New blood: How the Kremlin's aggressive ambitions are bringing Ukraine more allies worldwide

Hypothetically, India could expand the range of supplies: in particular, New Delhi plans to replace more than 2,000 BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles with American Stryker armored fighting vehicles. The Soviet-designed BMP-2 vehicles would be very useful to the AFU, especially in such quantities, although they are significantly inferior to the American Bradley armored fighting vehicles. Still, supplies from the arsenal of the Indian Army are unlikely to find their way directly to Ukraine due to the policies of current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is anxious to maintain good relations with Russia despite its partnership with China, India's other strategic rival.

Moreover, India still counts on Russian supplies of various weapons, including warships. But there have been disruptions to the supply of Russian weapons. In particular, Moscow failed to hand over a batch of S-400 SAM systems on time due to losses incurred by Russian air defense assets in the war with Ukraine.

Countries supplying arms to Ukraine risk the Kremlin's retaliation. One such precedent involves Ecuador, which planned to transfer Soviet helicopters and air defense systems to Ukraine via the U.S. in exchange for American weapons — until the Russian agricultural regulator banned the import of Ecuadorian bananas “for sanitary reasons.” Notably, concerns about the quality and cleanliness of Ecuador’s fruit immediately disappeared just as soon as the country refused to supply the weapons in question.

In a similar case, ammunition for Ukraine obtained under the Czech-led initiative has to be procured in the strictest secrecy in order to prevent Russia from disrupting transfers by pressuring potential suppliers.

However, some countries’ reluctance to help Ukraine is explained not by Russian influence or threats, but by their apprehension of the U.S. and the military-political bloc led by Washington. For example, Brazilian President Lula da Silva is known for his ambiguous statements about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Despite the diplomatic efforts of French President Emmanuel Macron, Lula refused to attend the peace summit organized by Ukraine in Switzerland this past June. Nevertheless, Brazil could offer Ukraine Super Tucano turboprop aircraft that would be efficient against Russian loitering munitions and reconnaissance drones — or at least allow the re-export of these aircraft.

In other words, the world still has considerable unused resources for military aid to Ukraine. Whether they will find their way into the hands of the AFU depends on the diplomatic efforts applied by Kyiv and its international partners, who should offer potential arms suppliers favorable conditions — including protection against possible Russian retaliation.