Azerbaijan took the troops from the border-the vice speaker of the Armenian parliament. Experts note the threat of a new attack to the south of the country next year

The Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly of Armenia AKOP Arshakyan said that at present the country's borders do not have accumulations of Azerbaijani troops. According to Armenpress, Arshakyan informed reporters about this, answering the question of the forecast of the Lemkin Institute for the prevention of genocide. The day before, this organization issued a warning about the possible attack of Azerbaijan on Armenia “In the coming days and weeks” with the aim of capturing the Syunik region.

“According to our information, at the moment there is no accumulation of troops around the borders of Armenia. Is there a threat? It should be noted certain positive shifts in terms of changing rhetoric, as well as the adoption of resolutions by authoritative international bodies, statements of parliaments, governments, various organizations that the territorial integrity of Armenia cannot be questioned, ”Arshakyan said.

The reports that Azerbaijan pulls troops and military equipment to the borders of Armenia and Nagorno -Karabakh appeared in early September. On September 19, the Azerbaijani army began the invasion of Nagorny Karabakh, as a result of which, according to the Investigative Committee of Armenia, more than 200 military personnel of the NKR defense army and civilians died. By the end of September, almost the entire Armenian population of the region was forced to flee to Armenia.

At the end of October, Turkey and Azerbaijan conducted joint military exercises in Baku, Nakhichevan and Nagorno -Karabakh, near the Armenian borders.

On October 13, Politico wrote with reference to her own sources that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned the congressman group that Azerbaijan’s troops could invade the south of Armenia in the coming weeks. Later, the press secretary of the State Department Matthew Miller said that the information in the article "is inaccurate and in no way reflects that the Secretary of State Blinken said to the legislators." Miller also emphasized that any attempt on the sovereignty of Armenia "will entail serious consequences."

As the associate professor of the Department of Political Science of the University of Nevada (USA), Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, told The Insider, according to his estimates, in the coming months of full -scale invasion by Azerbaijan, you should not expect, but the new attack may occur next year.

“Ilham Aliyev received that he wanted, with the Nagorno -Karabakh and is not going to experience fate before the international community. If you need to evaluate the risks, I would say that after four months, Baku activates propaganda, begin to make demands and threaten; After another two to three months, they can initiate an invasion. Thus, if a new attack happens, this will happen either in May, or if they extend their pre -war preparations for several months, in September next year. Of course, all this depends on many factors.

Aliyev is very calculating, rational and pragmatic. He has the necessary political capital, has an idea of ​​what the consequences will be. I think he is quite conservative in his calculations: he initiates military operations only when he is sure that he can soften the political consequences. He always has a game plan, he begins to justify the upcoming attacks even before he performs them, his diplomats begin to exchange messages and check the reaction of various Western capitals, and he always consults with Turkey before acting.

People think that he is crazy because he is inclined to untie the wars, but this is not so. He deliberately uses the “ madman theory ” to justify his plans to use force. This is a well -calculated process. ”

In September 2022, the army of Azerbaijan invaded the southern and southeastern regions of Armenia, the bombardment was subjected to the resort city of Jermuk, more than 200 people were killed . A year later, the Ambassador of France to Armenia Olivier Decottini confirmed that the Azerbaijani military still remains in the seized positions. “In Jermuk, along with the European Union mission in Armenia, I stated a stubborn occupation by Azerbaijan of entire sections of the Armenian territory,” the ambassador wrote to the social network X.