The cost of war in Ukraine. Online March 17

The Bell continues to host an online video dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022.

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21:41 In more than 40 regions of Russia, subpoenas have begun to be distributed again - the military registration and enlistment offices are calling men to "clarify the data" and to "gather". Here we have collected what is known about the distribution of subpoenas at the moment and what lawyers say about it.

21:14 What does the arrest warrant for Putin mean? What is the International Criminal Court that issued it? Why was the warrant issued and how did Russia react to it? We answer these questions here .

19:28 Russian officials began to comment on the news about the warrant for Putin's arrest:

• Dmitry Medvedev accompanied the post about the decision of the International Criminal Court with a toilet paper badge, writing that there was no need to explain where this document should be used.
• Dmitry Peskov repeated the words of the Foreign Ministry that Russia does not recognize the jurisdiction of this court.
• Senator Andrey Klishas called the decision absurd and called for arrest warrants for all judges of the International Criminal Court to be issued in Russia (Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov made the same proposal).
• Deputy Leonid Slutsky proposed to issue a warrant for the arrest of Vladimir Zelensky.

State media, after ignoring the news of Putin's arrest warrant for almost half an hour, are now emphasizing in almost every report on the subject that this is a court "unrecognized" in Russia.

19:00 In recent weeks, Russian companies have flooded their Kazakh partners with requests to help them import necessary goods, writes . Reuters

The Russians are asking Kazakh partners to help deliver products ranging from phones, electronics and bearings to aircraft parts, rare earth metals and even bank card materials, seven agency sources say. Two of them attributed the increase in requests to the fact that Turkey stopped the sanctions transit to Russia. Others - with new Western sanctions.

A Kazakh businessman told Reuters that he was offered $1 million to help transport a truckload of rare earths from Australia.

Some Russian companies have tried to negotiate long-term cooperation in the delivery of sanctioned goods, the sources say.

Last year, deliveries from the European Union to the CIS countries, including Kazakhstan, grew abnormally, noted experts . This is especially true of those goods, the import of which into Russia was prohibited. Their exports from the EU to Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan almost doubled from March to November last year. From this, one can draw an obvious conclusion: a significant part of the increased exports to the CIS countries is redirected to Russia.

18:42 "The decisions of the International Criminal Court have no meaning for our country, including from a legal point of view," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova commented on the news about the warrant for Putin's arrest.

18:35 Since the news about the arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin issued by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, 20 minutes have passed - but the state and "systemic" Russian media still do not notice it. The only exception is Kommersant, which broadcast the news on its Telegram channel. There is nothing about a warrant for Putin's arrest either on RBC , or in the TASS and RIA Novosti agencies . Only 20 minutes later, the news appeared in the most popular and prompt news telegram channel “Before everyone. Well, almost . "

18:17 The International Court of Justice in The Hague issued arrest warrants for Putin, as well as for the arrest of Maria Lvova-Belova, Commissioner for Children's Rights. Both are suspected of "illegal deportation and transfer of children from the occupied regions of Ukraine to the Russian Federation," the court said in a statement .

15:47 The main thing from the press conference of Elvira Nabiullina after the decision of the Central Bank on the rate:

• At the meeting, the option of maintaining and raising the rate was considered, as a result, it was decided to keep the 7.5% rate. The average key rate forecast for 2023 is also kept at 7–9% ( in the release on the rate). for some reason, this figure was not included
• The likelihood of a rate hike in 2023 outweighs the likelihood of a rate cut.
• The level of the neutral rate of the Central Bank will traditionally be reassessed in July (now 5-6%). It will be influenced by the budget factor, the risk premium for the Russian economy and the level of external rates. Most likely the rating will go up.
• The banking crisis in the US and Europe does not affect the Russian financial sector directly, but may affect it indirectly through lower demand for exports and inflation.
• Yesterday's atypical jump of the dollar to 77.5 rubles was a market situation, there are no signs of speculation, but the regulator will still check. Nabiullina confirmed the hypothesis that the anomaly is related to futures contracts in the face of reduced liquidity in the foreign exchange market. The Central Bank will work with the exchange on the design of trades, “including extending the fixing calculation time in order to neutralize such fluctuations.” Demand for the currency rose sharply on March 16, exactly at the time of the expiration of futures for the USD/RUB pair, in which analysts saw signs of manipulation.

14:07 Supervisory Board of Sberbank recommends record dividends for 2022

The Supervisory Board of the largest state-owned bank in Russia recommended the meeting of shareholders (to be held on April 21) to decide on record dividends for 2022 - 565 billion rubles.

In 2022, Sberbank received only 271 billion rubles of net profit, but it did not pay dividends for 2021: a record profit of 1.25 trillion rubles remained undistributed. For 2020, he paid 56% of net profit under IFRS, or 422 billion rubles.

Half of the dividends will be received by the state, which has 50% plus one share. “Our dividends are not only additional financial income for each private shareholder, of which we have 1.5 million people, but also a significant contribution to the budget of the entire state,” German Gref, President of Sberbank, is quoted in the release.

Sberbank quotes by 14:30 Moscow time rose by almost 10%.

13:30 The Central Bank kept the key rate at 7.5%, as all economists expected

Highlights from the release:

• The balance of risks to inflation has not changed significantly. Price growth rates remain moderate, inflation expectations of the population have significantly decreased, but remain at an elevated level. Proinflationary risks are still associated with budget expenditures, worsening terms of foreign trade and the state of the labor market.
• If pro-inflationary risks increase, the Central Bank will assess the feasibility of raising the key rate at the next meetings.
• Taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, annual inflation will be 5-7% in 2023. A drop below 4% in the coming months will be temporary, driven by last year's high base effect.

12:45 VPost writes about additional problems of Russians with payment in the EU with bank cards received in third countries.

The fact that car rental companies began to require Russians to confirm the right to residency in the country that issued the card was told by three people - with cards of Kazakhstan, Armenia and Belarus. In the latter case, they managed to pay the rent by showing an article stating that Russia and Belarus are part of a union state. All three cases occurred in March.

In 2022, the countries of "card tourism" have dramatically increased the issuance of payment cards. However, "friendly" countries gradually covered card tourism.

12:03 Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu presented the Su-27 pilots for state awards, whose actions caused the fall of the American reconnaissance drone MQ-9 Reaper in the Black Sea on March 14.

In the release, the Ministry of Defense insists on the version that the drone fell due to "sharp maneuvering" and not contact with the fighter. On the eve of the US Air Force released a video of the entry of the Russian Su-27 on a drone. The picture corresponds to the American version of what happened - the dumping of fuel and the passage of a fighter within a couple of meters from the drone.

According to pro-military channels, the crash site of the MQ-9 is located quite far - 260 km - from the coast of Crimea, and the wreckage of the drone lies at a depth of 900 meters. A group of ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is working on the spot, the Kommuna ship-lifting barge has come to it.

11:04 Chinese President Xi Jinping will arrive in Moscow on Monday - the Kremlin announced the dates of the official visit on March 20-22.

The main thing for the night and morning:

• The state-owned NAMI, which took over the assets of Nissan and Renault that left Russia, can also receive the St. Petersburg plant of Toyota. The question is, to whom the enterprise will go to later - it is possible that this is the sanctions Almaz-Antey, which promises E-Neva electric vehicles to the domestic market.
• Superjet aircraft, which were forced to become the main ones for domestic airlines when flying to neighboring countries, found a sanction problem: spark plugs for engines of the American Unison Industries. A domestic analogue is promised by the end of the year, and until then, companies will have to distribute candles by the piece and limit Superjet flying.
• The US financial authorities developed a rescue plan for First Republic Bank, which was considered the next victim of the banking crisis. Eleven of the country's largest banks will place $30 billion on his deposits, with the four JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo giving $5 billion each. This will give time to work out strategic options, including a sale.
• MindGeek, the parent company of Pornhub, the largest porn resource, has been bought by Ethical Capital Partners, a Canadian investment fund. The fund was formed only last year, its head is listed as an entrepreneur from Ottawa, Rocco Meliambro, who was involved in recreational marijuana. Pornhub is the twelfth most visited site in the world, but the business has never recovered from the underage video scandal three years ago.
• TikTok owner Chinese company ByteDance has begun talks to sell the app after the U.S. administration threatened to ban it again, like under President Trump, writes New York Post . The reason is the same - the threat to the personal data of Americans.

Read online for March 16 here .