Translated material
War and labor market: the number of legal labor migrants in Russia decreased in the first half of 2023, despite an acute labor shortage
The number of labor migrants with legal grounds for working in Russia in the first half of 2023 decreased by 10–15% compared to the first half of 2022, when it reached post-Covid peaks, and at the end of the first half of 2023 amounted to 2.15 million people . This decline is not very significant in itself, but looks surprising against the backdrop of the acute shortage of workers and rising wages observed in the Russian labor market during this period. Obviously, this should indicate a decline in the attractiveness of the Russian market for labor migrants. However, the real numbers of labor migration are higher - due to illegal migrants and citizens of the EAEU countries who do not need work permits. According to demographers, in 2019 the real number of labor migrants in Russia could be about 4.5 million people (7% of the economically employed population), which is 2.5 times higher than the number of officially issued permits. What can be said for sure is that the number of Russian passports issued to foreigners in the first half of 2023 decreased to 205 thousand, that is, by about a third compared to previous years, which may be directly related to the desire of the Russian authorities to use new Russian citizens as cannon fodder.
Overall, it appears that the war, economic instability in 2022 and labor market tensions in the first half of 2023 have not had a significant impact on the scale of migration flows and labor migration in Russia. However, there is no completely reliable data on this matter.
Historical series of migration statistics in Russia are a rather unreliable thing due to constantly changing accounting rules. The largest number of people arriving for permanent residence or long-term stay was recorded in 2019 and then in 2022, notes a recent issue of the demographic review Demoscope Weekly . According to Rosstat, more than 701 thousand people entered the country in 2019, a quarter more than the year before. But this phenomenon is explained by the same administrative factors - in 2019, new statistical registration forms were introduced, the completion of which became mandatory for local authorities. Then came two Covid years, which disrupted normal migration flows both in and out, because residence permits were automatically extended into 2021. In 2022, 730 thousand people were counted. In the first half of 2023, the influx of migrants to Russia decreased compared to the same period last year: 282 thousand people arrived in Russia, 15% less than in the first half of 2022 (323 thousand). About 90% of those arriving are citizens of CIS countries.
After Covid disruptions in the first half of 2023, the flow of departures from Russia also returned to normal levels: 202.5 thousand people left the country in January–June. As a result, in January–June 2023, the migration growth of Russia’s population amounted to 79.3 thousand, or 10.9 people per 10 thousand permanent population - this is lower than the six-month indicator for the entire period from 2011 to 2019. In the early 2010s, migration growth remained at about 20 people per 10 thousand permanent population over the six months.
However, these data do not provide any idea of the scale of labor migration to Russia (although they include data on the movement of workers' families). To do this, experts use three statistical sources, the data of which is reviewed in the latest issue of Demoscope . Firstly, the Border Service of the FSB of the Russian Federation records the number of entries into Russia for the purpose of work (in order to then obtain legal permission, you must indicate “work” as the purpose of the trip). In 2019, more than 4 million people (4,095 thousand) entered Russia for this purpose; then, during the pandemic years of 2020–2021, the flow fell sharply (1,084 and 2,598 thousand, respectively), but in 2022 it approached the norm, although and remained below 2019. (It must be borne in mind that many migrants make several entries and exits per year.)
The second source of statistical data is the Ministry of Internal Affairs: while staying in Russia for more than seven days, a foreigner is required to register for migration. According to the Main Directorate for Migration Issues of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, in 2022 there were more than 11.8 million registrations of foreign citizens who arrived for the purpose of work. Here, too, we are not talking about the number of people, but about the number of registrations: moving from place to place or leaving and entering, a migrant is forced to register again. Therefore, these data can only show the general dynamics and geography of migration registration. Thus, in the first half of 2022, 5.9 million productions were performed, and in the first half of 2023 - 3.5 million, that is, significantly less. But here, too, the changes could be influenced by various factors: for example, migrants this year received work for a longer period, which is quite consistent with the situation when there is a shortage of workers in the labor market. At the same time, 41% of all registrations occurred in Moscow (26%) and the Moscow region (15%), and another 13% in St. Petersburg and its environs. In registration statistics, the leadership belongs to citizens of Uzbekistan: 2.915 million in the first half of 2022 and 1.67 million in the first half of 2023. Thus their share is about 50%. Next come citizens of Tajikistan - this is about 30% of all registrations.
The third source is Rosstat, which keeps records of issued legal grounds for work - permits and patents. In 2018–2019, there were about 1.8 million legal labor migrants in Russia—about 100 thousand had work permits and about 1.7 million had patents. By the first quarter of 2021, due to Covid, their number decreased by approximately half, but then began to grow sharply and in the first quarter of 2022 reached almost 2.4 million people. After the start of the war, the number of legal labor migrants began to decline slightly, and in the first quarter of 2023 in Russia there were 1.96 million migrants with patents and 70 thousand with work permits, that is, their number decreased by 15% by the first quarter of 2022 . However, operational data for January–June 2023 show that by the end of the first half of the year, the number of legally employed people increased by approximately 130 thousand people, to 2.16 million.
According to Rosstat records, since 2008, legally working foreigners have accounted for about 3% of the total labor force in the country (with a serious decrease only during the pandemic). However, demographers believe that the real number of foreign labor in Russia is approximately twice as high, since citizens of the EAEU countries (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) can work in the Russian Federation without obtaining permits, and some foreign citizens work in Russia illegally. As a result, according to some estimates , in 2007–2011 the share of labor migrants in the economy was 7–8%, in 2012–2014 it grew to 9–11%, and in 2019 it amounted to 4.5 million people, that is, again 7% of the total number of economically employed people. Thus, the real number of labor migrants was approximately 2.5 times higher than the number of legally employed people.
If we rely on official data, we can say that the number of migrants registered in the first half of 2023 decreased impressively - by 40%, and the number of those who received work permits and patents - by 10-15%. The decrease in the number of those receiving legal permission is not so significant, but it seems surprising, given that in Russia at that moment there was an acute shortage of labor due to the outflow of half a million to a million workers from the labor market (emigration and mobilization) and an increase in wages was observed.
What can be said definitely is that the number of Russian passports issued to foreigners in the first half of 2023 decreased sharply compared to previous years and amounted to 205 thousand versus 302 thousand in the first half of 2020, 352 thousand in the first half of 2021- th and 288 thousand - in the first half of 2022. Thus, on average over three years, 314 thousand people received Russian citizenship in the first half of the year, and in the first half of 2023 - a third less, Demoscope reports. This effect may be directly related to the war and the desire of the Russian authorities to shift the burdens of military service onto new citizens of the Russian Federation.