The price of a “special operation” in Ukraine. Online

The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, which began on February 24

SUPPORT THE BELL

The war completely changed our lives. We have been writing about its consequences for each of us online since February 24. We have never taken money from readers for content, believing that we can earn money ourselves. But now our business model, like so much else in the economy, has collapsed. Help The Bell keep going!

19:37 Recep Tayyip Erdogan intends to hold bilateral talks with Vladimir Putin during his visit to Tehran. There, on July 19, a summit of the guarantor countries of the Astana process - Iran, Russia and Turkey - on Syria is expected.

19:08 Dmitry Medvedev threatened "separate exalted bloody clowns" from Ukraine with "doomsday" in the event of an attack on Crimea with the help of American HIMARS MLRS. In the afternoon, Senator Andriy Klishas called in the same case to carry out "denazification" and "demilitarization" throughout Ukraine, and United Russia deputy for the Crimean region Mikhail Sheremet has traditionally promised to deliver a "crushing blow to the decision-making centers in Kiev."

These belligerent statements were intended to comment on the words of the official representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Vadim Skibitsky, that Kiev can use high-precision American HIMARS missile defense systems against the ships of the Black Sea Fleet, and the adviser to the head of Zelensky’s office, Alexei Arestovich, that, “as soon as the first technical opportunity”, the object of attack will be the Crimean bridge.

Behind this dispute in absentia (if you can call it that) is the question of recognition or non-recognition of Crimea as Russian. The fact is that the condition for the delivery of HIMARS installations to Ukraine was a promise not to use the systems to hit targets on Russian territory (and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine does not deny this). But the vast majority of countries in the world (like the UN) do not consider Crimea a part of Russia.

The US decided to begin deliveries of HIMARS in June, on the condition that Kyiv does not use the system to hit targets on Russian territory. Russia annexed Crimea after the so-called referendum on the status of the peninsula in March 2014. The international community (represented by the UN General Assembly) considers its holding illegal and considers Crimea as a "temporarily occupied" territory of Ukraine.

16:29 "Rain" will partially return to the air tomorrow, July 18, said the general director of the TV channel Natalya Sindeeva in an interview with the Kholod publication. While evening live broadcasts will be held on the Youtube channel, some of the author's programs will also return. A full launch is scheduled for the fall.

16:05 on the Latvian-Russian border have accumulated 1,250 trucks . Of these, about 850 trucks are parked at the border crossing at Terekhovo, and about 400 at the Grebnevo border crossing. The waiting time at both points is six days. The accumulation of trucks was also recorded on the Latvian-Belarusian border (slightly more than 300).

15:32 The American aircraft manufacturer Boeing has downgraded its forecast for demand for aircraft in the next 20 years, but noted that it expects stable supplies worldwide, with the exception of the Russian market. The company previously expected to deliver 43,610 aircraft over a 20-year period. Now, according to Boeing's new forecast , global demand will be 41,170 new aircraft, with half of the supply coming from the acquisition of replacement aircraft and narrow-body aircraft accounting for 75% of aircraft. Boeing also cut its passenger traffic growth forecast slightly to 3.8% from 4%, but upped its freight growth forecast from 4% to 4.1%.

12:53 The IMF in its next report will "significantly" lower the forecast for global economic growth. that Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, head of the IMF's strategy department, explained the sharp increase in energy and food prices, the ongoing pandemic and other factors have made the tasks for leaders "much more difficult." “One shock after another, and they really hit the global economy,” emphasizes Pazarbasioglu. She spoke after a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors that ended without an official communiqué.

11:44 Sberbank has agreed to cooperate with the Iranian commercial Bank Melli Iran in banking and trade. Details of the agreement are not given. At the same time, a new trade center was opened with the participation of Iranian and Russian businessmen under the auspices of Mir Business Bank (a Russian bank with 100% Iranian participation).

The main thing for the night and morning:

• An An-12 cargo plane owned by a Ukrainian company crashed in Greece. It flew from Serbia to Jordan and, according to the Greek media, could carry about 12 tons of "potentially dangerous" ammunition. The Serbian Defense Ministry said the plane was carrying 11.5 tons of defense products to Bangladesh. The department also clarified that all 8 crew members who were on board died.
• Of the 27 EU countries, six account for almost all of the Russian assets frozen in the bloc. These are Germany, France, Ireland, Austria, Belgium and Luxembourg, told European Commissioner for Justice Didier Reynders Bloomberg. He clarified that the listed countries have blocked Russian assets worth 12.7 billion euros, while in total in the European Union they have been frozen by 13.9 billion euros.
• During ministerial talks in Indonesia, many G20 countries condemned the "Russian invasion of Ukraine" and called on Moscow to end the fighting, the final statement said. A two-day meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in Bali ended without a joint communiqué due to disagreements with Russia, with many agreeing that the pace of the global economic recovery has slowed and is seriously threatened by the situation around Ukraine.

Continued online July 17

18:51 Russia will try to make sure that it does not have a need for SWIFT, said presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin. In his opinion, the world, including Russia and China, uses dollars and euros “just out of habit”, because “it happened” and “it’s convenient”, and “now it’s just the situation when the turnover in yuan and rubles is growing.” In his speech, Oreshkin also predicted that the Russian economy would enter “positive trends” by the end of this year and admitted that inflation in Russia by the second quarter of next year could be significantly lower than in the European Union.

13:02 Washington believes that Russian officials visited an airfield in Iran to inspect combat drones, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said ( reports Reuters). His statement was accompanied by a series of June 8 satellite images of Iranian UAVs that Tehran showed to the Russian delegation that day. The same drones were on display during her second visit to the airfield on July 5, Sullivan said.

According to the US, Iran intends to supply Russia with hundreds of drones, some of them with combat potential, as well as train Russian forces to use them. The Iranian Foreign Minister denied such plans.

12:25 The procedure for importing cars from abroad has been simplified - the government until February 2023 canceled the requirement to install an ERA-GLONASS emergency call button on them. The reason is that, due to sanctions, Russian manufacturers of emergency call systems experienced interruptions with components. The authorities hope that during the delay, logistics chains will be able to reconfigure.

The main thing for the night and morning:

• Joe Biden will not bring official promises from Saudi Arabia to increase oil production by OPEC+ countries. But Western agency sources hint that a decision on this could be made at a cartel meeting in early August. .
• Gazprom asked Siemens to provide documents that would allow the removal of a gas turbine engine for the Portovaya compressor station, a critical Nord Stream facility, from Canada. Gazprom also expects that Siemens will fulfill its obligation to service gas turbine engines.
• The Ministry of Industry and Trade and other relevant departments are considering the possibility of abolishing VAT on socially significant goods. “The decision to cancel VAT, of course, can be made, but first we all need to clearly understand whether this will lead to lower prices or not <…>,” said Viktor Yevtukhov, deputy head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The final decision, he said, will be made by the Ministry of Finance.
• Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu instructed to strengthen the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in all directions in order to exclude "the ability of the Kiev regime to launch massive rocket and artillery strikes" on the Donbass. Ukraine received the first M270 rocket systems the day before, which can fire 12 ground-to-ground missiles within a minute and hit targets at a distance of up to 80 km.

Continued online July 16

16:45 The court sentenced the ex-head of Open Russia (recognized as undesirable in Russia) Andrei Pivovarov to four years in prison for "carrying out the activities of an undesirable organization." He was detained in May 2021 while trying to fly to Warsaw after the self-liquidation of Postcard.

15:35 Today, the EU will present the "sixth and a half" package of sanctions against Russia, consisting mainly of amendments and clarifications to already approved packages, writes Bloomberg. The EU, faced with the problem of traders being too cautious, will specify that agricultural exports from Russia are not blocked, as well as ports of departure. But the package will include new sanctions against Russian gold, supplies of engineering products, and about 50 companies and individuals. It is possible that previously imposed sanctions will be lifted from someone.

14:55 President Putin has appointed former Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov as General Director of Roskosmos, Dmitry Rogozin has been relieved of this post. After today's appointment of Denis Manturov, there are ten deputy prime ministers again.

14:22 The State Duma approved Denis Manturov as Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Industry and Trade. The vote was unanimous - 394 votes in favor with one abstention.

On the eve it became known that there would be no emergency meeting of the Federation Council on Friday, which means that there are no bills on the agenda of the State Duma related to "money emission, ratification and denunciation of international treaties, the status and protection of the state border of the Russian Federation, as well as issues of war and peace." Today, the agenda of the extraordinary meeting of the State Duma was published - it contains dozens of bills, but there are no surprises among them.

14:14 Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov, speaking today in the State Duma before his approval for the post of Deputy Prime Minister, admitted that car production will be halved this year. “The decline in the market and production this year will be about 50%,” he said. In early June, the Ministry of Industry and Trade predicted a 55% drop in the market to 750,000 vehicles.

14:08 According to the Ministry of Finance, the average price of Urals oil for the period from June 15 to July 14, 2022 was $84.421 per barrel, or $616.3 per ton. This almost corresponds to the average price of Urals in January-June ($84.09 per barrel). Last year, Russian oil in the first half of the year cost an average of $63.35.

13:57 Copper quotes fell again - this time below $ 7 thousand per ton - to the levels of the end of 2020. Since the high of the beginning of the year, one of the main industrial metals has already fallen in price by 35%. Half of the world's copper is consumed by China, whose economy grew by only 0.4% yoy in the second quarter due to the effects of lockdowns. Today, immediately after the release of these statistics, Goldman Sachs lowered its annual forecast for China's GDP growth to 3.3%.

12:58 The business of the Starbucks coffee shop chain in Russia will be bought by restaurateur Anton Pinsky, Timur Yunusov (Timati) and Sindika company of Senator Arsen Kanokov.

12:29 The Russian Ministry of Defense, a day after the attack on Vinnitsa, mentioned it in a report. It claims that representatives of the command of the Ukrainian Air Force were destroyed by missiles.

“On July 14, Caliber high-precision sea-based missiles attacked the building of the garrison house of officers in the city of Vinnitsa. At the time of the strike, a meeting of the command of the Ukrainian air force with representatives of foreign arms suppliers was held at this military facility on the issues of transferring the next batch of aircraft and weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as organizing the repair of the Ukrainian aviation fleet. As a result of the strike, the participants in the meeting were destroyed.”

About what is known about the impact, we told in the morning newsletter.

The main thing for the night and morning:

• The number of victims of the Russian missile attack on Vinnitsa on July 14 has reached 23 people, 18 are missing. In the absence of clarification from the Russian Ministry of Defense, he was condemned at the highest international level, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for Russia to be recognized as a terrorist state.
• Today's extraordinary plenary session of the State Duma, it seems, will do without landmark news. Most likely, the lower chamber will approve Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov as Deputy Prime Minister and will consider many bills.
• Russian ministries, the Central Bank and oil companies are discussing the creation of a Russian oil benchmark, which is scheduled to be launched on the national platform in October, learned Bloomberg . They want to attract foreign partners to it and by March-July 2023 reach trading volumes sufficient for a global benchmark - and countering the "price ceiling".
• A too strong ruble harms Russia's neighbors and trading partners - Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, writes RBC with reference to a review of the Eurasian Development Bank. However, the weakening of national currencies favors their raw material exports and guest workers working in Russia, and the potential for strengthening currencies against the ruble may attract investors.
• The resources of Bellingcat and The Insider, already recognized as foreign agents in Russia, were recognized by the Prosecutor General's Office as undesirable organizations and transferred to the register of the Ministry of Justice. The “undesirable” status is much tougher than the “foreign agency” status - for quotes and links to these resources, other media are threatened with blocking, bloggers - courts for reposts.
• CDEC has the second major data leak in six months - for 25 million phone numbers of recipients and 30 thousand records of counterparties. There is no important personal information there, but the scale is important in itself: the base will be enriched and become one of the largest.
• Belarus has applied to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes India, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan. Right before that, Moody's agency recognized as a default the payment by Belarus on the dollar debt in the national currency, carried out according to the Russian model.
• The bill "on the prohibition of a conventional unit" - or rather, the binding of contracts to foreign currency, did not pass preliminary approval even in a finalized form, learned Kommersant . The experts were not satisfied with the numerous exceptions (now not only for oil), but mainly with the concept itself, which threatens to return business to another practice of the 1990s - “100% prepayment”.

Continued online July 15

19:50 Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced that he is resigning due to the collapse of the ruling coalition. The resignation was not accepted by the President of the country.

18:21 A July poll of economists by the Central Bank showed a slight increase in optimism about the Russian economy and a slight narrowing of the range of estimates compared to June. Experts, on average, expect inflation of 15% at the end of the year (17% in June), a fall in GDP by 6% (7.5%) and the dollar at 70.4 rubles (75 rubles). At the same time, analysts have downgraded the GDP dynamics forecast for 2023 from 0.0% to -1.3% and for 2024 from 1.8% to 1.5%.

18:03 Putin signed a law on ensuring counter-terrorism and other operations abroad, including those carried out by the Russian Armed Forces. To ensure such operations, the government will be able to introduce special economic measures - in particular, to unbook the state reserve and oblige businesses to conclude a contract and fulfill a government order. We talked about the bill in more detail here .

17:17 in the party selection for the post of British Prime Minister Five finalists have been determined , and it is increasingly likely that former finance minister Rishi Sunak and junior trade policy minister Penny Mordaunt will become rivals in the party elections. They got 101 and 83 MPs respectively. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss came in third with 64 votes, fourth and fifth were former Equality Minister Kemi Badenoch and Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Tugendhat. The next rounds of voting will take place on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

About what Boris Johnson left the post of prime minister with, we wrote here .

17:05 By Thursday evening, Brent oil prices fell below $95 per barrel - this is the level of mid-February. They are below the 200-day moving average for the first time since December.

16:26 Founded by Denis Sverdlov, the British startup Arrival warned that it could lay off 30%, or 800 employees, due to the "difficult economic situation." Before that, he announced a “priority restructuring”, after which the available $500 million should be enough for him until the end of 2023.

The main customer of Arrival is the UPS courier service (10,000 delivery electric vans), which began trial operation at the very end of 2021. We talked about the development of Arrival from its foundation to entering the Nasdaq here .

is due to announce layoffs today , Tesla is laying off up to 10% of its staff. Electric pickup startup Rivian (which managed to get a valuation of over $100 billion in an IPO)

16:00 . Putin signed a law on countermeasures in response to discrimination against Russian media abroad, according to which the Prosecutor General and his deputies can prohibit the activities of foreign media in Russia, as well as suspend the license of Russian media for publishing false information for up to three months (up to six months in case of repeated violation ).

15:53 ​​. Putin signed a law making it possible to classify information on the size of Russia's gold reserves and state foreign exchange reserves as a state secret. Just today, the Central Bank updated data on international reserves - from July 1 to July 8, they decreased by 2.4% or $14.1 billion to $572.7 billion. About $300 billion of them are frozen.

15:17 The EU is in talks to lift sanctions on some Russians, Bloomberg reports , citing sources familiar with the matter. According to them, about 30 people filed a lawsuit with a request to be removed from the sanctions lists, and about 10 more appealed to the bloc directly. European lawyers called some of these petitions justified, since, in their opinion, the evidence of the prosecution, which served as the basis for the introduction of restrictions, turned out to be “weak”, “outdated” or “false”, according to the interlocutors of the agency.

14:03 Putin signed a law on public calls for activities directed against the country's security, and providing for liability up to four years in prison. The President also signed a law equating to treason going over to the side of the enemy in the conditions of hostilities, and a new generalized law on foreign agents .

13:57 Swiss oil trader Trafigura, one of the largest in the world, got rid of its 10% stake in the Vostok Oil project with Rosneft in Taimyr. Almost nothing is known about the buyer - it seems that this is one of the “traders whom no one knows” , but whose share in Russian oil sales is growing.

12:15 Raiffeisenbank raises commissions on current and brokerage accounts, as well as the minimum amount of currency transfers.

• From July 31, the fee for servicing current currency and brokerage accounts will be 0.5% per month of the amount over 5,000 and 1% of the amount over 50,000 in the account currency. For accounts in yen - over 500 thousand and 50 million, respectively. Commissions do not apply to deposits and securities denominated in foreign currency.
• Also, from July 31, the commission for the purchase of foreign currency to a brokerage account will be 3% of the transfer amount. Commission for the sale of currency remains the same - 0.3%.
• From July 18, the minimum amount of outgoing foreign exchange transfer at the branch will be 5,000 in the currency of the debit account (500,000 for yen). From August 1, the limit will also apply to Raiffeisen Online - 3,000 in the currency of the debit account (300,000 for yen).

10:40 The Central Bank considers it right to sell the entire Otkritie group, consisting of the bank, NPF Otkritie, Rosgosstrakh and several other companies, to the state bank VTB, Vladimir Chistyukhin, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, said in an interview with Vedomosti.

In the spring, this configuration was proposed to the government by the head of VTB, Andrey Kostin. With the deal, the state bank will receive a universal insurer to replace the VTB Insurance sold to Sogaz in 2018.

The most interesting thing about the merger of the two sub-sanctioned groups is that it can take place even without the participation of VTB capital. As Frank Media wrote , VTB may pay off the balance of the OFZ issue, which it has kept on its balance sheet since the reorganization of the former Bank of Moscow.

10:06 Cryptobank Celsius, which became one of the victims of "crypto freezes", filed for bankruptcy . The company raised $20 billion in assets and offered rates up to 18% per annum to 100,000 customers, but stopped issuing funds in June due to a flight of depositors. The business model based on the transfer of crypto assets collected from clients to institutional investors did not survive the fall of bitcoin and trust in crypto assets in principle after the collapse of Terra .

9:50 am Highlights for the night and morning of July 14

- The WSJ learned the details of the Ukrainian-Russian-Turkish agreement, which will allow the export of accumulated grain from Ukrainian ports. The main provisions of the document have already been agreed upon; on the Russian side, Vladimir Putin should sign it during a meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Tehran on July 19. It is assumed that the grain will be exported on Ukrainian ships under the escort of the Ukrainian Navy, Russia will undertake to observe a truce and not attack convoys in the corridor specified by the agreement, and the Turkish Navy will inspect Ukrainian ships to exclude their use for transporting Western weapons to Ukraine. The agreement is concluded under the auspices of the UN, which will establish a monitoring center for threats to shipping in Istanbul.

— The Ministry of Industry and Trade is launching a new program to support demand for cars with the help of concessional lending and leasing to replace the previous one, which was suspended in 2021. 15.1 billion rubles were allocated for the programs. The discount on a loan under the program will be up to 20% of the cost of the car (previously it was up to 10%), the maximum price of a car for participation in the program will increase to 2 million rubles. The discount under the program of preferential leasing will be 10% of the cost of the car, but not more than 500 thousand rubles. Separate conditions (35% discount, but not more than 925 thousand rubles) - for the purchase of the Evolute electric car, the production of which should be launched in September at the Motorinvest plant in Lipetsk.

- Canada until the end of 2024 partially removed Gazprom's equipment from sanctions by providing Siemens Energy with a temporary license for its repair, maintenance and transportation, say . Kommersant sources

— President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev instructed the government to create favorable conditions for attracting foreign companies leaving the Russian market, writes RIA Novosti . “The global struggle for investment capital <...> will give us good opportunities to increase the production of medium and upper value added goods,” he said.

09:02 The recovery of the eurozone economy will be slower, and inflation will be higher due to the conflict in Ukraine, writes Bloomberg, citing a draft forecast of the European Commission. GDP in 2022 will grow by 2.6% this year and 1.4% next year, inflation will be 7.6% and 4% respectively. Back in May, the European Commission expected GDP growth by 2.7% and 2.3%, price growth - by 6.1% and 2.7%.

Continued online July 14

21:50 Judging by the news from the quadripartite meeting of the military delegations of Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and UN representatives held today in Istanbul to unblock sea grain exports from Ukraine, real progress has been made in the negotiations. Hurriyet, citing the Turkish Defense Minister , writes that Russia and Ukraine have agreed on safe corridors, and the agreement will be signed next week.

Details (apart from the establishment of a coordination center in Istanbul) are not yet available, but there were enough disagreements between the parties, including the rights to control at the ports of shipment and destination and to inspect grain carriers. UN Secretary General António Guterres, following the talks , said that "an important and significant step has been taken towards an agreement," but this is far from the end.

19:42 Ukraine severed diplomatic relations with the DPRK after the recognition by North Korea of ​​the Donbass republics - the LPR and the DPR. The recognition is an attempt to undermine the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and has no legal consequences, the country's Foreign Ministry writes. “Russia no longer has any other allies in the world, except for countries that depend on it financially and politically, and the level of isolation of Russia will soon reach the level of isolation of the DPRK,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba.

19:17 According to Rosstat, in Russia from July 2 to July 8 there was deflation - minus 0.03%. Price growth in annual terms slowed down to 15.62%.

18:15 Ilya Yashin, in respect of whom a case of fakes against the Russian Armed Forces, was sent to a pre-trial detention center until September 12. This is exactly what the investigation requested in court.

“So, the court sent me to prison for anti-war speeches. On February 24, I promised that I would not run away anywhere and would speak the truth out loud for as long as I could. And when they arrest me, I will take this blow with dignity, ” the politician wrote .

18:08 The Bank of Canada raised its key rate by a percentage point to 2.5%. This was predicted by only one of the 12 analysts polled by the WSJ - the rest expected a move of 75 bp, like the US Federal Reserve. May inflation in the country was lower than in the US (7.7% vs. 8.6%).

17:16 The IMF has warned that by the end of the month it will lower its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 (now - 3.6%). 2022 will be a tough year, wrote IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, and 2023 could be even tougher, with an increased risk of recession. On the eve of the IMF lowered its forecast for US GDP growth from 2.9% to 2.3%, pointing to the systemic risk of inflation for the US and the world.

16:51 The European Commission has clarified the procedure for transit from Russia to the Kaliningrad region through the territory of the union. The transit of goods subject to EU sanctions, with the exception of military and dual-use goods, can be carried out by rail. The transit of such goods by road is prohibited. The European Commission is not negotiating with Russia to unblock Kaliningrad transit.

Such language means that the EU does not intend to stop rail transit to the Russian exclave under the pretext of strict enforcement of sanctions, the FT notes . Lithuania introduced strict checks on all transit under the pretext of the EU sanctions regime, in response to which Moscow accused it of a transport blockade.

15:58 The euro fell below parity against the dollar to $0.9998. The direct reason is data on record inflation in the US, which increases the likelihood of a more aggressive Fed policy.

15:48 North Korea recognized the independence of the DPR . Head of the DPR Denis Pushilin: “The international status of the Donetsk People's Republic and its statehood continue to strengthen. This is another victory for our diplomacy. We are grateful to the people of the DPRK for such significant support of the people of Donbass.”

15:36 Inflation in the US in June accelerated to 9.1% in annual terms from 8.6% in May. This is again higher than expected (8.8%). Markets have already priced in a 75bp Fed rate hike. in July, however, the details of the new data do not allow us to unequivocally state that the peak of inflation has been reached, notes . Bloomberg

14:45 According to the IEA , the export of oil and oil products from Russia decreased by 250,000 b/d by May to 7.4 million b/d, but due to high prices, monthly export earnings increased by $700 million, to $20.4 billion. This 40% higher than the 2021 monthly average.

But due to the strong ruble, budget revenues from oil and gas exports fell by 18% by May, to 717.9 billion rubles, or $11.7 billion.

13:56 Whether or not Nord Stream 1 will work after prevention becomes more important for the euro than the decision of the ECB to raise the rate, according to Bloomberg. Both events will fall on the same day - July 21. “The worst-case scenario (a complete halt in gas transit) means a recession and a further 10% weakening of the euro,” writes Keith Jouquet, chief currency strategist at Societe Generale. “In the best case (by maintaining the status quo), the nervousness in the markets remains, and the euro is waiting for a modest rebound.”

On the eve of the euro touched the parity against the dollar. We wrote about what this means for Russians here .

13:14 Canada will extend the exemption from sanctions not to one gas pumping unit for Nord Stream 1, but to five more within two years, writes the Canadian Globe and Mail. This will make it possible to repair all gas compressor units at the Russian end of the gas pipeline, which is now stopped for maintenance.

Before the shutdown, Gazprom reduced pumping to 40%, citing a turbine stuck in Canada. What Gazprom really wanted to achieve, how justified the “turbine” pretext for reducing supplies and what to expect next, was explained to The Bell by independent energy expert Sergey Vakulenko.

July 13. The main thing for the past night and morning

- The media will gradually learn the details of the reshuffle in the government, for the sake of which (if there is no additional agenda) the State Duma will meet on an extraordinary meeting on Friday. RBC late Tuesday evening reported that Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov, who oversees the defense industry, is going to resign in the near future. After Borisov's resignation, according to RBC, he may take the position of head of Roskosmos. His powers, according to Kommersant and Vedomosti , may pass to Denis Manturov, who (already officially) will become the 11th Deputy Prime Minister in charge of both civil and defense industries from a simple minister of industry. But a vacancy remains in place of Yuriy Borisov, which, as Kommersant and Vedomosti suggest, can be re-profiled under the leadership of the restoration of the occupied territories in Ukraine. And Dmitry Rogozin, who has been released, could have already taken this position - but this is already quite a “theory,” Vedomosti writes. However, Friday is still two days away.

- A new position, albeit not a government one, will be given to Vladimir Putin's daughter Katerina Tikhonova: as RBC learned , she, as head of the Innopraktika Foundation, will become co-chair of the coordinating council for import substitution at the RSPP. The second co-chairman will be the head of the RSPP Alexander Shokhin.

— The Izvestia newspaper, which often serves as the mouthpiece of Russian official sources, reports with reference to two of them that Russia and the EU have agreed to resolve the issue of the transit of Russian sanctioned cargo to Kaliningrad. According to Izvestia's sources, the European Commission may prescribe permission for transit in a new package of sanctions against Russia, which will be adopted in the coming weeks. But Lithuania, which will carry out the transit, still refuses to agree on an exception.

- In Russia, they can legalize Islamic banking - the method of operation of credit organizations adopted in Muslim countries that cannot lend money at interest, writes Kommersant . To this end, several bills will be submitted to the State Duma introducing the concept of “partner financing organizations”, which will be able to raise funds from citizens and legal entities and invest them in projects that comply with Islamic law on a partnership basis. The authors of the project, including Anatoly Aksakov, head of the Duma's financial committee, explain its necessity "in the light of a new situation characterized by a break in ties with Western financial markets." The Central Bank generally supports the initiative.

— Bloomberg has found a new direction for the export of Russian oil products, which Europe refuses: this is the Middle East. Since February, deliveries of Russian fuel oil to the region have increased fivefold, to 155,000 barrels per day. Deliveries to Europe during the same time fell by 30%.

19:40 On Ilya Yashin, who was supposed to leave the pre-trial detention center today after 15 days of arrest in the case of disobedience to the police, a criminal case was opened under a criminal article - about "discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation" (207.3 of the Criminal Code), threatening 10 years in prison. According to the Mash channel , Yashin himself was brought home to be present at the search, accompanied by the police. Yashin's lawyer, Vadim Prokhorov, said that the accusation was related to Yashin's broadcast about the murders in Bucha.

19:04 In the first half of the year, in which Renault left Russia, the automaker reduced its total global sales by 30%. Without taking into account the Russian market, the drop would have been 12%, one of the factors was the shortage of semiconductors. In Europe, the share of hybrids and electric vehicles in the company's sales reached 36% compared to 26% a year ago.

17:36 Putin by his decree introduced the post of Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin submitted to the State Duma for approval the candidacy of the current head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov.

The fact that Manturov's promotion will be discussed at an extraordinary meeting of the State Duma this Friday, July 15, was written by Meduza (recognized as a foreign agent in Russia). Also, the publication, citing sources, claims that the resignation of the Minister of Communications Maksut Shadayev, Chairman of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin and even Mishustin himself is possible, which in one of the scenarios, “but not the most likely”, could be replaced by Kudrin.

The fact that the State Duma will consider Manturov's candidacy on June 15 was confirmed by State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin.

15:04 The imbalance of foreign trade in favor of exports due to sanctions led to a net inflow of foreign exchange liquidity to the domestic market and the strengthening of the Russian currency, according to the Central Bank Financial Risk Review for April-June.

• Against the dollar, the ruble strengthened by 38.2% to 51.45 rubles per dollar [at the peak], the regulator writes.
• During this period, the population purchased 0.4 trillion rubles worth of currency on the stock exchange, which is more than in the same period of 2021 (0.3 trillion rubles).
• Banks sold foreign currency almost exclusively on behalf of exporters - in the amount of about 2 trillion rubles.
• Yuan trading on the exchange market in June accounted for 11% of turnover (in April - 6%, in February - less than 1%), on the over-the-counter market - 8% (in April - 4%, in February - 1%). The share of individuals in purchases of the yuan reached 13.9%, in sales - 5.5%. Liquidity was provided by exporters who began to receive Chinese currency.
• The market for currency swaps has shrunk to $15 billion from $62 billion at the beginning of the year due to sanctions, and non-residents have practically left it. The remaining volume is transactions of non-systemically important banks and non-banking credit institutions.
• In the stock market, the importance of retail investors, "who mainly take a wait-and-see attitude," grew. In April-June, they purchased Russian shares for 21 billion rubles, the Moscow Exchange index fell by 18.4% over this period.
• OFZ yields by the end of June fell below the level at the beginning of February.

On Tuesday, the dollar on the Moscow Exchange again fell to 58 rubles.

13:21 One of the largest gold miners in Russia, registered in the UK, Petropavlovsk, is filing an application with the High Court of London for external management, writes Bloomberg. The company's shares listed on the LSE have fallen in price by more than 90% since February, and in a statement, Petropavlovsk asks to remove them from trading - as with time, the papers circulating on the Moscow Exchange.

The company says it is in talks with two bidders for its mining assets, but they may not end up in a deal. However, the shareholders are unlikely to get anything from the latter: Petropavlovsk's debts at the end of June were $1.7 billion, the asset valuation was $1.6 billion.

Petropavlovsk has problems servicing a $200 million debt and selling gold to Gazprombank after the latter was included in the UK sanctions list. In April, S&P downgraded Petropavlovsk to partial default (SD).

In March, the company, which was experiencing a corporate conflict , changed its largest shareholder (29.19%) - instead of Konstantin Strukov's Yuzhuralzoloto, it was Sergey Sudarikov's Region.

13:09 A historic moment - the euro for the first time in 20 years fell to parity with the dollar for a few seconds . Then he recovered - but only to $ 1.0023.

"In our opinion, the main reasons for the fall of the EUR/USD pair are the structural weakness of the eurozone economy and the global strengthening of the dollar as a safe haven in a period of uncertainty, which becomes even more attractive against the backdrop of the Fed's tough policy," says a trader in foreign exchange transactions at Renaissance Capital Investment Company. Mikhail Rodichkin - Friday's U.S. labor market data strongly outperformed expectations, giving the Fed the opportunity to raise rates by 75 bp this month, while the ECB is just getting ready to make its first rate hike Goldman Sachs economists believe expectations are falling growth of the EU economy by 50 bp leads to a fall in the EUR/USD rate by 1%."

12:27 Putin will meet with Erdogan in Tehran on July 19.

Vladimir Putin is going to visit Iran "in the coming days," the Iranian official news agency writes , citing the chairman of the parliament's economic commission. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the message and added that Putin would meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Tehran on July 19.

This will be Putin's second foreign visit after the start of the war, at the end of June he traveled to Turkmenistan.

July, 12. The main thing for the past night and morning

• The Ministry of Digital Development proposed to oblige businesses to transfer customer data to the state without prior depersonalization - it is assumed that it will be carried out by state information systems of the authorized state bodies themselves. It is assumed that this data will be used for the development of AI. Business is dissatisfied with the proposal, and experts state that there can be no protection of personal data without depersonalization.
• The head of the pro-Russian administration of Novaya Kakhovka in the Kherson region said seven people were killed and several dozen injured as a result of a Ukrainian missile attack on the city. The administration said that as a result of the strike of HIMARS rocket launchers in Novaya Kakhovka, warehouses with mineral fertilizers and saltpeter detonated. The blow was delivered late on Monday evening, the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on the destruction of ammunition depots and Russian equipment.
• The US continues to discuss with allies and third countries a price ceiling for Russian oil. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is meeting today with her Japanese counterpart, Shunichi Suzuki, to discuss the matter. The day before, a senior US administration official told reporters that without the introduction of a price ceiling, oil could rise in price to $140 as sanctions against Russia come into effect. . On Tuesday afternoon, the head of the Japan, he said, expressed its concerns that the price ceiling could be set too low, but the US proposed range of $40-60 per barrel (the market price is now ($105) was not rejected International energy agency Fatih Birol, who stressed that oil products should also fall under it.
• The British chain Lush will close all remaining stores in Russia, found out Kommersant . The company was unable to organize deliveries to the country even on the terms of parallel imports.
• The former Russian PwC, which was renamed Trust Technologies, released an unexpectedly optimistic report on the prospects of the Russian car market: already in 2024 it may exceed the level of 2021 (1.5 million cars), according to the company. Already in 2022, according to her estimates, sales may exceed 1 million cars - this is better than the forecast of the Ministry of Industry and Trade and AvtoVAZ (750 thousand).

17:33 Imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny (included in the list of terrorists and extremists) announced the creation of the Anti-Corruption Foundation International, an international non-profit organization to combat corruption.

“The fund will be completely transparent and understandable, and the first contribution to its existence will be the Sakharov Prize awarded to me by the European Parliament (50 thousand euros),” the statement says. The Supervisory Board included Yuliya Navalny's wife, former Belgian Prime Minister, MEP Guy Verhofstadt, publicist Ann Applebaum and philosopher Francis Fukuyama, who is under Russian sanctions.

17:20 In the meantime, the euro has come even closer to parity with the dollar: for a unit of European currency, they give less than a cent to an American unit (1 to $ 1.0057). Back in February, the euro was trading at $1.15.

A series of increasingly aggressive Fed rate hikes has spurred the dollar, while the Russian invasion of Ukraine has worsened eurozone growth forecasts and pushed up energy prices . On the other hand, parity has long been a too obvious target for investors, and a short bounce is likely on profit-taking, market participants say.

17:05 The dollar is again below 60 rubles on the Moscow Exchange.

16:56 In the near future, a "Russian-Turkish summit meeting" is planned, RIA Novosti reported with reference to the Kremlin.

Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan today. “The exchange of views on the situation around Ukraine continued, including in the context of coordinating efforts to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea and the export of grain to world markets,” the Kremlin said in a release .

Ankara quotes Erdogan as saying that "the time has come for action to implement the plan to create safe corridors for grain exports."

16:35 The Central Bank clarified the rules for maintaining a tax deduction when transferring foreign securities from an individual investment account (IIA) to another broker due to sanctions. The deduction is not lost if one of the three conditions is met:

• For the investor, only the depository has changed, and the securities continue to be accounted for on the IIS, opened before the introduction of restrictive measures;
• All assets, as well as rights and obligations under the IIS maintenance agreement are transferred to another broker;
• When transferring the accounting of foreign assets to IIS, it was stopped, but resumed within a month with another broker.

IIAs provide tax benefits and are of two types - type A allows you to return 13% of the amount entered on IIS for the year, type B - does not pay income tax on income from securities. At the beginning of May 2022, almost 5.2 million individual investment accounts were opened in Russia, the turnover on them exceeded 9.5 trillion rubles last year.

16:20 According to the Central Bank , Russia's current account surplus in January-June reached $138.5 billion, which is 3.5 times more than in the same period last year. The main factor in the dynamics is “a significant increase in exports due to favorable pricing conditions, with a decrease in imports,” follows from the message of the Central Bank. The decrease in payments to non-residents by the private sector contributed to the reduction in the deficit of primary and secondary income included in the balance sheet.

The positive balance in January-May was $110.3 billion.

15:22 Putin, by his decree , has simplified the acquisition of Russian citizenship for all citizens of Ukraine, and not just for residents of the LPR and DPR. "Establish that citizens of Ukraine, the Donetsk People's Republic or the Lugansk People's Republic and stateless persons permanently residing on the territory of the DPR, or LPR, or Ukraine ... have the right to apply for admission to the citizenship of the Russian Federation in a simplified manner," — says in the document.

Back in 2019, Putin extended the simplified procedure for obtaining citizenship to the entire Donbass, and not just the LPR and DPR.

14:52 Bloomberg devoted a large publication to an underestimated aspect of the European gas problem: in an effort to get LNG in developing countries, the EU deprives local communities of relatively clean energy. An example is the floating LNG plant Bonny Island in the Niger Delta, from which tankers regularly leave for Rotteddam. Meanwhile, residents of nearby cities are pouring homemade diesel into electric generators from oil stolen from world majors.

In total, there are currently 36 GW or $100 billion of gas energy projects in Africa, but there is no money for most. “Some countries have entered into production sharing agreements, and in all foreign companies pay taxes, but revenues are not enough for power grids and other infrastructure,” the agency writes. At the same time, development institutions, including the World Bank, are cutting funding for projects with a large carbon footprint, such as the large Central Termica de Temane thermal power plant in Mozambique.

Looking for "fast" gas in Africa is hypocrisy, says the former head of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, Carlos Lopez. “It is completely unacceptable when Africans are forced to give up obvious opportunities and at the same time demand more gas for Europe because of Russia’s war with Ukraine,” the ex-official says.

14:08 The Italian Eni announced that on Monday Gazprom would reduce gas supplies to it by a third - from 32 million to 21 million cubic meters.

12:34 The Krasnodar court replaced the decision to suspend the operation of the CPC pipeline consortium by imposing a fine of 200,000 rubles instead.

The Primorsky District Court of Novorossiysk on July 5 ruled to suspend transportation through the oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (Transneft and KazMunayGas) for 30 days. After that, the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, called for making the supply of Kazakh oil via the Trans-Caspian route (through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and further to Europe) a priority.

In mid-June, Tokayev said that Kazakhstan would comply with Western sanctions: “Sanctions are sanctions, we should not violate them, especially since we receive notifications that in case of violation of sanctions, so-called secondary sanctions from the West will follow against our economy. ".

Two thirds of Kazakh export oil goes through the CPC. The oil pipeline terminal in Novorossiysk worked with restrictions in March-April due to damage.

12:12 Twitter quotes fell by 7.8% in premarket on Monday on the news about the imminent start of litigation with Elon Musk. Since the billionaire refused the deal, the company's capitalization has already decreased by $2.2 billion and is now almost 40% less than the $44 billion that Musk wanted to pay in April. It's understandable why Musk is trying to cancel the deal, the question is how devastating the whole epic will be for Twitter, experts say.

10:19 Electrolux Professional leaves Russia - it will sell the business to local management. The company employs only 25 people in Russia, the country provides it with about 1% of revenue. However, it is often key equipment for businesses, especially restaurants and laundromats.

10:15 The European gas market played the news of the weekend about Canada's permission to supply a turbine for Nord Stream 1 to Russia. The price of gas on the ICE Futures site at the beginning of trading on Monday fell by 12% to 154 euros per megawatt-hour or $1,640 per thousand cubic meters, writes RBC . By 12:00 Moscow time, quotes won back most of the fall.

The main thing for the night and morning:

• Nord Stream 1 was stopped today at 7 am Moscow time. In the West, they fear that deliveries will not resume in the same volumes - or at all - even after the return of the gas-compressor turbine to Russia. In any case, they will not have time to return the unit from Canada before the end of the scheduled maintenance of the "pipe" .
• VK is actively involved in the fight to buy ivi, Russia's largest online cinema in terms of revenue.
• Investors consider it more likely (60% to 40%) that Bitcoin will fall to $10,000 than a rise to $30,000, the showed MLIV Pulse survey . Polarization of sentiments has been added to the bearish moods: 24% of retail investors (and 18% of professional ones) consider cryptocurrencies to be complete garbage, and 23% and 26%, respectively, consider the future of the economy.
• In Russia, data will be published on the income of the population (from 10% with the lowest income to 10% with the highest) and a quarterly indicator of non-oil and gas GDP. Both will allow us to more quickly assess the negative shifts in the economy.
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov in an interview with the Times spoke about the instruction of President Zelensky to retake the southern regions of Ukraine. To do this, it is planned to mobilize up to a million people - and use weapons supplied by the West.
• British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss entered the fight for premiership after the resignation of Boris Johnson, but she has at least 10 competitors. All candidates in a little over a week should be sifted through the process of party voting in parliament, and leave two for election by members of the Conservative Party.
• Twitter and Elon Musk are preparing for trial after the billionaire refused to buy the company. It's going to be a heavyweight battle: Twitter has hired Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, which employs some of the best merger attorneys in the US, including a former Delaware Court of Chancery judge. That is where the lawsuit will be considered.

Continued online The Bell 11 July. You can watch last week's broadcast here .