‘It was very likely that he’d be killed’

Wagner Group expert Denis Korotkov explains what will happen to Wagner Group without Prigozhin

On the evening of August 23, Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin’s private plane crashed in Russia’s Tver region, northwest of Moscow. Ten people were killed in the crash, three of them members of the plane’s crew. According to Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, the passenger list included both Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin. The official cause of the incident is still unknown. Meduza spoke to journalist Denis Korotkov, who has covered Prigozhin and Wagner Group for many years, about what made the Wagner founder’s death possible and what will become of his mercenaries now.

Do you think the plane was shot down or blown up from the inside?

I’m not an aviation accident specialist, and I’m reluctant to draw conclusions from the few photos that have appeared in the public domain. Based on the available information, we can assume that the plane exploded at a high altitude. Either there was an explosion on board, or it was hit with an anti-aircraft missile. The only thing I can say is that you need a pretty decent anti-aircraft missile complex to shoot down a plane at that altitude.

Why did Prigozhin’s personal security fail?

If we’re talking about a missile, personal security can’t do anything about it. As for the possibility that someone got explosives on board, I don’t know how security works aboard the jet Mr. Prigozhin flew on. But you don’t need a huge amount of explosives to bring down a plane, especially such a small jet.

Do you know if Prigozhin took any extra security measures in the past two months following his aborted rebellion?

How seriously Prigozhin took his own security is an open question. When he wasn’t in the trenches, he was always hanging out close to the front. He visited various dangerous parts of the world. He wasn’t a coward or paranoid. It’s possible that he overestimated the guarantees of his own safety.

Do you think that Andrey Troshev, whom Putin proposed as the new Wagner boss, will take control of Prigozhin’s mercenaries?

I think there are a fair number of people who want to get involved [in running Wagner Group]. It’s possible the authorities will decide to split up the group to various places, or maybe they’ll give it whole to some individual. But in any case, it won’t be Troshev.

Troshev might be installed for show, but the head of any business needs to be a manager who can direct everything, from finances to organization and politics. We don’t know who that might be. I don’t believe it will be possible to maintain the Wagner structure.

That group could exist only under Prigozhin’s leadership as part of his financial empire. Now, it will either cease to exist or it will devolve into one or several shady organizations, which, as usual, will be plundered. I don’t expect the old level of independence for the private military company [to continue].

What will happen to Wagner Group’s missions in Africa?

Sudan, the Central African Republic, Mali, and Mozambique each have a different history with Wagner Group. They were united in large part only by the personality of Mr. Prigozhin. So it won’t work just to take the contracts and rewrite them — the processes are a bit more complicated.

In any case, I don’t think that everything will stay the same, just with a different figure leading. Financing, logistics, freedom to make decisions, and leadership hierarchy will all totally change. And then, as I said, it will get plundered and fall apart.

What will happen to fighters currently employed by Wagner Group?

People who are at home relaxing will be able to think about what to do next. People in Belarus — we’ll see. I think they’ll split up and go home soon unless Lukashenko finds some use for them. But I seriously doubt he will — there isn’t anything for them to do there or anything to pay them. Those who are in Africa will continue working for some time just due to inertia. If a decision is made to re-enlist them, they’ll be re-enlisted, and then they’ll scatter or be gradually killed off there.

If those projects don’t continue, they’ll be evacuated. However, there are real logistical issues. If we assume the list of those killed [on board] the flight is accurate, that means the decisionmaker [Prigozhin] has died, and the main organizer of finances and logistics, Valery Chekalov, has also died. The death of Mr. Utkin doesn’t play a big role, but it’s still a blow in terms of the general mess.

Why doesn’t Uktin’s death play a big role?

He was just one commander — they’ll install another one. He had trained soldiers who can take over his position.

Like who?

Like Alexander Kuznetsov, the commander of the assault troops. Or Anton Yelizarov. There are three or four assault troop commanders who could, theoretically, take Utkin’s place.

You said that the person who was responsible for the financial component of Wagner Group was killed. Will that affect payments to active fighters?

Of course. That’s one of the problems with an unincorporated private military company. All its obligations exist only informally. If the relatives of a deceased Wagner fighter haven’t received payments, it’s not guaranteed that they ever will. It’s the same with wounded fighters and with those who are now finishing missions in Africa.

Their money was guaranteed by Prigozhin personally. Their salaries came in the form of bags of cash distributed under the table. Prigozhin guaranteed them and was interested in fulfilling his obligations. And he did. But who’s interested in that now?

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Do you think these events could cause a schism in the army?

No. Much more serious contradictions than Prigozhin’s murder currently stress the army. Soldiers worry about much more serious problems than Prigozhin’s fate. There are logistical failures, failures with combat training and combat itself, shortages of basic necessities, and more complex problems with troop rotations. So there may be a schism in the army, but Prigozhin’s death won’t be the cause or even an excuse.

Did you, personally, believe that Prigozhin would be killed after his failed rebellion?

It was very likely that he would be killed. Where and when were not obvious. The pointedness of the method is surprising. The prevailing opinion is that Vladimir Putin killed him, regardless of the political affiliations. Not personally, but still. And then, for example, the flight attendant on board had nothing to do with anything. If Prigozhin had been on a regular flight, would they have resorted to shooting down the whole plane?