A year of standstill: if Ukraine survives in 2024, Russia will never be able to achieve victory in the war, experts say

2024 will be the most difficult period of the war for Ukraine, not counting the first weeks of the Russian invasion. Against the backdrop of dwindling Western aid, a significant advantage in resources on Russia's side will allow it to deplete the Ukrainian army, achieve a decisive advantage on the battlefield and end the war on its own terms. And vice versa: if Ukraine, with sufficient support from the West, builds a competent defense and consolidates its forces, the situation may turn in its favor. In 2025, Russia's defense resources will begin to decline, while the West will increase the production of weapons and ammunition, and also prepare a professional reserve for the Ukrainian army. But in order to survive, Ukraine must first of all create a fortified, deeply echeloned defense system, similar to the one encountered by the Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2023, revise the mobilization policy, including by lowering the average age of conscription, establish repairs and production of components for military equipment and producing its own drones, as well as preparing forces for counter-offensives in 2025. And if the West helps Ukraine with this in 2024, Russia is unlikely to ever be able to achieve the implementation of its victory strategy, military experts say.

Having visited the front line, the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, called the “operational situation” “extremely complex and tense.” Ahead is the most unfavorable period of the war for Ukraine, when Russia will have a significant advantage in resources against the backdrop of uncertainty and instability of assistance to Ukraine from the West.

Royal Defense Studies Institute (RUSI) experts Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds believe Russia expects to win the war during 2024–25. The plan for this victory involves increasing pressure along the entire front line, and then carrying out offensive operations that will lead to the capitulation of Kharkov and Odessa. This will become possible, among other things, due to the reduction of Western aid and the depletion of Ukrainian forces. At the same time, in their opinion, Russian military potential will decrease. Today, Moscow manages to replenish its arsenal through reserves of weapons and equipment, which are repaired and modernized at military-industrial complex enterprises. However, by 2025 this resource will be largely depleted. At the same time, by this time the West will have launched a new production of ammunition and military equipment.

If the West helps Ukraine survive in 2024, Russia is unlikely to be able to achieve the implementation of its victory strategy in 2025, experts say. By this time, Kiev may already have prepared significant professional military reserves, including reserves of junior command personnel, which will largely neutralize the numerical advantage of Russian manpower. Conversely, if Russia achieves significant success in depleting Ukrainian forces and capabilities in 2024, then it will be extremely difficult for Kyiv to restore the potential of the army in 2025.

Prominent military experts Michael Kofman, Rob Lee and Dara Massicot also believe that 2024 will determine the future trajectory of the war. If military and economic support from the West weakens, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will exhaust their resistance potential and Kyiv will have to enter into negotiations with Moscow from a weak position. However, if the West continues to help, Ukraine can effectively counter Russian forces this year and create a battlefield advantage for large-scale offensive operations next year. According to experts, Ukraine should adhere to a strategy built on three pillars: maintaining positions, improving defense characteristics and restoring offensive capabilities.

Ukraine needs to focus on containing Russia to minimize the success of its offensive operations and maximize the damage suffered by the enemy. It is necessary to create a fortified, deeply layered defense system, similar to the one encountered by the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Today, experts write, Ukraine’s efforts in this direction are absolutely insufficient. In Russia there are special engineering brigades that build and improve fortifications, while in the Ukrainian army ordinary maneuver brigades are responsible for defense. A more sophisticated defensive strategy would include underground bunkers and tunnels to offset Russia's advantage in artillery and bombs.

Thanks to Western support and the transfer of industrial capacity, such as 3D printing machines, Ukraine can independently service and produce new components for Western equipment. The problem, however, is that the arsenal of equipment Kiev received from Western countries is extremely diverse - it includes 14 different types of artillery and many models of tanks (Leopard, Challenger, Abrams), infantry fighting vehicles, mine-resistant vehicles, etc. Experts propose partly solving the problem of component shortages by establishing closer cooperation between Western governments and defense companies, on the one hand, and private charities, on the other. The West should also provide assistance to Ukraine in the production of drones and electronic warfare systems against drones, which will partially compensate for the shortage of shells that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will experience throughout this year.

In addition, in order to attract additional manpower, Ukraine will still have to reconsider its mobilization policy, including reducing the average age of conscription. In parallel, Ukraine needs, with the help of the West, to conduct large-scale military training of new forces that should be capable of conducting offensive operations in 2025. Company, battalion and brigade commanders, as well as their staffs, cannot be adequately trained in a short period of time.

If in 2024 Ukraine is able to deplete Russian forces at the peak of Moscow's defense spending, and then seizes the initiative and inflicts a series of defeats on the Russian army in 2025, this will give Kyiv the necessary leverage over the enemy, experts conclude. But for this scenario to be realized, the West must develop a long-term strategy to support Ukraine and stick to it. Otherwise, the defeat of Ukraine will lead to Kyiv irrevocably losing control not only over its territory, but also over part of its sovereignty.