Navalny's death has become an international event: the West is indignant but powerless, Trump and the global South are trying not to offend Putin

Navalny's death in a Russian colony had a gigantic effect throughout the world. Western leaders clearly blamed Vladimir Putin for the death of the politician. However, the West has practically no tools left to influence the Kremlin, even symbolic ones. However, the only practical consequence of the shock caused by the death of the politician may be a more favorable attitude of the West towards the Russians who left the country, as well as greater attention to the problem of political prisoners in Russia. Yulia Navalnaya called on Western leaders to do this, and many experts write about this. At the same time, in the United States, Navalny’s death became a factor in the election campaign. Against the backdrop of energetic statements by Joe Biden, who blamed Putin for the death of Navalny, Donald Trump, on the contrary, avoided any assessments by the Russian authorities. At the same time, Navalny's murder has been vigorously condemned by many prominent representatives of the Republican Party, who also blame Putin for it. Views of Putin are a divisive issue within Trump's support groups, and Navalny's death has intensified the debate in America and among Republicans. Meanwhile, in unison with Trump, leaders and governments of countries in the global South are shying away from assessing the Russian authorities and commenting on the death of the Russian opposition leader.

The murder of Navalny in a polar prison caused outrage in the Western world. The leaders of Western countries expressed condolences to the family of Alexei Navalny and the Russians, placing responsibility for the death of the politician on Vladimir Putin. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell announced that the EU sanctions mechanism for the protection of human rights will be named after Alexei Navalny, and also called on the Kremlin to immediately release political prisoners and “allow an independent and transparent international investigation into the circumstances of the sudden death” of Navalny. European advocates for more intensive support for Ukraine are calling on their colleagues to step up such support in the face of this crime. A number of European countries have already summoned Russian ambassadors to protest their governments over the circumstances of the politician’s death.

However, the leadership of the EU and the US has practically no tools left for even symbolic influence on Moscow. In 2021, Joe Biden threatened Putin with “devastating” consequences if Alexei Navalny dies in prison. However, since then, almost all of the “destructive” measures have already been put into effect. The next 13th package of EU sanctions, which is planned to be approved by the second anniversary of the start of a full-scale war in Ukraine, does not contain revolutionary innovations and is not related to Navalny’s death.

The actual consequence of Navalny’s death, however, may be a more sympathetic attitude of the West towards citizens who have left and are leaving Russia for political reasons, as well as greater attention to the topic of political persecution in Russia, which, against the backdrop of the war, has been on the periphery of the attention of politicians and the press. Yulia Navalnaya called on the West for this in her address to the EU Foreign Affairs Council , and many experts write about this.

Thus, the director of the Program for Democratic Sustainability of the Center for European Policy Analysis, professor at King's College London, Sam Green, believes that the United States and its allies have the opportunity to take measures in response to the murder of Navalny that will have a real impact on the Kremlin and the future of Russian politics. First, a key element of US policy towards Russia should be concern for the fate of political prisoners, Green notes in The National Interest . Now, according to Memorial , there are about 700 people in Russian prisons convicted in politically motivated cases. Among them are Vladimir Kara-Murza, Ilya Yashin, Evan Gershkovich, Alsou Kurmasheva and others. During the Cold War, American diplomacy constantly reminded Moscow that it was monitoring the fate of political prisoners, which may have saved someone from execution. The United States must still do everything possible to save people’s lives.

Secondly, Greene writes, American policymakers must send a clear signal that whoever takes Putin’s place in the future, easing the sanctions regime will be possible only if all political prisoners are released. The third element of Green's proposed strategy is the creation of asylum opportunities for Russian citizens fleeing repression and war. Finally, Western states need to sever all ties with Russian law enforcement agencies. Greene also believes that no Western court or authority should authorize the extradition of a suspect to Russia or deport a Russian citizen, even to a third country, if there is a possibility that he will end up facing trial in Russia.

Another way to respond to Navalny’s murder is to undermine the legitimacy of Putin himself and his regime, notes Mikhail Khodorkovsky in a column for Politico. The West must make it very clear that it considers the March elections and their results illegitimate (Yulia Navalnaya also spoke about this in her address). Such a move would likely lead to the curtailment of many contacts with Putin. Declaring the Putin regime illegitimate will also deal a blow to those who continue to do business with the Kremlin despite sanctions, and will also contribute to the federalization and democratization of Russia in the future. If the results of the March elections are not recognized, a halo of illegitimacy will also cover Putin’s successor, the politician believes. However, there is no legal procedure in this regard, and it is not clear how such non-recognition can be formalized and what consequences can be associated with it.

In the US, Navalny's death immediately became the focus of the presidential campaign. Joe Biden's statements blaming Putin for the death of the oppositionist sound especially energetic against the backdrop of first silence and then ambiguous statements by Donald Trump. The latter, in a rather ridiculous way, used Navalny’s death to attack American leftists and liberals: “The sudden death of Alexei Navalny made me increasingly aware of what was happening in our country. It is a slow but steady process in which dishonest radical left politicians, prosecutors and judges are leading us down a path of destruction.” Thus, Trump avoided any assessments of the Russian authorities themselves.

This position of Trump provokes attacks not only from Democrats, but also, which is much more important in today’s situation, from some Republicans. Nikki Haley, who positions herself as a Republican alternative to Trump, said that his knees shake when it comes to Putin. Thus, she hinted at suspicions that Moscow has dirt on Trump, forcing him to be loyal to Putin. In general, “hawkish” Republicans are characterized by extreme intolerance and harshness in their assessments of Putin. An example of this type of attitude can be considered the position of Senator from Carolina Lindsey Graham, who accused Putin of murdering a politician and stated once again that Russia should be recognized as a state sponsor of terrorism, writes The Telegraph . Thus, the issue of attitudes toward Putin is a potentially divisive issue for Trump support groups.

But Trump’s evasive position sounds in unison with the statements of the leaders of the countries of the global South. Brazilian President Lula said, according to Reuters , that it would be premature to bring any charges in connection with Navalny's death pending an investigation. And the official representative of the ruling Indian People's Party refused to condemn Russia in connection with the death of the politician and only noted that India sees Russia as its friend and partner, feels the support of Russia and, in turn, supports it. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also categorically refused to comment, stating ( according to RIA Novosti ) that Navalny’s death is an internal matter of Russia.