The weak powerful of this world. Vladimir Milov about why you should not put the oligarchs on the lifting of sanctions

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Recent events-the lifting of sanctions from Oleg Tinkov, introducing to the American sanctions list of Mikhail Friedman and his partners on Alfa Group, the scandal around the founder of Yandex Arkady Volozha, the threat of deprivation of Latvian citizenship of Alfa Bank Peter Aven-stirred a new wave of discussion on how to stimulate the split of the Putinsky Elite. Should they offer them a “carrot” in the form of relocation of sanctions in response to some actions against Putin? What actions will be enough? Does all this discussion make the meaning in general?

The author of these lines worked for six years in the civil service and personally a sign of about a half of the Russian Forbes list, as well as with a large number of existing officials. It seems that it is worthwhile to state a realistic view of this problem that goes beyond abstract reasoning. The situation here is much more complicated than many.

First of all, the term "split of the elites" is largely artificial, descriptive. Political scientists formulated it in fact - during the violent historical events, some of the elites refused to obey the ruler, contributing to the radical political changes in a particular country. But to predict, and even more to provoke the “split of the elites”, I dare to say, no one succeeded. All existing stories show that this is an extremely uncontrollable and poorly predicted process, and the elites have strong incentives to maintain the loyalty of power until the very last moment (we will talk about them a little later). None of the specialists in the Soviet Union could imagine a split in the leadership of the CPSU, which had happened since 1985 - many predictors of the collapse of the USSR, from Andrei Amalrik to Helen Carrer d'ankoss, called completely different causes of the possible collapse of the Soviet Union than those that later happened in reality. No one predicted the overthrow of Nikolai Ceausescu by the leadership of the Romanian Communist Party in December 1989 and so on.

Therefore, when we hear conversations that “political changes are impossible without the split of the elites,” we must understand that an attempt to artificially cause a split in the elites - as a thunderstorm or earthquake is an unsuccessful approach that is not based on the actual analysis of the situation and historical experience. Our own historical experience of the late 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s suggests that, firstly, the split of the elites was as unprotected as possible, and secondly, the elites in fact clung to the nomenclature positions to the last and became in some more or less radical position only at the last moment, when the changes became inevitable under the influence of completely different, not elite forces.

An attempt to artificially cause an elite split - like a thunderstorm or earthquake - this is an unsuccessful approach

Why are they silent?

Here are the two most striking examples. Everyone knows that the movement against the CPSU was headed by Boris Yeltsin, who eventually became the leader of the change. However, today many forgot that after the resignation and disgrace in the fall of 1987, Yeltsin asked the 19th Party Conference of the CPSU on political rehabilitation and dared only when the mass lower movement against the Communist Party gained powerful strength. When in August 1991 there was a coup of conservatives, advisers to Gorbachev Primakov and Bakatin issued a statement condemning a coup, but ... only on the second half of the third day of the putsch, on August 21, when the failure of the Putcheists became obvious to everyone, and they flew to surrender to Gorbachev in Foros.

We see something similar now. From the beginning of the Putin's full -scale invasion of Ukraine, a year and a half has passed, but about the same thing has happened. Almost 100% of officials and large businessmen are silent; The statements that sounded against the war for the most part are vested and tooth; The number of those who opposed the war openly - a few and they play secondary roles; Even many of those who left are silent. Even Arkady Volozh, who seemed to make a sharp condemnation of the war after the public pressure campaign, did not say a word-the media only published a certain text transmitted by his press service. Maybe it could not.

Why are they so afraid?

First - they do not see themselves outside the system. The author of these lines at one time went through an important experience in leaving the state -owned state debt “to nowhere” - especially in the field of criticism of the regime. This is very painful, from the point of view of your career you lose everything and acquire new serious risks - including life. More than twenty years have passed since then, and the situation has sharply worsened-the independent private sector of the economy has been eliminated de facto, there is nowhere to find yourself outside the state, and political opponents and public critics of the regime are literally killed.

Leaving the system from the point of view of a career you lose everything and acquire new serious risks - including life

Theoretically, one can imagine the opportunity to get in the West, but it must be understood that all these people in reality do not own the technologies of existence and earnings in the legal and competitive Western environment. Even the “advanced” and long -leaving businessmen such as Pavel Durov or Mikhail Kokorich faced serious problems with the same American authorities because they did not master the skills of working in the US regulatory framework. What can we say about much more primitive characters, whose business strategy does not go beyond the principles of "too the former Soviet plant" or "solve the issue of obtaining public services through Putin's friends."

Further, the risk of persecution in the West is high. All these figures were completely dug into the cannon, and the “composition” in case of persecution is available for everyone. So that they are not afraid to move to the West, reinforced concrete guarantees for refusal to persecute are needed. The Russian nomenclature generally evaluates the reliability of such guarantees as low, and even if some officials provide them with such guarantees, this can always be revised under the pressure of the opposition, independent courts and prosecutors, the public. What can I say-the Russian elite openly discusses the coming to power in the United States in 2024 of the Outnoot Republicans Donald Trump or Ron Landamin, who can easily give them back to Putin in exchange for something. They can give out, but they may not, but according to the signals coming from the Russian nomenclature - they are terribly afraid of such a scenario and consider it realistic.

The next moment is fear for those close associates who will remain in Russia. Each significant figure (businessman or official) has a large group of close associates, which is physically impossible to simply take and remove from the country. These are relatives, elderly and usually not very healthy parents, mistresses, children from various marriages, various business partners on various projects, loyal managers or employees of their enterprises, just some people who are dear to them. For any large figure, the number of such people is measured in dozens. The FSB leads the folder for every significant figure in the Russian elite and knows who to crush from the nearby circle, if the defendant of the folder “goes to the wrong steppe” and disagree from Putin - or worse, will help Ukraine and Western governments.

The FSB leads the folder for every significant figure in the Russian elite and knows who to press from the nearby circle if the defendant of the folder “goes to the wrong steppe”

I had many cases where this was manifested, but probably the situation was the most striking when in 2017 I invited Navalny Live of one famous and major businessman, who was put on the wanted list just a few months before, went to London and spoke with a number of bright blogs that sharply criticize the Russian government. I had stupidity to publicly announce the broadcast with him, although before that I warned him in detail about risks. Immediately after the announcement, he called me and refused to speak, saying briefly: “I had people in Russia, they threatened to put pressure on them if I came to the Navalny channel” (it was during the popular and gaining momentum of the Navalny 2018 presidential campaign).

There are many such stories, and it is important to understand that the representatives of the Putin elite are “nursed” in Russia in a much greater circle of positions than many of those who believe that they can cause some kind of spells or signed letters to cause a certain “split of the elites”. No, guys, if you put all these things on different bowls of weights, then the load of attachment to Russia and the Putin system will be incomparably more significant. Therefore, they are silent.

I'm not talking about such trifles - or not at all trifles - as the lack of a light transport path for emigration to the West. Now you can’t just take and buy a ticket for the United Airlines Domodedovo - Washington (oh, there were such times) - any attempts to really leave and, if suspicion of desire to move to the other side (preliminary disposal of assets and closing affairs), is suppressed. In Dubai or Turkey, you will be easily reached and extradited if necessary.

Any attempts to really leave will be tracked and, if suspicion of the desire to move to the other side, suppressed

Well, the last. Here I can be accused of “radicalism”, “torture”, “misunderstanding the importance of the transition of part of the elites to the side of the good”, but the fact is that all these people have no timely in the system until 2022. They understood everything perfectly well, they have an order of magnitude more information about what is happening than you. If they chose to stay, this with a probability of 100% means that they are extremely cynical people who were ready to make a business in a system built on the blood. They have no moral limiters on this subject, the only thing that scares them now is that Putin leads the entire system to disaster (but here they are slowed down by all those factors that were listed above). They have no ideological motivation to switch to the side of the West. They look west in the same way as Putin, and their main motivation is unlimited cynicism. Therefore, many of you are surprising: how can one be the creator of the largest Russian IT company and manage it for more than a quarter of a century, and then, without blinking an eye, to present to the Israeli businessman "born in Kazakhstan." And so - you just have a bad idea of ​​these people, listen to better those who really know them.

It is possible to achieve a split of the elites

What are the conclusions from this whole situation? Is it really impossible to achieve the split of the Putin elites? It is possible-but only if socio-economic problems will intensify under international pressure if public opinion changes, and the country will begin to oppose the authorities. Then the "these" will move. Now they are evaluating the situation so that the Putin system can withstand, which means that it makes sense to do nothing. In addition, a huge number of naive people of anti -Putin and anti -war views appear, which can simply be diluted to letters about lifting sanctions and other reasoning "we need oligarchs on our side." If there is such a stupid request for the “split of the elites”, then why not first try to leave the opposition on the back of the opposition than to start a really dangerous game against Putin, risking losing everything and even being killed?

They assess the situation so that the Putin system can withstand, which means that it makes sense to do nothing

What actions of Putin’s officials and oligarchs can really count as a transition to the “side of good”?

Support for Ukraine, assistance to the West and the Russian opposition (any option from this, if, for example, you do not like the opposition) on a scale comparable to the benefit obtained in past years from participating in the Putin system . The post on Instagram or even more so the “letter transferred to journalists” (instead of direct speech) - even close is not enough and is not considered.

The theme of the “mechanism for the exit of oligarchs and officials from sanctions” is extremely counterproductive and should immediately stop being discussed. So far, it is only stimulating nothing to do, to dilute the most naive part of the opposition to support, to achieve the relief of sanctions and to quietly lie down under the snag, avoiding responsibility. And the responsibility is huge-everything is well known about the same Yandex and its role in the Putin system, and Tinkoff-Bank played a huge role of the shock absorber for the middle class skeptical to the authorities: you see, we have a large high-tech private bank, which means that everything is not so bad. Such an analogue of Ksenia Sobchak in the financial sector. By the way, everything was fine with the FSB there - I dream that Oleg Tinkov’s interviewers would not have been trapped his personal version of events, but directly asked him what the “first department” was doing at his bank and whether the bank answered the FSB’s requests regarding “politically unreliable” customers.

Let them do something first-only then can you start a conversation about the "way out of the sanctions." You walked too well at this long -term Putin party to demand advances - no one owes you anything here. The main effective message for officials and oligarchs - you will be beaten by sanctions and other ways, it will not be possible to beat it and for a long time, and you will not be able to hide, only the transition to the other side can save you. They understand this language very well. The soft-stroke discussion of the “removal of sanctions” and the enthusiastic throwing with caps in the first oncoming, who wrote the “anti-war post” who did not have the consequences or, worse, simply “transmitting text in the media”, only stimulate them and further breed an opposition party to lobbying them out of sanctions. As shown by the past year and a half, it is an order of magnitude easier, cheaper and more risker than to really do something painful to Putin.

With all this tabor, it is tougher. They lined up under Putin, because they understand his style and his language well. If you want to get something from them, you need to speak this language with them. A demonstration of their own beautiful -hearted naivety in a conversation with these cynical people is as counter -productive as possible. And stop listening to the arguments of political scientists about the "split of the elites." If a professor of biology can describe the lifestyle of a wild bear well - this does not mean that he will not immediately die from a heart attack, facing this bear in the forest. The split of the elites are unpredictable and occurs only at the very last moment, when the elites have no other chances. We must not leave them these chances. The sanctions, support of Ukraine, a change in public opinion in Russia - all this will bring such a situation and the collapse of the system. Flying out with predatory, cynical and ready to beat you oligarchs in a second - no.

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