Aliens among their own. Why are the inhabitants of the gas sector not expected anywhere in the Arab world

The resettlement of civilians of the Gaza sector to the Arab countries of the Middle East could significantly reduce the number of victims among the civilians in the current confrontation of Israel with the Hamas terrorist group. However, old grievances, economic considerations and anti -Israeli sentiments prevent the rulers of these countries to accept Palestinian refugees. As a result, two million people were held hostage by terrorists.

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Content

• Egypt: the economy will not withstand hundreds of thousands of refugees

• Jordan: fears the penetration of terrorists along with refugees

• Syria: "Palestinians must build their power on their land"

• Lebanon: poor country balancing on the verge of retraction into war

Egypt: the economy will not withstand hundreds of thousands of refugees

“You hold a guard dog on a chain in the yard, and not in your bedroom. Because she should threaten your enemies, not your children. For our neighbors, we are evil dogs that should be at Israel, and not in their homes, ”the driver of the Egyptians figuratively explained the driver of the Rafach and let refugees from the gas sector to their territory.

It was 2012, in the midst of the Operation Cloud Pillar, during which the Israeli army set itself the task of destroying the Khamas missiles and thereby stopping the constant shelling of the cities of Israel. Then there were without the entry of Israeli troops into gas - targets were destroyed using aviation and controlled missiles - however, the density of fire and destruction was so great that thousands of residents of the region, including Mahmud on his old Toyota, decided to leave their homes and get out to the neighboring Egypt. But Cairo never gave them permission to cross the border. As a gesture of goodwill in Egypt, only a few ambulance cars with seriously injured the inhabitants of Gaza were missed.

It is curious that the president of Egypt at that time was Muhammad Mursi, who came to power as a result of the 2011 revolution. Mursi was a native of the Islamist movement “Muslim Brothers”, and Hamas ruling in Gas was originally the Palestinian wing of the Egyptian “brothers”. But even the close ideological kinship of the Egyptian president with the ruling elite of the Gaza sector could not force Cairo to open borders for Palestinian refugees. Even if Mursi did not dare to let the Palestinians into his country, no one expected this from the current Egyptian President Abdul-Fattach as-Sisi. Sisi, who came to power in 2013 following the results of the coup, sent his predecessor in jail, and forbade the activities of the Muslim Brothers. Later, the court, fully controlled by the Egyptian government, sentenced Muhammad Mursi to the death penalty for state treason.

The verdict said that the overthrown president acted in the interests of a number of foreign organizations that allegedly intended to subjugate Egypt. Among these organizations, Hamas was also mentioned. And although in recent years, Cairo clearly went closer to the authorities in Gaza, this rapprochement did not affect the readiness of the Egyptians to open the Rafach’s checkpoint for the Palestinians. Even in relatively peaceful times, he was discovered only a few weeks a year, and obtaining permission to intersect from the migration services of Egypt could drag on for months.

This is partly due to the fact that Rafach connects the gas sector with the northern Sinai - the most restless region of Egypt. Back in the 1950s, the desert peninsula, which is not really controlled by the authorities, became a refuge for the outcasts of all stripes, ranging from smugglers to the Islamists regularly declared outside the law.

Against the latter, Egypt has been waging war for 11 years - starting with the Arab spring. In the Sinai of the regular army, the motley alliance of the jihadists confronts, which includes militants of al-Qaeda and the Islamic state, which were banned by the "brothers-Muslims", representatives of local Bedouin tribes and many more. Obviously, Cairo understands: cross the Hamas militants across the open border to the Sinai, they will be more likely to take the side of the rebel-jihadists who are ideologically close to them than to the side of the official authorities.

At the same time, the potential economic problems from the opening of the borders are definitely scared by Sisi and his government more than the possible replenishment of jihadist detachments by the militants of Hamas. The growth of the Egyptian economy is hopelessly behind the population growth. The new Egyptian is born every 14 seconds, the country's population grew from about 65 million people in 2000 to 105 million in 2023. In September of this year, President SISI even announced the readiness of the state to take on the control of the birth rate. Without this, he warned, the country can expect an economic collapse in the coming years and - it is possible - a new revolution.

The economic problems from the opening of borders scare Sisi more than the possible replenishment of jihadist detachments Hamas militants

In such a situation, Sisi simply cannot afford to let hundreds of thousands of refugees into the country, which will require accommodation, nutrition, medical care, and then employment. This is especially inappropriate taking into account the presidential elections planned for December. And let the Egyptian elections in their predictability and non -alternativeness are not inferior to the Russian, Sisi does not want to encounter the massive protests of the Egyptians on the eve of the ritual re -election, dissatisfied with the expenses of refugees, while state citizens suffer from prices, unemployment, and the lack of hospitals and schools and other troubles.

Of course, Sisi, of course, cannot directly tell the Palestinians that he is not ready to spend on them thoroughly gnawed by inflation. Panarab's solidarity does not allow and for years the image of the defender of the common people built by him. Therefore, the rhetoric tested over the need to struggle every Palestinian for his state is being tested for years.

The official Cairo directly says: residents of the gas sector should not move to other countries, they need to engage in the construction of an independent Palestinian state on their territory, and not hope for the help of foreign governments. In order for these statements not to sound frankly in a love of civilians in relation to the civilians of Gaza, the Egyptian government offers to settle refugees in the Israeli desert of Negev during the hostilities, which also borders the gas sector.

Jordan: fears the penetration of terrorists along with refugees

The leadership of Jordan is on a similar position. The kingdom of Jordan does not have a common border with the gas sector, but there is with another Palestinian territory - the western coast of the Jordan River. In theory, Israel could organize a corridor for the inhabitants of Gaza to the western coast, and from there they could get to Jordan. Moreover, it was such a plan that the German Chancellor Olaf Sholts brought this week to the Middle East. He brought and was immediately put in place of the Jordanian king Abdalla second.

“I think I can now speak not only on behalf of the government of Jordan, but also on behalf of our Egyptian friends: no refugees in Jordan and no refugees in Egypt ... This is the situation that should be resolved inside the Gaza and inside the West Coast. You cannot shift it to the shoulders of others, ”the monarch spoke out clearly.

The Jordanian monarchy is generally historically very complex relations with the Palestinians in general and with refugees in particular. After the First World War, the territory of the present Jordan became part of the so -called "mandate Palestine" - a quasi -state education, controlled by the UK. In 1946, Jordan (then it was called Transiordania) gained independence, and the territory of mandate Palestine, which remained subordinate to the British, was to be divided between the Jewish and Arab states.

This section, by and large, has not yet occurred - the actually independent Palestinian state still does not exist. Part of the territory reserved for the Palestinian state - the western bank of the Jordan River together with Jerusalem - was under the control of the Jordanian monarchy from 1949 to 1967. The Jordanians lost control of them as a result of the six -day war lost by Israel.

Moreover, the kingdom officially refused the return of the lost territories in favor of the same future Palestinian state. True, by the end of the 1980s, representatives of the West Coast met in the Jordanian parliament, and many inhabitants of the region still had Jordanian passports.

As a result of the differences between the Palestinians and Jordanians, they turned out to be so vague that they allowed the right Israeli politicians and their allies in the USA and Europe to say that the Jordan is the same Arab Palestinian state, which was supposed to appear after the division of the British mandatory territories.

This position was held, for example, Yitzhak Shamir, who twice held the post of head of the Israeli government in the 1980s and 1990s. So, he insisted that Jordanian officials should also be included in the process of negotiations on the peaceful settlement between Israel and Palestinians. It was they who considered them legitimate representatives of the Arab population of the western bank of the Jordan River. And this is not the most radical position.

From time to time, from time to time, Israeli’s right -wing politicians sound to relocate all the Arab residents of the West Coast and Gaza sector in Jordan, and to populate both of these regions with Jews. Indeed, in their view, Jordan is the Palestinian state, which means that Palestinians must live there.

In the representation of the right -wing politicians of Israel, Jordan is the Palestinian state, which means that Palestinians should live there

And this despite the fact that the relations between the Palestinians and the actual Iordans were never cloudless. Each Arab-Israeli war, starting with the very first, which erupted shortly after the appearance of modern Israel in 1948, led to the influx of Palestinian refugees in Jordan. It was in Jordan who appeared and placed their headquarters of the organization-including terrorist ones-who declared their goal the expulsion of Jews from the Middle East.

Among the many Palestinian movements and factions that found refuge in Jordan, there were those that called for the overthrow of the Jordanian monarchy as excessively soft and concessive in relation to Israel. The most desperate from among the radicals even arranged several attempts on the life of King Hussein - the father of the now ruling Abdullah of the Second. Hussein survived and in 1970 went on the attack on the Palestinian groups that finally got out of control.

The confrontation between the Jordanian army and the Palestinians lasted about six months and at first went with varying success. At some point, Palestinians even managed to take control of part of the territory of Jordan. In many ways, this happened due to the fact that several thousand soldiers and officers of the regular Syrian army fought on their side, who disputed the Syrian chevrons from their uniform and sewed the symbols of the Palestinian groups - sort of "folk armies of the LPR and the DPR", but with the Middle Eastern color. The Syrians, by the way, did not explain why they climbed into someone else's war, and indeed they still deny their participation in it, despite obvious evidence.

In the end, the Jordanian army went on the offensive and forced the Palestinians to go to the world. The Jordanian authorities demanded that all armed groups leave the country's territory. The Palestinians were allowed to go to Syria, and from there to Lebanon, taking equipment and weapons with them. Following the militants, from 100 to 150 thousand Palestinian refugees, not related to terrorist groups, went to neighboring countries. Some of them went to Syria or Lebanon because of fears for their safety, but there were those who were forcibly expelled by the Jordanian neighbors.

In general, only children's memories of the war with the Palestinians of the current king, who was born in 1962, is enough to be a hot opponent of refugee reception from the Gaza sector. Well, if you add to this economic instability, a constant threat from the armed groups acting in neighboring Iraq and Syria, which will probably want to replenish their ranks at the expense of the Hamasovites, as well as the likelihood that the influx of the Palestinians will again make the idea of ​​“Iordania”, the position of the position of “Iordine”, then the position of the position of the already fragile national identity. The abdullahs of the second become absolutely understandable.

Syria: "Palestinians must build their power on their land"

Well, what about the Syrians? Maybe the Bashar Assad regime will be ready to accept the civilians of Gaza? Moreover, without Palestinians his dynasty could not have taken place. The fact is that the father of the current Syrian president Haffez Assad commanded the failed operation of the dressed Syrian military in Jordan. In 1970, it was he who was the Minister of Defense of Syria and, quite likely, could pay for the Jordanian defeat by position, freedom, and even life. But Assad Sr. did not wait for him to come for him. He played a lead, overthrew the government, in which he himself was, and became the new head of state.

In this capacity, he was an uncompromising fighter for the Palestinian business all thirty years spent in the presidential chair, and transferred his uncompromising to his son Bashar, who stood at the head of state after the death of his father in 2000. The ill -wishers say that the aggressive missing and anti -Israeli rhetoric, sometimes turning into frank anti -Semitism, is not a sincere belief, but the thoughtful tactics of the Assades, one of the main foundations of their legitimacy.

The fact is that the Assades are Alavites, representatives of a small closed sect, the creed of which is an intricate mixture of Shiite Islam, Gnostic Christianity and Greek philosophy. For the Arab world and for Syria in particular, where Muslims-Sunnis make up the majority of the population, Alavites are dangerous apostates. In order for representatives of this sect to maintain power in the country where they are looked at them almost like the enemies of Islam, they need a non -religious, but at the same time a very significant source of legitimacy. And this source of Assada found the idea of ​​destroying Israel still very popular in the Arab world. Both Hafes and Bashar, if possible, exposed themselves to the defenders of the Muslim world from the Jewish threat allegedly hanging over him.

The author of these lines, who in 2012 met with Bashar al -Assad in his Damascus residence, was forced to listen to frankly conspiracy reasoning from the Syrian president that ISIS was created and armed with Israel to destroy the Arab states, and only the Syrian army saves the Middle East from terrible death.

At the same time, the irreconcilable anti -Israeli position of Assad does not facilitate the position of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees already living in Syria. Syrian citizenship are not given to these refugees or their born to children and grandchildren. They live separately from the Syrians in their settlements and quarters. They are often inaccessible and not the highest quality Syrian medicine and education. The unemployment rate among Palestinians is several times higher than among the indigenous population. In general, the Syrian authorities are doing everything so that the Palestinians do not feel in Syria at home. This is done quite consciously - the Assad regime suffers these people in his country only because their expulsion will exacerbate the already not the best relations with the Arab world.

The Syrian authorities are doing everything so that the Palestinians do not feel in Syria at home

Officially, such an attitude towards refugees is explained in the best traditions of Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi and King Abdullah of the Second: Palestinians should not wait for merits from the rulers of other countries, but return to their land and build their power there.

After the start of the civil war in Syria in 2011, about 160 thousand local Palestinians out of about 500 thousand who lived in the country at that time, were forced to leave their homes and look for asylum in more calm regions or in neighboring states, that is, they became refugees for the second time. The account of the victims of the Syrian war among the Palestinians is going on for thousands. Moreover, among these victims there are many those who were killed by the Syrian army or special services on suspicion of involvement in rebel groups.

In the war, which very quickly acquired the character of inter-religious, in order to arouse suspicions of the forces of the regime, it was often enough to be a Muslim-Sunnit. And therefore, the Palestinians, who, in the vast majority of the Sunnis, more than once became victims of "witch hunts".

A clear anti -Sunitic bias in the actions of the government army and special services led to the fact that Hamas in 2012 closed his representative office in Damascus in protest against such practices. But already in 2022, Assad and the ruling group in the gas sector announced the resumption of relations.

Впрочем, на положении палестинских беженцев в Сирии это потепление никак не сказалось — они по-прежнему подвергаются дискриминации, а их жизни из-за всё еще продолжающихся боевых действий и направленных против суннитов рейдов правительственных сил вряд ли в заметно большей безопасности, чем в Газе. Кроме того, палестинцы, хотя и не имеют права на сирийское гражданство, подлежат призыву в сирийскую армию. Можно без преувеличения сказать, что значительная часть беженцев оказалась перед выбором: или пойти служить в сирийскую армию, или стать жертвой этой армии.

Палестинцы, хотя и не имеют права на сирийское гражданство, подлежат призыву в сирийскую армию

Всё вышеперечисленное — явное нежелание властей иметь дело с уже живущими в их стране беженцами, продолжающаяся война и дискриминация — делают Сирию крайне маловероятным местом для переселения мирных жителей Газы. Кроме того, у Сирии нет ни границ с палестинскими территориями, ни официальных отношений с Израилем, без участия которого вопрос переселения многих тысяч палестинцев решить невозможно.

Ливан: бедная страна, балансирующая на грани втягивания в войну

Похожий на сирийский режим дискриминации палестинских беженцев действует и в Ливане. Тамошние палестинцы тоже живут отдельно от коренного населения, тоже не имеют права на получение гражданства и тоже существенно ограничены в доступе к материальным и социальным благам. И это неудивительно — страна с 1976 по 2005 год была под сирийской оккупацией и оккупанты принесли с собой и свои порядки.

Более того, вторжение сирийской армии в соседнюю страну проводилось под предлогом обуздания палестинских боевых групп, неконтролируемая деятельность которых стала одним из главных факторов начала в 1975 году гражданской войны в Ливане. Таким образом, Хафез Асад умудрился выступить как на стороне палестинцев в Иордании, так и против них в Ливане.

А с учетом того, что палестинские боевые организации оказались в Ливане после изгнания из Иордании, можно смело делать вывод, что воевал Асад против своих же недавних союзников. Ливанское правительство явно не настроено добавлять к своим многочисленным проблемам, таким как затянувшийся экономический кризис, неспособность политических сил сформировать хоть сколько-нибудь ответственное правительство, высочайшие показатели безработицы и инфляции, еще и заботу о беженцах из Газы.

В общем-то, и без заявлений в духе лидеров Египта и Иордании понятно, что бедная страна, раздираемая бесконечным числом внутренних противоречий, балансирующая на грани втягивания в войну против Израиля на стороне ХАМАС, просто не готова стать домом — пускай и временным — для тысяч бегущих от боевых действий людей.

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