"Kommersant": mobilization and flight of Russians will roll the labor market

Military mobilization and its outflow of the population from Russia will lead to a collapse in the labor market. In the incomplete two weeks from the moment of the declaration of mobilization, he lost at least 700 thousand able -bodied citizens, which is about 1% of the country's entire labor force. Experts note that the problems will intensify, since highly qualified specialists often leave abroad. This was written by Kommersant with reference to the calculations of analysts, as well as the assessments discussed in the government.

The indefinite business prospects create risks for the entire labor market, noted in the center of macroeconomic analysis and short -term forecasting (TsMAKP): entrepreneurs do not understand what to wait in the near future, and are in no hurry to hire new employees. This is evidenced by the statistics of new vacancies on the labor exchange even before the start of mobilization: a decrease by 18.4% in August, by 16.7% in July in annual terms.

However, mobilization will lead to a break in the trend: a reduction in vacancies, coupled with a reduction in labor, can lead to a shortage of personnel in the Russian labor market. At the moment, the outflow of labor resources is estimated at 700 thousand people, and this figure continues to grow.

“The influence of the disposal of at least 700 thousand people (migration and the first wave of mobilization) will lead to labor deficit, and services will be especially damaged,” Igor Polyakov from the TsMAKP notes.

The authorities are belatedly reacting to the quite expected problems in the labor market. At the moment, at the final stage there is only the first block of measures, which should simplify the work of business and entrepreneurs in the context of the declared mobilization. The sources of the publication claim that this week measures should earn. It is noted that the government was not ready for the consequences, he had to evaluate the actual problems related to mobilization. We are talking about the whole complex of difficulties - from the fulfillment of contract obligations to the existence of some enterprises in principle.

The key difficulty for large business is the legal basis for mobilization, as well as the issue of compensation for financial support for mobilized. The authorities consider the option of introducing tax benefits for such enterprises. The industry business unions (Business Russia, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Rossiya Russia) insist that the authorities should support a business that suffers from mobilization. However, for example, to help enterprises that are on the verge of closing due to mobilization, lobbying groups do not want to, they only ask the authorities to pay compensation by mobilized, freeing the business from this duty.

The most acute question is about delay and armor from mobilization: many companies have already complained that the Ministry of Defense mobilizes leading specialists who are often critical for enterprises. The government send requests to free all the founders of enterprises, their heads, chief accountants, individual entrepreneurs and heads of farms from the mobilization. Moreover, at the proposal of companies, the delay will not apply to new IPs - we are only talking about those enterprises that were opened at least six months ago. The issue of quotas for enterprises is also discussed so that according to the results of the mobilization of the company do not remain without employees at all. It is proposed to spread the reservation by 30% of employees with a state number of 15 or more people and 50% of the state, if the number is less than 15 people.