People against drones: why do the Russian authorities build up payments to contractors and how does this affect the attitude of Russians to the war?

The “contract race” that started back at the beginning of the year intensified in May -June: the regions of the way raising the payments to the signing contract for the war. In some places they reach 1.5 million rubles ($ 16 thousand) and even surpass this threshold. Since the summer of last year, the average size of a lump -sum regional payment has increased by 1.7 times.

On average, the monthly monetary reward for participating in the war is almost three times higher than the average monthly Russian salary, and the average one -time payment when concluding the contract is about 485 thousand rubles, or $ 5.3 thousand. This approximately corresponds to the annual average per capita income in the country.

Such terms of the contract are highly competitive for most regions of Russia. Especially for the periphery, where the average per capita income and average salaries are much lower than the average in the country and even in the region. A lump -sum payment allows you to simultaneously solve the significant financial problems of the family.

At the same time, the new contract changes the attitude to the participants of “Svo” in society and undermines the parallels cultivated by propaganda from the Great Patriotic War. New contractors are more likely “good luck soldiers” now than the defenders of the Fatherland-patriots warriors.

An important component of the competitiveness of a new contract is also the probability of being killed. In the context of the Russian offensive and a sharp increase in the drone arsenal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, such a probability can significantly increase this summer and, as a result, make a new contract model to a dead end.

However, while the Russian authorities, it seems, believe in the “window of opportunities”, which opened in front of them this spring, and strive to approach the situation of a critical advantage in manpower through a contract race.

Contract race

Russian regions continue to increase the amount of lump -sum payments when concluding a contract for a war in Ukraine. According to the review of Novaya Gazeta Europe , in June, the increase in payments took place in nine regions. In fact, this wave began at the end of May, among those who raised payments-Petersburg, Leningrad Region, Karachay-Cherkessia, Khabarovsk Territory, Chelyabinsk Region, Sverdlovsk Region, Tatarstan, Yaroslavl Region.

The largest payment is offered today by Karachay-Cherkessia : in June it was increased to 1.305 million rubles (despite the fact that in April it was already increased four times- from 100 to 400 thousand ). The total amount that the new contractor receives in the republic is thus 1.5 million rubles. Recall that the basic salary of a contractor in the war with Ukraine is now 210 thousand rubles a month. At the conclusion of the contract, he receives a federal one -time payment with a size of 195 thousand and regional payment. City (municipal) payments that are increasingly widespread from this spring may also be added to them: 305 thousand in Nizhny Novgorod and Maykop, 250 thousand in Krasnodar, 200 thousand in Kazan, 100 thousand in Makhachkala, etc.

For Karachay-Cherkesia in the list of the most generous regions are St. Petersburg , which also for the second time since the beginning of the year increased the payment of to 1.3 million rubles in June (in March the city raised it from 695 thousand to 1.1 million), the Republic of Adygea (1 million) and Krasnodar Territory (1 million). In total, when signing the contract, a volunteer in the Krasnodar Territory can get a one -time up to 1.645 million, including 1 million regional payments plus 250 thousand from the Krasnodar administration, 195 thousand federal and another 200 thousand in the event that the contractor goes to serve in personal regional units. The Nizhny Novgorod Region (805 thousand rubles) and Moscow, which pays a contractor, is closed by the six leaders in regional payments, so the payment for an annual contract in the capital will amount to 600 thousand - in addition to 195 thousand federal payments.

In April, we wrote that, according to a limited sample of regions, payments from the beginning of the year have grown by 40% (→ RE: Russia: counter mobilization ). The most accurate and complete data for all regions at the end of June collected the project “Says Nemoskva” . If you rely on them, then in August 2023, regional payments were practiced in 52 regions and their average amount was 186 thousand rubles, that is, taking into account the federal payment, the recruited for war received an average of 290 thousand (about $ 3100). By the second half of June 2024, the average regional payment of 77 regions producing them was already 290 thousand, and the final amount increased to 485 thousand (about $ 5300). That is, per year of payment increased 1.7 times.

Six leaders provide payments in the amount of 800 thousand to 1.5 million rubles ($ 9–16 thousand). However, you can conclude a contract in any region, regardless of the place of registration. Therefore, the champions of military commerce, in fact, as vacuum cleaners stretch those who wish from other regions. In this regard, some weak regions bordering on strong ones do not even participate in the payment of payments: those who wish will still go for contracts to their neighbors. The six leaders are followed by 16 regions with payments from 500 to 700 thousand ($ 5.5–7.5 thousand) and 23 more regions with payments from 400 to 500 thousand ($ 4.3–5.4 thousand).

Heroes of war or soldiers of good luck?

The average monthly salary in Russia, according to Rosstat , amounted to 73 thousand rubles in March 2024, the median - 56.5 thousand. Thus, the average one -time payment is about seven average Russian salaries or about nine median. The monthly average per capita income in Russia in the first quarter of 2024 was equal to 45 thousand rubles, and the median - 36.5 thousand, that is, the average lump -sum payment is equal to 11 monthly average revenues and 13.5 median and is thus approximately the average per capita income of a Russian resident in a year.

But these average in Russia income and salaries do not allow to feel the real value of payment for residents of poor regions. So, in seven regions, a one -time payment is 12–33 times higher than the regional average salary and 18-64 times - the average per capita regional monthly income. That is, here the payment exceeds that in the middle workplace in the region you can earn from a year to three. In 33 regions, the payment is from half -year to the annual average regional salary. In relation to the average per capita income, a one -time payment exceeds the annual average per capita income in 28 regions and at 40 is located in the range from half -year to annual.

The main attractiveness of a lump-sum payment is that it allows you to immediately solve significant family financial problems: to pay a mortgage for a mortgage or on a car loan, make repairs or pay off debts (regions with the highest payments for signing a contract, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic and the Republic of Adygea, are included in the first ten regions of the country by the share of overdue debts to banks: 6.3 and 6.3 and 6.3 and 6.3 and 5.7%, respectively, with an average indicator in Russia 3.41%, notes the New Gazeta Europe).

Lider regions in terms of a lump -sum payment at the conclusion of a military contract with average wages and average monthly income

The ratio of a lump -sum payment when concluding a military contract with average wages and average per capita monthly income in the Russian regions

In the most brief form, we can say that the contractor departing to the war receives a monthly salary that is almost three times higher than the average Russian, and a payment of half -year to annual average income in its region. And this, of course, is a very competitive proposal, given that on the periphery of the Russian regions, from where the “volunteers”-contractions are mainly coming, this ratio is even more impressive.

This new situation has significant consequences for the perception of war by the Russian population as a whole. According to the included observation of Russian sociologists, a discussion of the issue whether it is worth concluding a contract, as well as acquisitions made by families concluded such contracts, are constantly discussed topics in Russian provincial cities with low income and low employment (→ RUSSIA: Parallel Cheryomushkin ). As a result, social frames of understanding of the war have changed. If a year ago, official narratives stimulated patriotic mobilization by references to the patterns of the Great Patriotic War, urging people to give a debt to their homeland and voluntarily help the front in the rear, today those who went to the war look more likely “soldiers of good luck”, who decided on a dangerous and highly paid fishery. Accordingly, the attitude towards human losses and injuries, which also now look not so much as a victim of public ministry, as obviously known costs of this fishing, is changing. The attitude towards the warriors should as a result rather resemble the attitude to the soldiers of the European powers of the era of colonial wars.

People and drones

In early April, the Ministry of Defense said that since the beginning of the year, more than 100 thousand new contractors had already gained. The statement was partly propaganda in nature, and most likely the real figure is lower. However, according to Financial Times , at the beginning of 2024, British military intelligence also evaluated the growth of contractors of 30–40 thousand people monthly. Not everyone agrees with these assessments, but if you take their lower border for the base, according to the results of the first half of the 2024th, about 180 thousand people should be gained. The goal of the Ministry of Defense, according to experts, is 300 thousand, which will create a critical advantage in manpower at the front, avoiding a new wave of mobilization.

The emergency increase in the size of payments from the beginning of the year and especially in May -June indicates that the pace of the set under previous conditions fell and did not manage to reach the target trajectory of the Ministry of Defense. At the same time, the current increase in payments and rates of the contract are not unbearable costs for the Russian economy and public finance. Given the fact that the amount of payments gradually grew over the past months, the total expenses for one -time payments from the beginning of the year can be estimated at about $ 800-850 million, and the cash content of newly -knitted contractors (based on the figures of 180 thousand) - about $ 1.4 billion in six months.

Despite the fact that the terms of the military contract, as shown above, are financially competitive (the salary is almost three times higher than the average, and the payment of half -year to annual average earnings), the degree of risk of losing life and health, which also affects its competitiveness, remains an important issue.

According to the BBC and Mediazones project , the conducting calculation of Russian manpower losses, confirmed the losses from the beginning of the war to January 2024 amounted to almost 40 thousand people, but most likely twice as much. This ratio is indicated by both the examination of military graves and the calculation of the approximate number of open hereditary cases. Thus, about 40 thousand Russian military personnel died in tentatively every year of the war. If during the year the Ministry of Defense gains 300 thousand contractors, despite the fact that at least 300 thousand military is already in the combat zone, and the total pace of the fraud will remain the same, then the dead will amount to about 7% of the total number of Russian military contingent.

This is a high level. However, in the conditions of an intensive offensive that the Russian army is trying to conduct, the current amounts of losses are most likely higher than on average in two years of war. Some information from the front also indicates this: the Russian army not only suffers high losses in connection with attempts to attack the enemy’s position, but also faced with a sharp increase in the number of drones that the Ukrainian army has and which create significant asymmetry in the losses of the parties (a bright story about the conditions of the Russian offensive is cited by the New Gazeta Europe). According to British military intelligence , in May, Russian losses could exceed 1,200 people a day.

If this trend is fixed and Ukraine will be able to compensate for the disruption in manpower due to the “unmanned military forces” , and the probability of death for new Russian contractors will significantly increase, the competitiveness of contracts will decrease and the new contract model will be at a dead end. But while the Russian authorities see in the current summer offensive the “window of opportunities” to build up the advantage in manpower, created as a delay in the supply of Western military assistance to Ukraine (→ RUSSIA: the defeat window ), and the contract of the competitive contract they found, and therefore continue the “contract race”.