Bloomberg: Russia's income from oil has fallen to a minimum from the beginning of the war

The European oil embargo began to give a result even before the official start: against the backdrop of the upcoming export restrictions, Russia's income from the sale of oil by sea fell to a new minimum from the beginning of the war. This was reported by Bloomberg with reference to its own analysis of oil flows and calculation of budget revenues.

By October 21, according to the agency, Russia's income from the sale of oil by sea fell by $ 12 million - up to $ 121 million per week. At the same time, the average weekly rate fell by $ 8 million and is now about $ 137 million, descending to a minimum from the beginning of the war. Revenues fell due to the subsidence of export volumes, as well as a decrease in the export rate for oil to $ 6.06 per barrel of oil, which became the lowest value since February 2021. At the same time, the trend for reducing income will probably be preserved, since in November the export duty rate will continue to decrease and amount to $ 5.83 per barrel.

Moreover, the discount on Russian oil in relation to the world oil variety Brent began to grow again and in October amounted to about $ 25.5 per barrel. Moreover, the income will fall even more, since at the moment the general shipments of oil to the European market, on the contrary, jumped: the countries are trying to fill their storage facilities on the eve of the oil embargo, which begins on December 5. After this date, European companies will be prohibited not only to supply oil to the EU, but also to provide any services, including financing and insurance.

The main directions of Russian oil supplies are now concentrated around Turkey, India and China. However, in recent weeks, deliveries in these areas also showed a decrease, and the Indian direction has suffered most strongly. The fact is that European companies are still engaged in insurance of courts, and oil supplies to India are most time. Therefore, two local oil refineries refused to supply Russian oil, as they risk not reaching the destination to the introduction of sanctions, and the company is not ready to take on additional risks.

In total, China, India and Turkey account for about 2 million barrels per day, which is slightly lower than the peak values ​​of June, when Russia directed 2.2 million barrels per day to these countries. In total, exports to these countries fell by 330 thousand barrels per day, but it can be partially compensated by tankers, whose final point is not indicated. Such tankers, according to the agency, are ready to direct about 310 thousand barrels of oil per day.

The total export volume decreased on average in four weeks, falling from the highest level in mid -August, but remaining above 3 million barrels per day for the second week. In addition to a decrease in the Asian direction, a decrease in demand for Russian oil was also recorded in southern Europe - in particular, in Bulgaria and Romania.

Bloomberg and Reuters agencies previously reported that Russia or companies associated with it are currently buying up a huge number of tankers to create their own “tanker shadow fleet”. Agencies suggest that in this way Moscow is preparing to introduce a ceiling of oil prices, which prohibits countries to purchase or provide services to escort export, if the purchase price was higher than the set ceiling.