The price of a “special operation” in Ukraine. Online September 6

The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, which began on February 24

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This online is complete. Read the continuation here .

22:02 The European Union is promoting the introduction of a tax on excess profits of energy companies to compensate the population for "astronomical" electricity bills, reports the FT. The initiative is planned to be discussed at a meeting of EU energy ministers on Friday, September 9th. It will target both fossil fuel producers and energy companies with a low carbon footprint, which “artificially inflated energy prices bring additional profits,” according to people familiar with the plans.

21:25 Hungary threatens to block the extension of some EU anti-Russian sanctions if three oligarchs are not excluded from the "black" lists, writes Radio Liberty . According to the interlocutors of the publication in diplomatic circles, these are Alisher Usmanov, Petr Aven and Viktor Rashnikov. The EU ambassadors are planning to discuss the issue on September 7, the deadline for agreement is September 15. In addition, Budapest asks for an exception for humanitarian organizations and allow them to do business with some Russian banks that have fallen under sanctions.

20:17 Liz Truss, in her first speech as Prime Minister of Great Britain, promised that a new package of measures will be adopted this week to combat soaring electricity prices. In total, she identified three priority goals: to achieve economic growth through tax cuts and reforms, solve the energy crisis and eliminate the problems caused by the pandemic in the functioning of the National Health Service.

18:34 The IAEA has released a report on nuclear safety issues in Ukraine. The main conclusions of the IAEA based on the results of the mission's trip to the Zaporozhye NPP:

• The shelling to which the station is exposed has not yet provoked an emergency, but is a constant threat and could lead to a nuclear catastrophe;
• Numerous damages were found at the station, including damage to the spent and fresh nuclear fuel storage, the building with emergency systems for the physical protection of the station, and tanks with lubricating oil for the turbines.
• A protective zone should be established around the Zaporozhye NPP;
• Military vehicles must be removed from the territory of the station;
• All “affected parties” must take responsibility for securing the supply chains to the facility.
• Ukrainian plant personnel work under conditions of high stress and pressure, as well as a shortage of staff, which increases the risk of error and poses a threat to nuclear safety.

16:51 The European Commission has approved a proposal to completely stop the visa facilitation agreement with Russia. The decision comes into force on September 12.

In practice, this means that:

• the visa fee for Russians will increase from 35 to 80 euros;
• the standard time for consulates to make decisions on visa applications will increase from 10 to 15 days and can be extended up to 45 days if necessary;
• there will be stricter rules for multiple entry visas, it will become more difficult to obtain them;
• the list of documents for obtaining a visa will become longer.

14:52 Liz Truss officially appointed Prime Minister of Great Britain at an audience with Queen Elizabeth II. The ceremony took place at the monarch's summer residence at Balmoral Castle in Scotland rather than at Buckingham Palace in London due to the queen's health.

14:44 From September 12, Moscow Exchange will provide access to the stock market to non-resident clients from friendly countries, as well as non-residents controlled by Russian legal entities or individuals. “In addition, such clients will be able to make repo / repo transactions with the CCP with shares and bonds,” the exchange writes.

Since August 8, the Moscow Exchange has allowed non-residents from friendly countries only to the derivatives market. Access to the stock remains closed.

14:28 Chairman of the Board of Gazprom Alexey Miller and Chairman of the Board of Directors of CNPC Dai Houliang agreed to pay for gas supplies through the Power of Siberia in rubles and yuan, reported . Gazprom

In addition, by the end of the year, gas from the Kovykta field will enter the gas pipeline and "Gazprom's contractual obligations to increase gas supplies to China in 2023 will be ensured."

13:43 The Central Bank ordered brokers from October 1 not to execute orders from unqualified investors if, as a result of the transaction, the share of securities of issuers from unfriendly countries in the investor's portfolio exceeds 15%.

• From November 1, 2022, the threshold will drop to 10% of the client's portfolio, from December 1 to 5%. And from January 1, 2023, the orders of "nonquals" for the purchase of such securities will not be executed at all.
• The prescription applies to share receipts and orders to enter short positions, and does not apply to closing short positions, foreign securities of Russian companies and issuers from friendly countries.
• The Central Bank writes that in this way it protects investors from blocking assets by foreign depositories: “It is very difficult to protect the rights of the owners of these securities after the fact, since the solution to the problem lies outside Russian jurisdiction.”
• We talked about the problems of Russian investors with foreign securities here .

13:30 Norwegian Equinor estimated the amount of margin calls of European energy traders (collateral for which must be provided at the level of the union and individual countries) at least $1.5 trillion. “Physically, the market works, but liquidity support is needed,” said Helge Haugan, vice president of the company. In addition to Germany, urgent loans to the industry are already provided by Finland and Switzerland, at the European level they will be discussed on Friday.

13:01 Approximately 2% of the total capacity of container lines is idle due to the fact that giant container ships are waiting for unloading in the ports of the North Sea, and all over the world, due to the logistics crisis, 11% of the shipped cargo is “stuck”, writes Bloomberg . Container traffic on the main route from Asia to Europe via the Red Sea has fallen by 16%.

12:33 According to the AEB, sales of new cars in Russia in August fell by 62.4% yoy to 41,698, but grew by 29% compared to July. Since the beginning of the year, cars have been sold 61% less than a year ago (410,548).

• Sales of "AvtoVAZ" in August decreased by 7% - less than that of all other companies in the top 10. The domestic concern occupied 43% of the market.
• The third place in sales (after Kia, minus 77%) was taken by the Chinese Haval (+26%).
• Top 3 sales models in August became domestic: Granta, Niva and Vesta. In fourth place is Haval Jolion.

11:43 The Ministry of Economic Development has improved the forecast for GDP to minus 2.9% in 2022 and minus 0.9% in 2023, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum. According to him, the economy can move to quarterly growth by the end of 2022, and growth of 2.6% is expected from 2024.

11:35 New UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's business energy subsidy plan will add another £40bn to £130bn household subsidy spending. Two options are preliminary considered: fixed prices per unit of energy equivalent or fixed discounts.

11:08 Gas prices in Europe have sharply accelerated the decline, falling by about 12% and already below $2,220 per thousand cubic meters. The reason is probably in the latest data on the filling of gas storage facilities in Europe: the rate of their filling on September 4 increased, the overall level of filling is already more than 81.9%. If it goes on like this and no harsh cold sets in, by the end of September, European companies will fill gas storage facilities by 90%. In addition, the FT reported that the European Commission has developed two options for the price ceiling for Russian gas, which could also help reduce gas prices.

10:40 am Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov commented on a Bloomberg article about a confidential bad forecast for the Russian economy (our morning newsletter is dedicated to it ) at the WEF.

“We have always considered and consider different scenarios. There is a scenario “all the fears of the world”. But we must understand that we use these scenarios, among other things, to compare what will happen if we implement or do not implement certain programs. They should be treated as “horror stories” for workers or something, ” RBC quotes Reshetnikov.

It is noteworthy that Bloomberg asked the Ministry of Economy for a comment, but did not receive it.

10:35 The largest players in the cash collection market have decided to significantly - up to 30% - raise tariffs, learned Kommersant . The service has been cheap and unprofitable in recent years - therefore, for example, it is more profitable for car dealerships to accept cash than pay 1.5–2% commission on cards.

10:09 Russia buys millions of shells and rockets from North Korea, writes The New York Times, citing US intelligence data. There are no details yet, but the publication considers this a sure sign that Russia is beginning to lack not only high-tech weapons. The publication reports the purchase of Iranian drones as an established fact.

The main thing for the night and morning:

• Bloomberg received access to a confidential forecast for the development of the Russian economy, prepared for the strategic meeting of the Russian government on August 30. Unlike published forecasts, it describes a multi-year recession in the context of tougher sanctions and a severe crisis in import-dependent industries.
• The European Commission has developed two versions of the price ceiling for Russian gas for an emergency meeting on the energy crisis this Friday. One of them is a hard threshold for all EU countries, the other is the division of the union into "red" and "green" zones according to the degree of dependence on gas, with the introduction of a ceiling only in "red" countries.
• in August After an unexpected bounce in July, the Russian economy slows down . The leading indicators lead to a single conclusion: the July recovery is a reflection of the fact that the situation in the economy was not as bad as it was seen in March, but there are no further reasons for optimism.
• The energy subsidy program of incoming British Prime Minister Liz Truss turned out to be more expensive than estimates - not 100, but 130 billion pounds in a year and a half. The goal is to keep the average household's annual electricity and gas bill below £2,000 (up from the "market" £3,500 since October).
• VTB has restarted transfers to China in yuan, bypassing SWIFT. The limits are clearly focused on business: a one-time transfer amount of up to 20 million rubles in equivalent, a monthly limit of 100 million rubles.
• X5 will open stores in the Far East. In 2023, the country's largest retailer has planned at least 100 convenience stores in four regions of the region, the investment is estimated at 10 billion rubles for three years.
• "AvtoVAZ" in the best case expects to produce 230 thousand cars this year, said the general director of the concern Maxim Sokolov. Last year, the car factory assembled 385,000 cars.

Continued online September 6th. Read the previous one here .