Translated material
Biden's visit to Kyiv, megabudget expenditures and “15 points of a Russian citizen” from Navalny
Biden paid a short visit to Kyiv. Why did he come, what does this mean for Ukraine and how can the Kremlin respond
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Joe Biden paid a short visit to Kyiv on Monday. There was little practical meaning in it, but it is difficult to overestimate the symbolism of this trip. It took place on the eve of Vladimir Putin's address to the Federal Assembly and the anniversary of the recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR, and four days before the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In addition, Biden became the first US president to visit Kiev since 2008, and the US media have already compared his visit to the secret trips of George W. Bush to Iraq and Barack Obama to Afghanistan at the height of the wars in these countries.
- Biden's trip to Kyiv was not announced in advance. It was only known that he would visit Poland on February 20–22. Representatives of the White House denied to the last that Biden could get from there to Ukraine. The visit was first reported by the Ukrainian media and eyewitnesses who spotted the US President in the center of Kiev around noon. But almost immediately, Vladimir Zelensky confirmed the information. “Joseph Biden, welcome to Kyiv! Your visit is a very important manifestation of support for all Ukrainians,” he wrote on his Telegram channel, posting a photo with Biden. And on the website of the White House there was a release with a short statement by the President of the United States about the trip to Ukraine.
- The visit was prepared in the strictest secrecy, writes Bloomberg. Nevertheless, as the AP found out, and later confirmed by the US presidential administration, the US authorities contacted Russia before the trip to rule out "miscalculations that could lead to a confrontation between nuclear powers." During Biden's visit, air raid alerts went off in Kyiv and some other cities in Ukraine, warning of the possibility of Russian strikes, but there were no reports of explosions. Similarly, Zelenskiy's visit to Washington in December last year was secretly prepared. How the trip went, we told here .
- Biden's visit turned out to be very short: he met with Vladimir Zelensky and his wife at the Mariinsky Palace, in which he then made a short speech, walked around the center of Kyiv and left back to Poland. During the speech, Biden reflected on the resilience of the Ukrainian resistance, reports The Wall Street Journal. “A year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine will survive. Democracy stands,” said the President of the United States. He announced military assistance to Ukraine for $500 million and budget "for billions". Standing next to Zelensky, surrounded by American and Ukrainian flags, Biden promised Ukraine "unwavering support," writes the WSJ. “I think it is extremely important that there is no doubt, absolutely no, about the US support for Ukraine in this war,” he said.
- Ukrainian media assumed that Biden would announce the transfer of F-16 fighter jets and ATACMS missiles to Ukraine during the visit, but this did not happen. The announced package of military assistance will include the supply of artillery shells, anti-tank weapons and air defense radars. Whether the supply of aircraft and longer-range missiles was discussed in private between Biden and Zelensky, the White House declined to say. The topic of aircraft was actively discussed during Zelensky's recent visit to the UK, France and Belgium. We wrote about it here .
- During the brief talks, Biden and Zelensky focused on discussing the coming months of the war, said National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan . According to him, the presidents shared their views on 2023 and tried to come to a common understanding of the goals, talked about the state of affairs at the front and the needs of Ukraine in the military, energy, and social spheres.
- Biden's visit to Ukraine is reminiscent of the secret trips of George W. Bush to Iraq and Barack Obama to Afghanistan at the height of the wars in these countries, notes The New York Times . The White House was quick to point out that, unlike in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States does not have a military contingent in Ukraine. Biden arrived in Kyiv at a pivotal moment when some allies began to push for Ukraine to enter into peace talks, while agreeing to give Russia part of the territory, writes NYT. Even within the United States, there are opinions that it is necessary to reduce military support for Kyiv.
- Ukrainian media write about Biden's visit in an enthusiastic tone, calling it historic and unprecedented. Russian propagandists and government officials, on the contrary, are trying to downplay the significance of this trip. “Some old man has arrived somewhere,” commented on Andrey Klimov, deputy chairman of the Federation Council committee on international affairs, Biden’s visit. The head of the Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, called the trip "a demonstration that a crazy apocalyptic sect rules the United States." Dmitry Medvedev wrote a post saying that Ukraine lacks not the weapons promised by Biden, but the population, which has been rapidly declining in recent years.
What's in it for me
The White House clearly and openly formulated the purpose of Biden’s visit: he wanted to “demonstrate his commitment to the strategy of unity of the West against Putin”, “send a clear, accurate signal of the invariability of American support for Ukraine”, “demonstrate to the world that Ukraine successfully resists Russian aggression, and Russia suffers a strategic failure. In the Kremlin, the visit will be viewed "as further evidence that the US has staked on Russia's strategic defeat in the war and that the war itself has irrevocably turned into a war between Russia and the West," political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya told . Reuters She expects that in tomorrow's message, Putin may announce the final severance of relations with the West.
POLICY
Navalny has published a new political program. For the first time, he unambiguously advocated the return of Crimea to Ukraine.
On the eve of the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Aleksey Navalny, who is serving time in the colony, published “15 points of a Russian citizen who wants the best for his country.” The first four paragraphs are dedicated to condemning the war in Ukraine, which Navalny calls unjust and unprovoked, and its reasons are "political and economic problems within Russia, Putin's desire to retain power at any cost, and his obsession with his historical legacy." The next four points are united by the question "what to do?". Navalny proposes to withdraw all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory and return to the 1991 borders, that is, in fact, not only to return Kherson, Zaporozhye and Donbass to Ukraine, but also Crimea. This is the first time that Navalny has spoken out unequivocally in favor of the return of Crimea: he had previously condemned the annexation of the peninsula, but advised Ukrainians “not to fool yourself” about its return, because “Crimea is not a sausage sandwich to return back and forth.”
In addition, Navalny, in his 15 points, proposes, together with Ukraine, the United States, the EU and Britain, to seek acceptable ways to compensate for the damage caused to Ukraine, as well as to investigate war crimes. The last seven points are devoted to the issues of the change of power in Russia and the benefits that the country will receive from the immediate end of the war. According to Navalny, ideally, Putin's regime should be "dismantled" through general free elections and the convening of a Constitutional Assembly, and Russia should be part of Europe and follow the European path of development.
MONEY
Budget spending in February was even higher than in January
Operational data on the execution of the Russian budget by February 16 pointed not just to a faster growth in spending, but to its acceleration by January, drew the attention of the MMI economic channel. Budget revenues since the beginning of the year amounted to 951 billion rubles, expenditures - 4.92 trillion rubles, and the deficit, therefore, is 3.97 trillion rubles. On average, this gives expenses of 105 billion rubles a day, which is extrapolated to an excess of expenses over planned for the year by 9 trillion rubles, instead of the estimated 4.3 trillion rubles. If we count only in February, 113 billion rubles a day are already being spent, which gives an excess of 11 trillion rubles. The extrapolation of non-linear indicators for the whole year for one and a half months should be treated with caution, nevertheless, the trend is obvious. At the beginning of the year, budget expenditures were always restrained, and it is unlikely that only the accelerated advance of contracts by the Ministry of Finance in the current year could have led to such a result. “The situation with the budget, in our opinion, has become the main pro-inflationary risk for the economy. This is also a risk for the OFZ market and the ruble,” states the channel.
Another economic telegram channel, Solid Numbers, believes that it is too early to talk about a dramatic acceleration in spending growth. “In February, 6.2% of annual expenses have been executed so far, while the historical norm for February is 7% - technically, expenses in February are still not higher than the seasonal norm - budget spending has seasonality, and operational data should be monitored at the end of the month,” analysts explain . In January and February, the costs are overstated, because part of the planned costs from the end of last year was transferred to the beginning of this year, the channel believes. According to him, at the end of the year, spending could reach 32–34 trillion rubles instead of the planned 29 trillion.
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WHAT ELSE HAPPENED
- almost 9% on Monday Austrian Raiffeisen Bank International tumbled on news that OFAC, the US Treasury Department's sanctions arm, had sent an inquiry to the bank in connection with Russia and Ukraine. The subsidiary of Raiffeisen in Russia remains one of the few banks operating in the country not subject to sanctions and not disconnected from SWIFT. The Italian UniCredit, which also continues to operate in Russia, has not received such requests.
- The tenth package of EU sanctions may include Ingosstrakh and Tatyana Moskalkova, learned EUobserver . In total, about 60 people will fall under personal sanctions - these are deputy ministers, deputies, senators, prosecutors, military leaders and propagandists. In addition, the new package of sanctions includes 28 legal entities that face an asset freeze in Europe and a ban on doing business there.
- Rosstat estimated the fall in GDP at the end of last year at 2.1%. This is less than estimated by the Central Bank (-2.5%) and predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development (-2.9%).
- Bloomberg estimated the size of the shadow fleet carrying Russian oil. According to Trafigura, it has about 600 tankers, including 400 oil tankers (the rest carry oil products). The estimate of shipowners is somewhat lower: 10-12% of the world's tanker fleet. The total cost of these vessels is estimated at $2.2 billion. The transport efficiency of this fleet is low due to the fact that European sanctions have forced Russia to transport oil through half the world.
- The Central Bank began to take measures against joint mortgage programs of developers and banks. to do this for a long time The regulator has been threatening . Starting May 1, the Central Bank will increase premiums on mortgage loans secured by rights of claim under equity participation agreements in construction. These allowances will ensure that banks accumulate a buffer necessary to cover the risks associated with the difference in prices in the primary and secondary housing markets.