37% of Russian residents surveyed have a relative who is or has participated in the war in Ukraine. At first glance, this is a staggeringly large amount. In reality - nothing strange. The war has lasted almost five years, the number of Russian forces exceeds 700 thousand people, the losses in killed and wounded are, according to available estimates, about 1.5 million.

37% of Russian residents surveyed have a relative who is currently fighting or has fought in the war in Ukraine. At first glance, this is a staggering proportion. In reality, however, it is hardly surprising. The war has been going on for almost five years, the size of Russia’s military contingent exceeds 700,000 personnel, and estimated casualties, including those killed and wounded, stand at around 1.5 million.

Ukrainian public opinion polls in September-October show growing war fatigue amid a barrage of Russian air strikes, gloomy forebodings of a difficult winter and a growing willingness to compromise on ending the war. Freezing the conflict along the current line of contact looks like an increasingly acceptable, consensus scenario for Ukrainian society, although a significant part of it still advocates continuing the war for the sake of returning territories.

Ukrainian opinion polls conducted in September and October point to growing war fatigue amid a barrage of Russian air strikes, gloomy expectations of a difficult winter and an increasing willingness to compromise on ending the war. Freezing the conflict along the current line of contact is becoming an increasingly acceptable, consensus option for Ukrainian society, although a substantial proportion of the population still favours continuing the war to recover lost territories.

The total cost of “manpower” in war expenses continues to grow and currently amounts to more than 3 trillion rubles based on six months of military operations, updated calculations by Re: Russia show. Bonuses for signing a contract alone cost the Kremlin more than 600 billion rubles per six months, of which more than 500 billion is covered from regional budgets. The wages of the warring faction cost more than a trillion rubles, and payments for the dead and wounded cost about 1.4 trillion.

Total expenditure on ‘manpower’ as part of Russia’s war spending continues to rise, exceeding 3 trillion roubles for every six months of military operations, according to updated calculations by Re: Russia. Signing bonuses alone cost the Kremlin more than 600 billion roubles over six months, of which more than 500 billion is covered by regional budgets.

Industrial production for the eight months of 2026 remained at previous levels, and GDP growth almost stopped. At first glance, the Russian economy has been near the “freezing point” for more than a year. However, aggregated indicators close to zero hide specific processes characteristic of this phase of the wartime economy. The stagnation of generalized indicators masks sharp polarization.

Russia has seized the initiative from Ukraine on the air front and is increasing its offensive in several directions at once, attacking Ukrainian energy and transport infrastructure, ports, production facilities and the country’s capital, Kyiv. The main resource of this offensive is the rapid expansion and improvement of the arsenal of strike air assets.

Russia has seized the initiative from Ukraine on the air front and is intensifying its offensive along several axes at once, attacking Ukrainian energy and transport infrastructure, ports, industrial facilities and the country’s capital, Kyiv. The main driving force behind this offensive is the rapid expansion and modernisation of its aerial strike capabilities.

The sharply accelerated decline in investment in the first half of 2026 indicates that the Russian economy is not at all in a “cooling” phase after the investment boom, but has entered a period of investment recession with a wide front of decline and a sharply narrowed range of industries in which investment growth continues. In the first half of the year, investment fell by almost 10%, with the decline affecting 14 of the 18 major industry sections.

The sharp acceleration in the decline in investment during the first half of 2026 indicates that the Russian economy is not simply going through a period of ‘cooling’ following an investment boom. Rather, it has entered a period of investment contraction characterised by a broad-based decline and a sharply narrowing range of sectors in which investment growth is still being maintained.

Repression of the managerial elite is as integral a part of autocracy as political repression. Corruption and selective anti-corruption prosecutions constitute a dual mechanism of governance here and for two decades have been a tool for the consolidation and centralization of political power in Russia. How did their character change during the war years?

Repression targeting the administrative elite is as integral to autocracy as political repression. Corruption and selective anti-corruption prosecutions constitute a dual mechanism of governance and have, for two decades, served as a tool for consolidating and centralising political power in Russia. How has their character changed over the years of the war?

The preliminary results of the Duma elections from the Central Election Commission demonstrate that the electoral vertical has made every effort to fulfill the task set by the Kremlin. After Vladimir Putin effectively called the election a vote of confidence in his agenda of military escalation, the voting result required from the regions was raised to levels close to the 60-60 formula, that is, 60% of the vote for United Russia with a turnout of about 60%.

The preliminary results of the Duma elections released by the Central Election Commission (CEC) show that the electoral hierarchy made every effort to fulfil the task set by the Kremlin. After Vladimir Putin effectively framed the election as a vote of confidence in his agenda of military escalation, the required regional voting results were raised to levels approaching the 60/60 formula, namely 60% of the vote for United Russia with turnout of around 60%.