“Despite limiting citizens’ rights, Lukashenko's decree does not automatically provide grounds for protection for those Belarusians who live abroad but aren't involved in civil activism. If a Belarusian approaches his passport expiration date and refuses to go to Minsk, they could be asked: why do you think you might be prosecuted? What makes it impossible for you to return and have your papers issued in Belarus? It's not about the decree itself; it's about your history with the state. Relevant authorities will study your rap sheet: prosecution, repression, any activities that may theoretically result in criminal liability. Over the last three years, Poland and Lithuania have had extensive experience processing such cases. Latvia also has an idea of how to handle Belarusians. The further west you go, the more complicated it gets: the Czech Republic has much more complex procedures in place than Lithuania or Poland. Speaking of Germany or France, immigrants face even more challenges.
But the anti-record belongs to Sweden: despite dealing with relatively few Belarusian refugees, Sweden rejects many applications, including from those with a documented history of participating in protests.
Our record has a lot of similar repression cases: someone who has lived in the West for a decade, having left long before the protests of 2020, arrives in Belarus and suddenly gets a criminal record. It happens because people’s perception changes. Living in a free European society and state, you don't keep track of your online comments, likes, subscriptions, or statements. These are the everyday facts of every European's life. You may not even remember doing any of the above and may set out for Belarus thinking you’re in the clear. You may not even follow domestic developments. Many unsubscribe from news channels because 'they're toxic' and 'I’m paying my therapist enough as it is.' And then: 'I never thought I was in trouble, but getting a new passport can now cost me eight years in jail.'
If there's even a remote possibility that you could get locked up for three, five, or eight years, you may want to reconsider the importance of a passport, a power of attorney, or an apartment. Today's government structures work in mysterious ways when it comes to persecuting activists. Sometimes they pick a random victim as a means of intimidating a particular category of people. All high-profile cases that enjoy media coverage attract public attention, as was the case with the Lithuanian film with non-blurred faces.