmitry Volkov, CEO of Group-IB. According to him, this move will give the company "more market freedom" and will allow "to act more flexibly and strategically independently in each region of presence."

to “divorce the perimeters” of Russian and international business decided The BCS financial group and its brokerage division also . Previously, the company was mainly focused on the Russian market, but now it "pays more attention to foreigners."

12:28 The number of private investors on the Moscow Exchange has exceeded 20 million, they have opened more than 34 million accounts, the site said . But transactions in the stock market in June were made only by 1.9 million people. At the same time, the share of private investors in the volume of trades in shares in June amounted to 74%, in the volume of trades in bonds - 25.2%.

11:26 Alisher Usmanov withdrew his divorce suit from Irina Viner. "The plaintiff's statement of claim has been withdrawn, the court proceedings on the claim have been terminated, was told " Interfax in court. The filing of the lawsuit became known in May. Since March, the billionaire has been under sanctions from the EU, the UK, the US and Japan. Usmanov and Viner have been married since 1992.

10:52 Tinkoff suspends outgoing SWIFT transfers in all currencies, including US dollars, from today until October 1.

“Tinkoff has been fighting for a long time to ensure that SWIFT transfers, whose operation is 95% dependent on Western payment infrastructure, remain a comfortable way to transfer money. We are forced to admit that our efforts were not enough to ensure that Western partners fulfill their part of the agreements within a reasonable and comfortable time for our clients,” the bank said in a statement.

Transfers that have already been sent, but not yet carried out, Tinkoff promised to try to carry out "within a reasonable time."

The bank also said that the introduction of commissions on foreign currency accounts and transfers is "not a way to earn money, but a call for the bank to change the structure of currency preferences, taking into account geopolitical realities." Tinkoff promised to send the funds earned on commissions to charity.

10:18 The ruble continued to decline on Wednesday: the dollar soon after the opening of trading rose above 64 rubles for the first time in a month, the euro - above 66 rubles.

9:37 OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo has died at the age of 63. He headed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in 2016, and before that he represented Nigeria in OPEC. Against the backdrop of sanctions, Barkindo urged the EU to take a realistic approach, believing that OPEC will not be able to completely replace oil supplies from Russia.

9:10 The main thing for the night and morning:

“Companies leaving Russia may face massive lawsuits from workers fired by agreement of the parties, writes ” Kommersant . According to lawyers, over the past year and a half or two years, a new trend has begun to form in the practice of Russian courts of general jurisdiction: an increasing number of employees manage to challenge the dismissal by agreement of the parties and receive monetary compensation. And in conditions when many companies leaving Russia prefer to formalize the termination of employment relations with employees by agreement of the parties, the number of such claims from employees may increase even more. At the same time, in the case when a foreign company sells its Russian legal entity, the new owner will be the defendant in the claims.

- IKEA has not yet been able to solve the technical problems on the site that arose with the start of the online sale of the remaining range. Buyers are invited to temporarily place orders using applications. The retailer noted that there are still enough goods in warehouses, and the exchange and return departments are working as usual.

- After a four-month break, private investors began to increase investments in retail mutual funds, learned Kommersant . In June, the net inflow of funds to open-ended and exchange-traded funds amounted to 2.76 billion rubles - this is the first positive result since January, when more than 3.4 billion rubles were invested in mutual funds. In the next four months, investors withdrew almost 46 billion rubles from them. In June, investors preferred bond funds and gold. Riskier equity and mixed funds continue to lose shareholders. Experts explain the return of private investors to mutual funds by falling deposit rates and rising commissions on foreign currency accounts.

- Tinkoff Bank, which escaped sanctions, became the provider of the Fast Payment System (SBP) for ruble cross-border transfers by phone number, RBC reports citing a bank representative. The list of banks to which it will be possible to send a transfer, as well as the final amount of commissions for customers, the period for the full launch of the service and information about whether other providers will be involved in it, Tinkoff and the Central Bank have not yet been disclosed. Operations will be carried out in rubles with conversion into the national currency on the side of the recipient bank. The need to launch such a transfer system arose because the usual methods of cross-border transfers for Russian banks became inaccessible due to sanctions.

- The largest plant in Russia for the production of secondary lead - Fregat - has suspended work due to the complete cessation of exports, found out Kommersant . At the enterprise, the publication was told that so far the stop is designed for one month, and then the plant will look for new markets. The problem with exports arose due to the fact that over the past month and a half, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has not issued a single export license to Fregat. The authorities feared a shortage of lead for the defense industry, analysts say. The EU has not yet abandoned Russian lead, the ban on its import will only come into effect on July 10. And it is pointless to look for new buyers for Fregat until there is an understanding of when the license will be issued.

Continued online July 6th.

20:04 The price of Brent fell below $102 per barrel for the first time since mid-May. Oil prices are falling due to increased risks of a global recession, writes Reuters. Oil is getting cheaper even despite the expected supply disruptions due to the strike of oil workers in Norway.

17:24 Re:Store stores have begun importing iPhones and MacBooks to Russia through parallel import channels, a representative of the company that manages the network told RIA Novosti. A representative of Wildberries also confirmed to the agency the import of Apple products through parallel imports.

Back in June, was the first major retailer to confirm Svyaznoy the start of electronics imports through parallel imports. The company said that in this way they replenished the assortment with more than 100 commodity items, including Samsung smartphones, the latest generation iPhone, as well as PlayStation, Xbox and Nintendo game consoles. Who imports equipment for Svyaznoy, the representative of the network did not specify.

We talked about whether parallel imports will save the Russian electronics market here . The main problem with such imports is not even that some gadget cannot be bought, but in the guarantee, support and maintenance of products imported bypassing brands.

16:50 The National Wealth Fund in June fell by 1.7 trillion rubles to 10.77 trillion rubles, the Finance Ministry said. This is the equivalent of $210.622 billion or 8.1% of GDP. Funds of the National Welfare Fund are accounted for in separate accounts with the Central Bank, a quarter of investments are euros (51.6 billion euros), slightly less than the yuan (310 billion yuan), there are also yen, pounds, some rubles and gold in depersonalized form.

16:42 Brent oil quotes fell by 6% from $114 to $107. The Dow Jones index at the opening in the US after a long weekend fell by 1.7%, Nasdaq by 1.8% on fears of a slowdown in economic growth.

16:29 Yum! Brands (brands KFC and Pizza Hut) announced that it was negotiating the sale of Russian KFC restaurants to a local operator, after which it would completely leave Russia.

Pizza Hut establishments in Russia have already been sold by the franchise owner, the Polish holding Amrest, for about 300 million rubles. The buyer is the Neu-M company, founded by top managers of the Rostik group, which develops the restaurants IL Patio, Planet Sushi, TGI Friday's. The low price of the transaction was due to the fact that the assets of the unprofitable network were sold without a brand.

The transfer of KFC is in an advanced stage and includes franchise rights and a network of franchisees, the report said. Whether the brand will be preserved is not clear from the release. The KFC chain in Russia is noticeably larger than Pizza Hut - it has 1.1 thousand establishments.

15:58 Volkswagen completely closes the office in Nizhny Novgorod, associated with contract assembly at the facilities of GAZ, which was stopped in early March. Skoda Octavia, Skoda Kodiaq, Skoda Karoq and Volkswagen Taos were produced there. The site itself is expected to provide alternative loading.

15:09 Italian UniCredit wants to leave Russia with an asset buyback option, writes Bloomberg: the company expects to return "after the war." Not only Russian companies that did not fall under sanctions and needed a banking license, but also companies from Turkey, India and China applied for the business, the agency wrote.

Of the three main foreign banks in Russia, Societe Generale got rid of business, having sold Rosbank to Vladimir Potanin's Interros. UniCredit and Raiffeisen Bank International continue to consider options.

14:21 Inflation in the OECD countries in May reached 9.6% in annual terms. The last time it was at this level was in the late Soviet era, in 1988. The maximum figures are in Turkey and the Baltic countries.

Energy resources rose in price by 35.4% against 32.9% in April, food - by 12.6% against 11.5%. In Germany and Italy, energy resources provided half of the total price increase.

14:06 Gas in Europe has risen in price eight times since the beginning of last year, and in terms of its role in geopolitics, it has come close to oil, as it was during the oil crises and embargoes of the 1970s, writes Bloomberg . With maximum efforts (even if it pauses the “green” agenda), the EU will be able to double the share of LNG in the gas balance, to 40%, only by 2026.

13:44 On the risks of a recession in the eurozone, the euro fell against the dollar to $1.0325. The last time the euro was at this level was 20 years ago, in December 2002. Meanwhile, the weakening of the ruble intensified on Tuesday afternoon - the thresholds of 60 rubles per dollar and 62 rubles per euro were crossed. Analysts believe that this is due to the expectation of government measures to correct the exchange rate - we wrote more about the factors of the ruble weakening here .

13:37 The State Duma has finally approved the bill on the surcharge to the mineral extraction tax for Gazprom. It was the additional withdrawal that caused the sharp drop in the company's quotes last week.

13:23 RIA Novosti published an accusatory ruling by RANEPA Rector Vladimir Mau. The plot of the case is fraud and embezzlement by an organized group of funds for more than 20 million rubles through fictitious employment of 12 employees at the RANEPA. Mau entered into an agreement with ex-Deputy Minister of Education Marina Rakova, according to the investigation. The Bell spoke in detail about the “Mau case” here .

12:08 Last week, JPMorgan predicted oil at $380 in the event of Russia's "revenge" for introducing a price ceiling. Citigroup believes that quotes could almost halve, to $65 by the end of the year, in the event of a recession and a concomitant drop in demand. In 2023, in this scenario, oil will cost $45.

Investment bank analysts see analogues of what is happening in the oil crises of the 1970s and remind that the physical demand for oil decreases only in the deepest recessions, but the price for it falls sharply in all.

11:56 The exchange rate of the ruble on the Moscow Exchange increased by 2.3 rubles to 57.8 rubles - this is the level of mid-June. The euro exchange rate is 59.4 rubles.

11:48 Sweden and Finland have signed protocols on admission to NATO. The alliance is starting the process of ratifying the protocols, said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

10:50 Rosaviatsiya once again (for the 22nd) time extended the ban on flights to 11 airports in the southern and central parts of Russia. The largest of the list - the airports of Simferopol and Rostov-on-Don - were put into operation shortly before the start of the "special operation".

The main thing for the night and morning:

• Uniper, once Gazprom's largest partner in Europe, is in rescue talks with the German government, with a €9 billion bailout package. Meanwhile, the price of gas in Europe is approaching $2,000, and there is growing confidence that Russia will continue the gas war, threatening a wave of defaults.
• At the beginning of public sales of IKEA products remaining in Russia, the company's website is working intermittently . The nature of the problems indicates a high load on the site.
• Vladimir Potanin told RBC that Norilsk Nickel agreed to discuss a merger with UC Rusal. The initiative belongs to the new management of the aluminum producer, while Potanin "confirmed his agreement to start discussing the merger process with UC Rusal." The decision was influenced by the factors of stability and the green agenda, the billionaire says, but also “the need to both diversify the shareholding and acquire additional such sanctions stability”, as well as receive state support.
• In Russia, at the initiative of the FAS, they may introduce a moratorium on contracts pegged to foreign currency or world commodity indices. An exception will be made for transactions with oil, gas, gold and diamonds.
• Shares of the Irkut aircraft building corporation doubled in price over the week - it seems that investors are looking for at least some kind of replacement for the collapsed Gazprom in the domestic market, writes Kommersant . Participants misinterpret the positive sanctions news about the company and most likely do not know what they are dealing with, the newspaper notes.

Continued online July 5

19:57 Finland and Sweden on Monday completed negotiations on joining NATO in one round, according to the website of the alliance. On Tuesday, July 5, the accession protocol will be signed.

19:31 The price of gas in Europe for the first time since the beginning of March has exceeded $1,800 per thousand cubic meters.

19:30 The court canceled the decision to block the OVD-Info website (the project was recognized as a foreign agent). The judge who made the decision was reprimanded. The case has been sent for retrial.

“This is a rare victory for common sense and law in modern times, but a small victory,” Grigory Okhotin, co-founder of OVD-Info, commented on the decision. He noted that he has no illusions about the cancellation of the blocking decision: the ovdinfo.org domain is still unavailable, and documents from the court must be submitted to Roskomnadzor to be unblocked. In addition, the OVD-Info lawyer assumes that after the review of the case, “the decision will be practically word for word the same”, the court will simply not allow such gross violations as were committed the first time and allowed to appeal this decision.

The ovdinfo.org website was blocked at the request of the prosecutor's office in December last year due to the fact that the project's activities were allegedly aimed at promoting terrorism and extremism in Russia. It is not known what materials became the reason for blocking.

18:47 In Moscow, the supply of housing for rent has doubled in six months, RBC reports , citing data from real estate companies. Realtors explain this by renting out apartments that were previously planned to be sold. “Potential sellers of apartments decided to postpone the purchase until the stabilization of the economic and political situation in the country and entered the rental market,” explains one of the analysts.

According to some estimates, the supply of housing for rent in Moscow is now five times higher than demand. As a result, rental prices began to decline: in the center of the capital they are already lower by 13%, in the west - by 11%, in other administrative districts - by 9-10%.

18:04 Aeroflot will also not pay dividends for 2021, according to the information disclosure website.

17:27 The UK has announced that it will impose new sanctions against Belarus on July 5 (“because the Lukashenka regime continues to actively promote Putin’s illegal invasion,” the British Foreign Office website says).

The sanctions will include a ban on imports and exports of certain goods totaling around £60m, including petroleum products, advanced technology, luxury items (artwork, designer bags), Belarusian iron and steel.

In addition, the UK will ban "a large number" of Belarusian companies from trading securities on the London Stock Exchange.

16:56 At a conference in Lugano, Ukraine named the amount needed for restoration - $ 750 billion. The main source of funding should be the confiscated Russian assets, said Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

15:47 Cryptobank Vauld, which is supported by crypto exchange Coinbase and investor Peter Thiel, has stopped the withdrawal of funds and trading operations on its platform, writes the Financial Times. Today, Vauld announced that against the backdrop of problems in other crypto projects, investors have withdrawn $200 million from the crypto bank over the past three weeks. For the temporary use of tokens, he promised clients up to 40% per annum.

The collapse of the sector began in May with the stablecoin TerraUSD and its “pair” cryptocurrency Luna (more on this here ) and continued with the collapse of the crypto lenders BlockFi and Celsius, as well as the bankruptcy of the Three Arrows Capital crypto fund. Vauld admitted to being involved with the latter. Now there is reason to believe that Tether/USDT may also collapse. Why you need to follow him, read here .

The Bell said that many investors expect the coming "crypto winter" to clear the sector from weak players.

15:20 Decrease in the production of Tesla electric vehicles in the second quarter due to problems with logistics and shutdowns (to 258 thousand from 310 thousand in the first) cost the company the first place in the world. in the first half of the year , more than quadrupling its production year-on-year. China's BYD produced 641,350 electric vehicles

True, the victory is not entirely “fair”: in the release of BYD, there are approximately equal numbers of electric vehicles and rechargeable hybrids. This can be seen in the statistics of the installed capacity of batteries, which in June grew "only" 2.5 times year on year. Tesla has plans for the next 12 months to bring the number of operating assembly plants to four, with a capacity of more than 500,000 electric vehicles each.

14:51 Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin today visited the Innoprom exhibition in Yekaterinburg and spoke at the plenary session. In his opinion, the Russian economy remains in the green zone (GDP in January-May grew by 0.5%, industrial production - by almost 3%). There is "a certain decline in certain industries, but nowhere have they approached critical levels."

14:40 The state-owned Sovcomflot, the largest shipping company in Russia, will not pay dividends for 2021, as recommended by the government. Sovcomflot is under sanctions and forced to sell part of the fleet.

13:42 Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reported to Vladimir Putin about the successful operation to liberate the LPR and the losses of the Ukrainian army - 5469 people in two weeks (killed and wounded). Putin instructed to organize the rest of the Russian units that took an active part in the battles and achieved success.

13:19 Iran is forced to make discounts to China on its already cheap oil in order not to lose market share to Russia, learned Bloomberg . Iran exports about 700,000 bpd to China, and deliveries in August are close in price to Urals, the agency writes. And ESPO low-sulphur oil is more expensive than Iranian oil.

“Sanctioned” oil from Russia and Iran is ousting other suppliers from the Chinese market – oil supplies from West Africa have fallen to the level of a decade ago.

12:32 Germany has a trade deficit for the first time since 1991. In May, it reached 1 billion euros: exports unexpectedly fell by 0.5%, imports rose by 2.7%, writes Bloomberg. Price scissors arose due to the fact that the main imports of Germany - energy, food products and components - have risen in price by 30% year-on-year, while the main exports have risen in price by half.

11:14 The French manufacturer of power grid equipment Schneider Electric, which announced its resignation at the end of April, has signed a binding agreement on the sale of Russian assets to Russian management. The company will write off 300 million euros - it has five factories in Russia, distribution and engineering centers. The total investment of Schneider Electric in Russia exceeded 1 billion euros.

10:55 The ruble on Monday noticeably weakened, shortly after opening at the peak, breaking the level of 56 rubles against the dollar (on Friday it was at 54). Given the July 4 holiday in the US, this can only be explained by internal factors - the point is probably in expectations regarding interventions in non-reserve currencies, which the government should discuss this week. We wrote more about the idea itself and how much it will help weaken the ruble here .

10:27 Russia lifts coronavirus restrictions on crossing the land border from July 15. Upon arrival in Russia, the requirement to provide the results of PCR testing for coronavirus for citizens of Belarus has been canceled, for other foreigners the requirements remain.

10:22 VK holding is eyeing the purchase of at least two regional online booking services, writes Forbes - the Krasnodar Tvil service and the Ulyanovsk Sutochno.ru. After leaving Russia, Booking.com and Airbnb VK expects to occupy a large segment of the market.

The main thing in the morning:

• The Russian Armed Forces, having closed the Lysychansk cauldron, on Sunday established control over the entire Luhansk region of Ukraine. The front pages of the foreign press are devoted to this event - for example, the Financial Times indicates that Russia controls the new region for the first time since March, and this brings it closer to control over the entire Donbass. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that by withdrawing troops from the boiler, the Armed Forces of Ukraine saved the lives of people, but would return with modern weapons. He did not comment on the rocket attack on Russian Belgorod.
• The slowdown in the decline in the industry is largely due to the release of the "defense industry", the production of consumer goods is falling faster than the general one, writes Kommersant . According to Rosstat statistics, industrial production fell by 0.2% in May, and by 1.3% according to the statistics of the CMASF (which does not take into account classified positions). In annual terms, this will give minus 1.7% and minus 4.2%, respectively.
• What exactly will be the mechanism for the ceiling on Russian oil prices is still unclear, but Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida revealed the height of this ceiling - at half the current price. Moreover, the restrictions will be such that Russian oil "is not bought and could not be bought" more than the established level.
• The Russian market of phones, tablets, laptops and household appliances may become 90% Chinese, parallel imports will take the remaining 10%.
• An international conference on the restoration of Ukraine starts in Lugano. Ukraine will present a preliminary recovery plan, the costs of which the EU estimates at 500 billion euros. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss will announce her readiness to confiscate Russian assets frozen in the country and transfer them to Ukrainians.
• The Russian Ministry of Finance proposed to abandon 1.6 trillion rubles of spending on state programs in 2023-2025, mainly those that were poorly mastered. The most severe sequestration will affect the "Development of the transport system" (390 billion rubles over three years), "Scientific and technological development" (150 billion rubles) and "Ensuring the country's defense" (120 billion rubles).

Continued online The Bell 4 July. Broadcast for June 27 - July 3 can be viewed here .