Russia is today in the most difficult situation since the fall of 2022, when the Russian army in Ukraine was forced to retreat and left about 17 thousand square meters. km of occupied territory. Today, however, it is not a matter of retreat on the ground, but of the advantage in the middle skies that Ukraine has gained by developing an asymmetrical offensive against Russian rear infrastructure.

The perception of the war in Ukraine in European public opinion has changed significantly over the past year and a half. As a result, today it is clearly seen as a direct issue of European security and, to a large extent, an existential challenge for Europe. Paradoxically, this was facilitated by a sharp deterioration in relations between Europe and the United States.

European perceptions of the war in Ukraine have changed significantly over the past eighteen months. As a result, the conflict is now widely viewed as a matter of European security and, to a considerable extent, as an existential challenge for Europe itself. Paradoxically, this shift has been driven in part by the sharp deterioration in relations between Europe and the United States.

The agreement between Iran and the US undoubtedly reflects a partial defeat for Donald Trump in the latest conflict. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz appears to have been his principal objective, while all other aspects of the arrangement have been deferred to a subsequent phase and may ultimately never be realised.

The Iran-US agreement undoubtedly reflects Donald Trump's partial defeat in the latest war. Unblocking the Strait of Hormuz seems to be his main goal, while all other aspects of the agreements are postponed until the next stage and, quite possibly, will not be achieved. At the same time, US concessions do not seem very significant, and further steps - lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets - are conditioned by the progress of future negotiations.

Warning shots from small arms from the Russian military frigate "Admiral Grigorovich" towards the peaceful yacht "Bright Future" in the English Channel showed that the European coalition and Russia are very close to the possibility of a military confrontation over Russia's shadow fleet.

Warning shots fired from a Russian military frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich towards the civilian yacht Bright Future in the English Channel have demonstrated how close Russia and the European coalition have come to the possibility of a military confrontation over Russia’s shadow fleet. The first phase of escalation was initiated by Moscow.

While the Russia-Ukraine war has largely reached a stalemate ‘on the ground’, with Russian forces having brought only around 1.5% of Ukrainian territory under their control over the past two and a half years, a mutual war of attrition is unfolding across several theatres of operations and is having an ever-greater impact on the dynamics of the conflict. This contest is inflicting increasingly significant psychological and economic damage on both sides of the front line.

While the Russian-Ukrainian war on the ground has reached a stalemate—in two and a half years, Russian troops have taken control of only about 1.5 percent of Ukraine—a mutual war of attrition is unfolding across multiple theaters of operations and is having an increasingly greater impact on the dynamics of the conflict, causing ever more significant psychological and economic damage on both sides of the front line.

Investments in fixed assets fell by almost 15% in the first quarter. Russian authorities are trying to downplay the scale of the event and talk about a natural correction after the investment boom of 2022–2024. However, such indicators of investment compression have been observed only twice over the past 30 years: in 1998 after the default and in 2009 against the backdrop of the crisis, which resulted in a reduction in Russian GDP by almost 8%.

The political stability of wartime Russia, and the apparent equanimity of Russian society in the face of mounting material and human losses, are commonly attributed to the pro-war convictions of the Russian ‘majority’ and to ‘top-down’ influence — a combination of propaganda and repression. The heightened loyalty recorded in public opinion surveys is, in turn, often interpreted as a classic ‘rally-round-the-flag’ effect.

The political stability of a warring Russia and the ability of Russian society to maintain equanimity in the face of growing material and human losses are usually explained by the pro-war beliefs of the Russian “majority” and factors of “vertical” influence - a combination of propaganda and repression. And the increased loyalty demonstrated in surveys is a “rallying under the flag” effect.

The pace of Russia's spring offensive has been the slowest in the past three years, and by May the front had effectively ground to a halt despite continued heavy Russian personnel losses. Russia's numerical advantage has largely ceased to translate into territorial gains. The Russian command is confronting a systemic crisis.

The pace of the Russian spring offensive was the slowest in the last three years, and in May the front finally stood still, despite the high level of manpower losses on the Russian side. The numerical advantage has practically ceased to be converted into territorial gains for the Russian army.

The additional revenues that fell on the Kremlin due to the sharp rise in oil prices and the easing of sanctions did not lead to a revival of the Russian economy. On the contrary, the influx of currency contributes to the further strengthening of the ruble, the exchange rate of which has returned to pre-war values. As a result, the revival of domestic demand is covered by expanding imports.