Ukraine grinds Russian troops

But why is there still no success at the front? Does Russia defend well?

For a month and a half of the counterattack, Ukraine was able to return the area of ​​15 times less than a week of autumn breakthrough in the Kharkov region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (Armed Forces) lost the effect of surprise, but received modern Western weapons. Russia partially took into account previous errors and strengthened the defense - minefields became a real headache for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, Ukraine already achieves local successes that can develop into something more. The Armed Forces were equal to the number of tanks with Russia, and in the effectiveness of artillery they even begin to exceed. Will local victories develop into large -scale and what interferes with the breakthrough of Ukraine? “Cold” was looking for answers to these questions in a conversation with military analyst Kirill Mikhailov and the former Ukrainian military, Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reserve Roman Svitan.

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Why is the counterattack of Ukraine so slowly?

Ukraine lost the factor of surprise, which she had during the attack in the Kharkiv region, Kirill Mikhailov notes. “It did not work [quickly attack] because of the minefields, a large number of reserves and good fortifications that the Russian military managed to build,” he says.

Roman Svitan does not at all consider the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine slow. According to him, in the absence of aviation, which the Western partners have not yet been set by Ukraine, promotion by 100-200 meters a day or a couple of kilometers a week is the optimal speed. “If there was air support, we could pass minefields in 1.5–2 weeks. Without aviation, this stage, of course, will take more time, says Svatan. - In addition, the Armed Forces seeks to minimize its losses: both human and loss of technology. Therefore, no one is eager for battle, but slow preparatory measures are being held for further advancement. ”

The current speed of advancement of the Armed Forces of Armed Forces explains the drawback of the cleansing systems. “We received only one fifth from everything that we requested for mine clearance. We are still waiting for the main supplies, but so far we have to work with what is, and the sappers are forced to mine huge fields manually. ” Kirill Mikhailov notes that overcoming minefields is also complicated by the fact that Russians use helicopters with anti -tank missiles, controlled air bombs with a universal planning and correction module - all this slows down the promotion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“It is important now to look not even at the promotion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, not at the number of conquered territories, but how the Russian army reacts to this: what is happening there with artillery and with the resistance of the Russian combat spirit,” Mikhailov believes. - Sooner or later, their strength should end. Especially if instead of the [ detached from the post of general] Popov will come to the protege Gerasimov and instead of defense will drive the army on the attack, [for which the Russian troops are not ready now]. "

The main task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is now different, Mikhailov believes: to exhaust the Russian troops and reserves to such a state that they are not able to keep the defense. At the same time, according to his assessment, Ukrainians are ready to maintain the current level of pressure for a long time: this is facilitated by superiority in manpower, equipment and ammunition. “There are still less than half the forces prepared by Ukraine for a counterattack,” says Mikhailov. According to Svitan, at the current stage of the offensive, only 20-30% of all departments that were trained and preparation are involved.

Why did Ukraine still have not entered into battle all the prepared brigades?

Experts explain this to the conceptual approach of the Armed Forces to plan and implement the offensive. “According to the Soviet military doctrine, the offensive should be echeloned: the first echelon makes a breakthrough, and then the second echelon enters into battle - more fresh, full forces of the troops, which, after the breakthrough of the defense, will be able to develop success,” Mikhailov explains. - The situation when the second echelon was not, we saw during the Russian assault on Bakhmut. They stated that the city was taken, but there was no forces that would further expand the captured territory, so now the APU is conquering Bakhmut back. ”

I agree with Mikhailov and Svatan: he also believes that the army must have strategic reserves when the attack entered the battle only after the main defense line was broken. “In addition, excessive concentration of forces can cause fire on the Russian side,” says Mikhailov. “Therefore, Ukrainians have now chosen tactics to act in small groups of several dozen people.”

What is the essence of Ukrainian tactics?

“This is a local battle for exhaustion. In small groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, fields are cleared, their artillery is exposed in forest belts and in the counter -battery struggle they gradually destroy the artillery of Russians. The battle goes literally for every position, for every landing, ”Mikhailov explains. - This process will clearly be long. But we already see complaints from the Russian side about the lack of ammunition and a vulnerable position in the counter -battery struggle. General Popov also talked about this. "

About the counter -battery struggle

For the effective conduct of counter -battery struggle, it is necessary to quickly fix the enemy artillery positions and promptly hit it. The Russian side, according to Mikhailov, has significant problems with this at once for several reasons:

1. There are few counter -battery radars. After a year and a half of full -scale invasion, they became much less than at the beginning. In addition, they are the most tasty goal for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

2. Management and connection problem. After the shooting of artillery from Ukraine, Russians additionally send reconnaissance drones to establish accurate coordinates (this is necessary due to lack of ammunition, Russians can no longer cover entire squares on the map). Only after that, the data is sent to the command post, which gives the task of the beginning of the counter -battery fire.

All this can work on condition of well -established connection and effective management, but the Russian army does not differ.

The absence of modern artillery installations that can work at the required distance. The Russian artillery park is not distinguished by a range or accuracy, and when it is necessary to hit such a small object as the Ukrainian artillery gun, the Russians do badly.

“Ukrainian artillery guns set by the West can shoot at a distance of 30 km, and Russian mainly only 20 km. Therefore, in order to defeat the enemy, the Russians are forced to go directly to the front line, where they become especially vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery and Kamikadze drones, ”says Mikhailov. According to the calculations of the Cold based on Oryx data, the artillery losses of Russia from June 1 surpassed Ukrainian more than 2.5 times: 79 versus 30.

Roman Svitan indicates another military task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is not directly related to the operational promotion and liberation of land. “The task of the aggressor army is the seizure of territories, they measure success with square kilometers. The defending army has a different task - the destruction of the invader’s army, ”Svitan explains. - The Armed Forces may not move anywhere and stand still, destroying the enemy’s army. At that moment, when we destroy the last soldier, all our lands will be automatically free. If we assess the situation from this point of view, then the Armed Forces performs the task very successfully, you just need to look at the news not about the liberated territories, but about the number of dead military and destroyed equipment. ”

The painstaking work on the destruction of the Russian army goes every day, the Svatan continues. Daily losses-about 500 murdered Russians, three-seven tanks, up to 20 trunks of Russian artillery, up to 20 military armored vehicles. “We also lose trunks, and tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles. But we have practically unlimited, because 53 countries help us, and Russia has a supply of equipment and ammunition sooner or later, ”says Svatan.

What are the advantages of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and which ones have the Russian army?

“Ukraine has been fighting since 2014, that is, for the tenth year, and the Russians have completely turned on only a year and a half ago. The “graters” in the Army by the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already behind, the backbone of the Office has long been created and verified for years [unlike the Russian army, where the constant rotation of the generals is observed], ”Svitan notes. - But the most important advantage of Ukraine is that we protect our land from the aggressor, we have an undeniable moral superiority in this war. Russian soldiers have no internal calls to die for something, unlike Ukrainian. In addition, the whole world helps us, and no one for the Russians. The technique that Ukraine is now crossing is fully consistent with NATO standards: it is more precise, further, more borely. ”

“The Russians still retain the advantage in rocket artillery and in the rocket systems of salvo. They have more missiles, ”says Mikhailov. “But Ukraine managed to achieve a significant advantage in the receiver.” In addition, the artillery of the Russian side “degrades”, Mikhailov notes: they have to get tools that were used during the Second World War. This technique shoots worse than NATO weapons: not so far and not so accurate.

According to Mikhailov, the main serious weapon of Russians against Ukrainian artillery is Lancet drones. But Russia has a limited amount. “In addition, in order for Lanzet to get somewhere, you must first find the goal. To do this, Russians have to fly deep into Ukrainian positions with intelligence drones, for whom this often ends poorly, ”adds Mikhailov.

What other problems do the Russian army have?

There are many of them. One of the problems is the lack of rotation of the military. Tired of fighting the military cannot go on vacation, because they have no one to replace them on the battlefield. “The Armed Forces can continue the pressure on the Russians for several months, then they can change the trains, and the rested military can continue for a long time at the same pace. The Russians have nowhere to take new soldiers, ”says Mikhailov.

In addition, the Russians still have not learned to deal with Himars: “If you can leave during the artillery shelling after the first“ shooting ”shot or, if a combat vehicle is hit, the crew may run away, then Himars struck the goals from the first hit,” Mikhailov explains.

“Sooner or later, the APU blows to Russian artillery should give a result. In addition, at some point, the quality of preparation of crews will begin to fall. There are military people who wore a year, and there are those who have only once shown how to bring a sight and how to shoot. And they do not know how to change their positions, how to equip them, how to protect them from Ukrainian artillery. At some point, this should affect the battlefield, ”Mikhailov believes.

Another factor, which, in his opinion, can affect the decisions of Russian generals are biased figures for the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

If Konashenkov and Putin say that almost all the tanks that were set up by the West have already been destroyed, then they have everything under control: it is worth holding out for another couple of weeks, and the counterattack will end. “And those who voiced problems and say that not everyone is so good is sent to Syria at best, and at worst-to the basement of increased comfort (this refers to reports about the transfer of Major General Popov and rumors about the equipment of the secret insulator for generals in the basement of the Moscow Court.-Approx.“ Cold ” ),” says Mikhailov.

In what areas of the Armed Forces are a breakthrough prepared?

Of the 10 possible directions that the Armed Forces previously considered as possible for a breakthrough, three were selected, Roman Svitan believes.

1. Orekhovo - Tokmak. This is the main direction in which the Ukrainian army plans to break through to the Azov coast and cut off the ground corridor from Rostov-on-Don. Svatan notes that this is the most convenient bridgehead for grinding Russian troops: the Armed Forces may not even move there, but because of a convenient position they will destroy more and more Russian military.
2. From the time ledge towards Mariupol or Berdyansk: where exactly the APU will go, the Ukrainian command will decide. According to the expert, in this direction the Ukrainian army has already passed seven to eight kilometers.
3. From the Dnieper towards Armyansk (Crimea). Svitan claims that now several reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been fixed on the left bank of the Dnieper: they fulfill the tasks of adjusting artillery fire and prepare bridgeheads for future landing or crossing the river by the military. The consequences of the breakthrough of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station made the task of protecting the left bank for Russians almost impossible, the Svatan believes: “There is either water or clay - it does not work there. The Ukrainian army covers the Russians on the left bank with artillery fire, and the Russians have nowhere to hide or gain a foothold. ”

Does Russia prepare its own offensive in the Liman direction?

In mid-July, the representative of the eastern Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in mid-July, stated that more than 100 thousand Russian soldiers, more than 900 tanks, more than 550 artillery systems and 370 rocket systems were concentrated in the Liman-Kuyansky direction.

Military analysts agreed that from Russia this is just a maneuver, an attempt to distract the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces from those areas where they perform offensive actions, and attract them to themselves. “When they say that a group of 100 thousand is concentrated in the direction, you need to understand that this includes the first, second and third line of defense, the forces of the second echelon, rear parts and so on. This does not mean that a hundred thousandth group will be able to simultaneously go to a large -scale offensive, ”says Mikhailov.

I agree with Mikhailov and Svatan: he claims that the same group has been in the Liman direction for several months in a row. “They stomp there and can’t do anything, they will stomp further, no threat from them comes. Firstly, Russian troops are not ready to perform large-scale offensive operations: there is simply no one to lead, and the troops themselves are not trained for a large-scale offensive. Secondly, there is a very marshy area, it is impossible to perform a large-scale offensive there, ”says Svitan.

In addition, the only Russian forces capable of effectively advance are Wagner PMC fighters who have left the front for a month. “Russian regular forces and volunteers are not able to advance longly, they have neither skills nor discipline provided by the executions of deserters that Wagnerians had,” Mikhailov believes.

How will the separation of the Crimean bridge affect the development of attack?

The undermining of the car part of the Crimean bridge on July 17 will practically not affect Russian logistics. According to the sweat, through the motorway is transferred to 15% of the supply. Both experts are sure that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to shell the Crimean bridge until they completely disable it, including the railway branch.

“If Ukraine can block the bottle neck [Crimean bridge], then [on the battlefield] everything will go at a different pace. The Russians will begin to end ammunition, they will have to be taken by road through tourist flows in the occupied Donetsk and Zaporizhzhya regions, ”says Mikhailov. “This will require more transport, time and people engaged in security, which will still have to be taken out somewhere.”

How long will the APU counter will last?

Roman Svitan is sure that by the beginning of autumn the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to enter the Crimea. “The issue of access to Crimea is the release of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces to Armyansk, and after crossing the Dnieper, the military will be able to reach him on the left bank in a couple of weeks. The space around Armyansk is even like the surface of the table, everything is shot there, so it will be very difficult for the Russian troops to stay there, ”says Svitan. - In addition, we have Himars who even get there now. By the end of August, we will already approach Armyansk. ”

Svitan believes that even in a better situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military operations will last another minimum of a year. “If we have planes right tomorrow, then we will be able to defeat the entire Russian army in three months. But then it will be necessary to chase small groups and demilitarize the regions bordering Ukraine, ”says the Svitan.

Kirill Mikhailov is also inclined to the fact that the fighting will last a long time. He refrains from accurate forecasts, but believes that even the current stage of battles can last several months until the Russians begin to end with reserves.