Bloomberg: Russia's revenues from oil have fallen to a minimum since the beginning of the year

Russia's revenues from oil sales have sank to a minimum since the beginning of the war. According to Bloomberg’s estimates , Russia's weekly incomes from oil supplies have fallen to a minimum from the beginning of the year, dropping from November 4 to 11 by $ 31 million to $ 118 million. The average level of incomes in a month fell by $ 4 million and amounted to $ 130 million. The reduction occurred against the backdrop of an export fee for oil, which in November only composed only $ 5.83 from a barrel, as well as against the background of an increase in a discount on Russian oil on the eve of sanctions. The agency estimates a $ 25.5 per barrel on Russian oil of the Urals brand.

Russia continues to increase supplies to Asia, in particular, to China and India, and also increases export volumes to Turkey, the UAE, to Sri Lanka. The number of tankers who ceased to clarify their final destination is growing significantly, changing it to common points, for example, “Suez Canal” or “Port-Said” in Egypt. According to the agency, 2/3 of all Russian oil intended for export is now sent to Asia, only 2/5 before the war with Ukraine.

However, even the reorientation of supplies to Asian markets does not help Russia avoid reducing export reduction. The agency notes that the volume of daily supply has decreased to a minimum in three weeks and amounts to about 2.9 million barrels per day, of which China, India, Turkey and tankers, whose final destination has not been marked, has a total of 2.39 million barrels of oil per day. Deliveries to Europe continue to fall and are currently estimated at about 0.7 million barrels per day.

The agency notes that on the eve of the sanctions, which will earn from December 5, the number of tankers hiding their destination has increased by about the same amount as the number of tankers who went to India decreased. In the context of the last month, the average daily supply volume fell to 3.12 million barrels in knocking.

There is a decrease in supplies from the northern ports of Russia: deliveries of them are the longest, and they no longer fit into the “deadlines” of sanctions, that is, they will be delivered after January 19. Suppliers do not want to take on additional risks and are currently focused on those routes that are so far allowed by existing restrictions. From December 5, it is expected to earn a system of maximum oil prices from Russia. These sanctions include a ban on the provision of any (financial, safety, logistics and other services) if the price of Russian oil in the tanker exceeds the ceiling established by Western countries. The authors of restrictions have not yet been called the price itself, but it is expected that it will be above $ 60 per barrel. According to the Ministry of Finance, in October -November Russia the average cost of oil sale was $ 71.1 per barrel.

In early November, statistics testified that many countries planned to be additionally purchased by Russian oil before the imposition of sanctions. Against this background, export volumes from Russia grew to a maximum in five months and amounted to 3.6 million barrels per day. Iran is ready to help by Western sanctions, but the volumes of such support will probably be insignificant. Experts expect an even greater reduction in Moscow income, since Asian markets will not be able to fully replace European consumers.