Translated material
The price of a “special operation” in Ukraine. Online August 24
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, which began on February 24
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This online is complete. Read the continuation here .
19:16 RBC announced the change of the owner of the Vedomosti newspaper. He is now a native of the magazine "Expert", the former deputy editor-in-chief of RBC for media projects, the former deputy editor-in-chief of the information service of the REN TV channel Oleg Leonov. Before that, the publication through the "Support" company belonged to Ivan Eremin.
19:02 Another week of deflation in Russia: prices fell by 0.15% after 0.13% deflation in the week by August 15 and by 0.08% in the week by August 8. Taking into account the fact that in June and July there was also deflation (0.35% and 0.39% respectively), deflation by the end of the summer is practically guaranteed.
Inflation in annual terms slowed down to 14.6%.
18:11 According to TASS , IKEA will retain 700 employees in Russia and will not sell stores. The agency’s source claims that the company “plans to return to the Russian Federation on its own within a year or two, after the change in the economic situation and the easing of sanctions pressure.” There is no independent confirmation of this yet.
17:10 The Washington Post published the third series of material about the war in Ukraine - it is devoted to the reasons for the failure of the Russian offensive on Kiev. Based on interviews with Ukrainian officials, starting with President Volodymyr Zelensky, high-ranking and ordinary military, as well as Western politicians and military, the newspaper concludes that Kiev was saved by the resilience and effective actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the decisiveness of the political leadership, against the backdrop of Russia's incorrect assessment of the situation and template actions of the Russian Armed Forces. Main:
- Zelensky in the first days of the “special operation” did not rule out resignation, “if this stops the Russian bloodshed.” But he refused to leave Kyiv immediately, because he was firmly convinced that the “surrender of the center of power” would cause an immediate collapse of the government and power in general.
- Even his military adviser Aleksey Arestovich was convinced that Zelensky needed to flee because of the threat to his life. Foreign politicians, with whom Zelensky spoke in the early days, did not expect Kyiv to hold out even for weeks, and offered him to maintain the continuity of power in the evacuation.
- The Kremlin seriously counted on the flight of Zelensky with the government and the fact that small, disorganized forces would remain in Kyiv. On the first day, Andrei Yermak, the head of Zelensky’s office, called Dmitry Kozak to demand surrender, and Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov was called by Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, “who conveyed the words of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that the invasion would stop after surrender.”
- The Ukrainian military did not believe in the scenario of an attack on Kyiv, but prepared for it, almost without informing the political leadership about it. Little was known about these preparations, even by US intelligence.
- One of the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, WP sources call the withdrawal of the heavy Pion self-propelled guns from the Russian strike, as well as the destruction of the strip of the Gostomel airfield near Kiev, which was brought up in advance by heavy artillery. Whether these events are connected, the article does not say, but one way or another, the Russian plan for the rapid transfer of weapons and personnel to Kyiv was thwarted. Further actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine forced the Russian troops to turn into battle formations at a great distance from the capital, further slowing down the offensive.
- An important episode was the destruction of the dam on the Irpin River with the flooding of the floodplain, which did not allow the Russian Armed Forces to reach Kyiv from the West.
The Bell retold the first WP article describing how the United States became confident in the inevitability of war back in 2021 and tried to convince its allies and Ukraine of this, and the second about the reasons for the fundamental miscalculation of the FSB in assessing the situation in Ukraine is here .
15:56 Russia has offered several Asian countries to secure a 30% discount on Russian oil in long-term contracts, writes Bloomberg. This is a way to cushion the blow from the price cap and find buyers for the oil released by the EU oil embargo.
One such country is Indonesia, whose president has received a Russian proposal but fears sanctions, and presumably India. US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo is in India right now, coordinating a coalition of countries on the oil ceiling.
14:35 Joe Biden announced the allocation of a new largest assistance package to Ukraine - almost $ 3 billion. It includes air defense systems, anti-drone systems, radars for various purposes, artillery systems and ammunition for them.
13:18 Leading economic media published articles six months after the start of the "special operation". The main idea of the majority is that the conflict showed the weakness of Russia and the resilience of Ukraine (the most important component of which is the military assistance of the allies).
- Bloomberg headlined the article "Six Months of Putin's War Shattered Russia's Image as a Superpower." The main conclusion is that the Russian economy is holding up better than the military machine, which, in organizing complex military operations, cannot compete not only with the United States, but with individual second-rate NATO countries. But Russia may still try to turn the tide in Ukraine through a sharp escalation, experts say.
- The Wall Street Journal believes that both the military and economic preponderance are now tilting towards Ukraine, and the current positional impasse is unlikely to last until winter. The main question is who will last longer in the war of attrition - Ukraine with all-round help from the West or Russia in international isolation.
- The Financial Times draws attention to the fact that neither side now has the strength and means for a decisive offensive. “Putin hopes that the counter-effect of the sanctions imposed on Russia will force the West to ‘blink first’, the EU and the US to withdraw military support for Ukraine and force Kiev to sign an agreement fixing Russia’s territorial gains,” the newspaper writes, citing a source close to the Kremlin.
11:59 Shoigu explained the slowdown in the offensive during the "special operation" in Ukraine (today exactly six months from the moment it began). According to him, the slowdown is a conscious decision, which is “driven by the desire to minimize civilian casualties.” He stated this at a meeting of defense ministers of the SCO member states.
What else did the minister say:
- the United States is to blame for the food crisis - they impose sanctions that worsen the situation in the global economy and disrupt communications;
- The United States seeks to maintain global dominance and, for this, put pressure on independent states using blackmail, threats, color revolutions, coup d'état, disinformation);
- US arms supplies to Ukraine "multiply the number of human casualties, prolong the military conflict";
- the conflict in Ukraine has become a pretext for the United States to unleash an economic and information war against Russia.
The main thing for the night and morning:
— The former mayor of Yekaterinburg, Yevgeny Roizman, was detained in a criminal case on discrediting the Russian Armed Forces. The telegram channel Mash published a video of his detention at 4:30 am Moscow time. Roizman's apartment, as well as the offices of his private museum of the Nevyansk icon and the foundation, are being searched. It is reported that a lawyer is not allowed to see the politician. He managed to tell reporters from the window of the apartment that a case had been opened against him in Moscow under Part 3 of Art. 280 of the Criminal Code. In the spring, Roizman was already fined three times for discrediting the RF Armed Forces. with Roizman was published on the YouTube channel “Tell Gordeeva” What caused this time is unknown, but a week ago, an interview , where he, among other things, spoke out against the “special operation” in Ukraine.
Former Twitter security chief Peter Zatko, the legendary Mudge hacker, accused Twitter of covering up serious security issues and underreporting the number of fake accounts. Zatko, who was fired from the company earlier this year, filed a complaint with the SEC in which he said he "found exceptional, gross violations committed by Twitter in every area for which he was responsible." These allegations could seriously hamper Twitter's litigation with Elon Musk. The billionaire's lawyer has already announced that Zatko has been subpoenaed. Twitter shares fell more than 7% on the news.
- Russian pre-trial detention centers are 96% full (more than 114 thousand people), writes Kommersant , citing data from the Federal Penitentiary Service. In May, according to the department, the situation was worse, now "the total filling limit has not been exceeded." However, human rights activists insist that Moscow detention centers are significantly overcrowded. For example, in "Matrosskaya Tishina" the PMC counted more than 600 "extra" prisoners. The situation is especially difficult, according to human rights activists, in the third building: “People sleep on the floor, cells and corridors are covered with fungus, black toilets, rusty pipes. Darkness". A similar situation is observed in St. Petersburg and the region, in the Stavropol Territory, in the Krasnodar Territory, Rostov Region, Crimea and other regions. Lawyers link the “overlimit” in the pre-trial detention center with a “special operation”.
- Analysts of the CMASF in a new review noted an "outwardly paradoxical effect" in the consumer behavior of citizens in the second quarter, reports Kommersant : both the consumption rate and the rate of organized savings of citizens in deposits grew at the same time. Experts consider this “the result of the population’s adaptation to new conditions”: “If in the first quarter the population “left” savings in favor of cash rubles and foreign currency, then in the second quarter, against the backdrop of stabilization of the exchange rate and higher rates, it seems to have returned to traditional savings.” In the third quarter, they expect the savings rate to fall, which will further support consumption. But there is no talk of restoring demand yet.