Counteroffensive not happening? Ukrainian “counterstrike” Q&A

Dmitriev points out that during the first week of the counteroffensive (from June 4 to 11), according to Ukrainian reports, the number of destroyed multiple rocket launchers (MRLs), artillery pieces, and air defense assets has increased two to three times. An example (although it is unclear how representative it is) is the documented destruction of a battery of Russian self-propelled artillery systems “Msta-S” (presumably by HIMARS or M270 MLRS missiles). According to Russian sources, Ukrainian artillery has an advantage over the Russian forces in terms of accuracy and, primarily, range, allowing them to win counter-battery duels.

Both sides are seeking to disrupt logistics and troop movements of the enemy through remote mining of frontline roads and the immediate line of contact. It seems to be yielding certain results: Ukrainian sources claim that a Russian truck carrying ammunition detonated on one of these mines. However, the remote mining systems themselves are also vulnerable, for example, to drone kamikaze attacks.

Israeli military expert David Gendelman points out that the Russian forces are showing much better resilience in terms of combat command compared to how they acted during the Ukrainian offensive near Kharkiv last autumn.

The main factor that will determine the outcome of the operation is the troops' resilience under fire and the resilience of combat command. It was precisely this that the Russian forces lost on the Kharkiv front, resulting in their retreat. At this stage, the Russians are demonstrating much better performance in this regard than before, which is the main reason why the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not achieved greater success thus far. Further developments will depend on the quantity and pace of deployment of additional reserves and the accumulation of casualties in personnel and equipment on both sides.

As far as one can judge, Ukrainian forces are currently not utilizing aviation on the southern front. However, the Russian side is employing glide bombs and conducting strikes with Ka-52 helicopters.

During the initial stages of the counteroffensive, the Russian Aerospace Forces gained notoriety for destroying tractors and combine harvesters instead of Leopard tanks, although they likely have caused significant damage to actual military vehicles.

Assessing the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces against Russian attack helicopters is difficult. The Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported the destruction of five Ka-52 attack helicopters since June 16, but there is a lack of independent confirmation regarding the loss of even a single helicopter. Only one helicopter's tail assembly damage is confirmed, as it managed to return to base for repairs.

The deployment of Ukrainian engineering vehicles designed to create pathways through minefields proved to be unsuccessful. Three Finnish Leopard 2R mine-clearing machines and one German engineering vehicle, Wisent 1, were lost. On the other hand, it appears that the Ukrainians are effectively utilizing mine-clearing systems such as the Soviet UR-77 and American M58, as evidenced by visible detonation traces on satellite imagery, even at lower resolutions.

Yet, it is indisputable that the Ukrainian Armed Forces currently hold the initiative, while Russian forces remain in a defensive stance and show no signs of launching any substantial counterattacks on this front (although there have been reports of attempts to regain initiative in the Kupyansk direction in the eastern part of the Kharkiv region).

Thus, it is premature to make conclusions about the success of the counteroffensive. At present, Ukrainian forces have achieved less than anticipated, while the Russian side has demonstrated a performance that is not as disappointing as predicted by independent observers.