Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online November 10
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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21:16 Russia's GDP in 2022 will decrease by 2.9-3.3% instead of the previously forecasted 7%, said head of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin in an interview with RT. According to him, this was achieved due to the high flexibility of the Russian economy, as well as the fact that many companies reoriented to new markets or purchases in circumvention of sanctions. At the same time, part of the burden of reducing GDP will be transferred to 2023 - then, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the economy may shrink by another 0.8%, Kudrin warned. It may take 2-3 years to return to pre-crisis levels.
18:31 The Council of the EU and the European Parliament have tentatively agreed not to issue Schengen visas on Russian passports issued in the annexed territories of Ukraine (DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions) and Georgia (South Ossetia, Abkhazia).
17:13 October inflation in the US did not live up to forecasts - but not in the usual direction
Inflation in the US in October fell to 7.7% in annual terms from 8.2% in September, the base - to 6.3% from 6.6%. This is less than the median forecasts of economists, as well as monthly growth (0.4% headline inflation, 0.3% core). The level is still uncomfortable for the economy, but it leaves the Fed room to maneuver. Accordingly, traders see a higher probability of a December rate hike of 0.5 percentage points rather than 0.75 percentage points: government bond yields and the US dollar fell, market indices rose noticeably.
16:08 The Dutch Prosus (a structure of the South African Naspers) has written off its stake in VK and left the shareholders, the Russian company said. And already VK sold shares to management for 24.8 billion rubles. As of December 31, 2021, Prosus owned 25.7% economic and 12.3% voting shares in VK. In March, after VK CEO Vladimir Kiriyenko was sanctioned, Prosus decided to write off the entire stake.
15:41 The authorities have stopped disclosing data on energy consumption. They indirectly indicate the state of the Russian economy.
Data on energy consumption was published by the "System Operator" (dispatcher of the power system), but he will not disclose the figure for October. this According to the profile publication Peretok.ru, was reported by Interfax. There is no news on the website of the agency itself, as well as data for October on the website of the System Operator (data for September appeared there on October 5). The Bell sent a request to the company.
"System Operator" decided not to disclose information, because "cases of incorrect use of operational data on the operation of the unified energy system of Russia have become more frequent lately," Peretok.ru writes.
At the end of October, Kommersant, citing preliminary data from System Operator, wrote that the demand for electricity in Russia is falling again. In the period from October 1 to October 29, it decreased by 0.77% compared to October last year. Prior to this, total consumption fell twice this year, but less significantly: in February by 0.3% and in July by 0.2%.
14:23 LNG from Sakhalin-2 (from which Shell recently exited) is being sold in Asia near the market price, writes Bloomberg. The "sanctions" discount disappeared at the peak of demand and lowering fears of direct sanctions against LNG. Of the three batches with delivery in December, two went on the market, one even with a premium. Back in September, there was a big discount on Sakhalin liquefied gas, the agency notes. In October, Russian LNG supplies increased and recovered to the March level, to almost 3 million tons.
12:44 Sollers confirmed that it will buy out a share in the joint venture with Mazda leaving Russia for a symbolic euro. The Mazda Sollers assembly plant in Vladivostok, which produced Mazda6 sedans, CX-5 and CX-9 crossovers, remains in Russia. The company intends to start assembling cars in 2023, but which ones are still unknown.
its share in the joint venture to At the end of October, Sollers transferred Ford Motor, which also left the Russian market. The shares were transferred at par value with a five-year repurchase option. The joint venture assembled Ford Transit minibuses in Yelabuga.
11:23 The United States estimates the combat losses of Russia and Ukraine (killed and wounded) as approximately equal, and on both sides they exceed 100 thousand people. The assessment was given by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, General Mark Milley. Also, in his opinion, 40 thousand civilians were killed in Ukraine.
The latest estimate of the Russian Ministry of Defense for mid-September is 5,937 dead Russian servicemen and 61,207 Ukrainian.
10:28 The government has included the Russian application store RuStore, developed by VK "together with the largest Russian IT companies with the support of the Ministry of Digital Development," in the list of mandatory installations on electronic devices. It replaces the program for accessing socially significant information resources APP List in the list. “The reason for the replacement is that the functionality of RuStore duplicates and expands the capabilities of APP List,” the government writes. The decision will come into force on March 1, 2023.
9:33 German Gref disclosed part of Sberbank's financial results for the first time since the beginning of the war.
- In January-October, the largest state-owned bank received more than 50 billion rubles in profit. He got out of the loss only in October, follows from the words of the president: last month, the profit amounted to 122.8 billion rubles. The result is still incomparable with last year, when Sberbank received 1.05 trillion rubles of net profit in 10 months.
- Lending increased (retail - by 9%, corporate - by 11%), the volume of issuance returned to the levels of the second half of 2021, the share of overdue debt is only 2.2% of the portfolio.
- Beginning in October, Sberbank, which is under external sanctions, will resume regular monthly disclosures. “We have about 2 million retail shareholders, and their number is growing. It is important for us that investors have the opportunity to appreciate our business,” Gref said.
9:21 Experts from Technologies of Trust (former PwC in Russia) estimated direct sanction losses in exports of 20 non-resource non-energy industries at 19% or $25.7 billion. The study was ordered by the Accounts Chamber, the results are close to the government's estimate (17%).
80% of the losses were "provided" by the European Union. As a whole, it will be possible to reorient deliveries and approach the level of 2021 by 2030, follows from the report. Exports of metallurgical and food products are expected to grow the most, while there will be a decline in the chemical industry and woodworking.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Binance changed its mind about buying the world's third-largest crypto exchange FTX a day later. The company said it made this decision after a "corporate due diligence". The deal, which looked more like a robbery takeover, was announced on Tuesday, the message causing a collapse in the cryptocurrency market. Binance's refusal to buy FTX led to further investor flight. Bitcoin has fallen to a two-year low. The continuation of the FTX cryptocurrency drama will be in today's morning newsletter.
- The Indonesian authorities have confirmed that Vladimir Putin will not come to the G20 summit, which will be held in November in Bali. this The day before, Bloomberg reported , citing sources. Sergey Lavrov will represent Russia at the summit. Putin may join one of the meetings online, an Indonesian official said. There are still no official statements from the Russian side on this matter.
- Sheremetyevo Airport offered airlines not to let passengers on flights who came to the landing with excess hand luggage, learned Kommersant . According to the rules, airlines have the right to require passengers to re-register excess hand luggage as checked baggage. But in this case, things must be additionally inspected. If the excess hand luggage was discovered only at the landing, the passenger will have to return to the check-in hall, re-register it as baggage, which will still be inspected and loaded onto the aircraft. This will definitely delay the flight. Therefore, in practice, airlines either allow items to be carried into the cabin or checked in as baggage without re-inspections (sometimes without additional payment if the carriers do not have portable cash registers at the gate). In the summer, the Federal Air Transport Agency demanded that airports strictly comply with the requirements for re-screening personal belongings when checking in luggage. In this regard, Sheremetyevo issued its recommendations: it proposes either to remove passengers with excess hand luggage from flights, or to send such luggage on the next flight in order to avoid delays due to additional screening.
- US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, during a recent visit to Kiev, tried to “test the waters” for a talks between Ukraine and Russia, reports NBC . Washington expects a slowdown in hostilities in the winter and sees this as an opportunity for a diplomatic settlement of the conflict, the channel's interlocutors say.
- Bloggers were explained the rules for labeling ads in accordance with the new law : they are required to mark as advertising all integrations for which the contract has not expired, even if they came out before the law came into force on September 1. In addition, bloggers are required to submit campaign data personally or through an advertising agency to approved advertising data operators.
- Sberbank proposed to the Central Bank to cancel the mandatory reserve requirements, reports Vedomosti . Now credit institutions must constantly keep on their accounts with the regulator a minimum percentage of ruble and foreign currency liabilities. Sber offers to rely on the experience of England, Canada, Australia, Sweden, New Zealand and Hong Kong, whose central banks have abolished the required reserves. The plans of the Central Bank to tighten reserve requirements may exacerbate the problems of the banking system, fears Sberbank.