“The persecution of the Musa is bothering Lukashenko, he wants to participate in peace negotiations in Ukraine” - a polytanalist

On September 30, it became known that the Lithuanian government officially sent materials to the Office of the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (MUS) in the Hague regarding the crimes committed by Alexander Lukashenko against citizens of Belarus. The next day, the prosecutor Mus Karim Khan said that his management would “conduct a preliminary examination to consider the request within the jurisdiction of the Mus - in order to determine whether there are reasonable grounds for the start of the investigation”.

“Lithuania was the first state to appeal to the Mus in connection with the situation in Ukraine, and in the end the order of Putin was arrested. Now we ask the Mus to investigate the situation in Belarus, and we are waiting for the order of the arrest of Lukashenko, ”said the Minister of Justice of Lithuania Evelina Dobrovolskaya.

Lithuania, unlike Belarus, is a member of the Roman Statute. As stated in a statement by the Lithuanian Ministry of Justice, the crimes of the Belarusian regime against Belarusians were partially committed in Lithuania, which gives her reason for a request to the Hague. As explained at a press conference on appeal to the Mus, deputy head The United Transition Cabinet of Belarus Pavel Latushko, who fled from the repressions of the Belarusians found themselves in Lithuania, Poland and other countries - participants in the Roman Statute.

The collection of materials transferred by the Lithuanian authorities to the Mus was engaged in experts of the Anti -Crisis Management Association ( NA ). As the head of Science Pavel Latushko told The Insider, the collection work began almost a year and a half ago.

“In April 2023, the People’s Anti -Crisis Directorate began work on collecting, analyzing, documenting evidence of crimes against humanity, as well as determining the mechanisms by which it will be possible to achieve justice. In September 2023, for the first time with my colleagues from Ni, I met with the deputy Minister of Justice of Lithuania, we presented a report that was prepared with the assistance of our partner, the Lithuanian Center for Law and Democracy Justice Hub.

The Lithuanian side studied the issue, and also initiated an international examination on the possibilities of using the jurisdiction of the Mus to investigate crimes against humanity committed in Belarus: murder, torture, rape, violent disappearance, illegal imprisonment and other serious crimes. The country has adopted a whole policy aimed at repressions against the non -proper population. As a result of the created atmosphere of fear and terror, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians were forced to flee the country, having no real choice to stay. In fact, they became victims of deportation. According to the reports of the specialist of the Council of Europe for Belarus in 2023 and the Office of the Supreme Commissar of the Human Rights of the UN, about 300 thousand people were forced to fled from Belarus in 2024.

Now the office of the prosecutor of the Mus, having established sufficient reasons to believe that the crimes against humanity have been committed, may begin directly the investigation of this situation and further apply to the ward of preliminary proceedings with a request for the issuance of an arrest warrant if it is established that a specific person has committed crimes. ”

As the Belarusian political analyst Alexander Klakovsky told The Insider, the arrest of Alexander Lukashenko is practically impossible, but the issuance of the warrant may interfere with his political plans:

“The prospect of persecution by the Musa, of course, worries Lukashenko. Recently, he had a meeting in Minsk with the head of the so -called DPR Denis Pushilin, and during the conversation he complained that the “fugitive” (as he calls the opposition) wanted to hold him liable in the Hague and thus prevent him from negotiations in Ukraine. He publicly complained, which means that he is worried about this question.

Lukashenko is already thinking about the end of the war in Ukraine and wants to squeeze the negotiations at the negotiating table so that they will not forget about him, so that he does not lose. With Russia, a nuclear power, they will be considered one way or another, but Belarus may be overboard upon reaching any agreements. Therefore, from the point of view of practical policy, the hypothetical issuance of the order narrows the foreign policy capabilities of the regime in general and Lukashenko in particular.

Of course, the point is not that he will be pulled out tomorrow from the residence in the thrush and dragged to the Hague, this is impossible. In this sense, Lukashenko feels confident because he is under the protection of Moscow. In addition, he travels mainly to those countries where his brothers are sitting in mind, the same authoritarian rulers and dictators that, of course, will not surrender it. ”

According to Klaskovsky, the duration of the preliminary investigation of the MUS is not regulated and it can last a long time, and political factors are also affected by the decision.

“On the one hand, Musa is an independent organization, on the other hand, the political context still affects its work. Some believe that even Kyiv can inhibit the decision to issue a warrant for the arrest of Lukashenko, because the policy of the Ukrainian authorities is not to be anger and not to annoy the official Minsk once again so that it does not strengthen its assistance to Moscow in aggression against Ukraine. Perhaps in the West there are political players who do not want to put Putin and Lukashenko in a row so as not to connect Lukashenko with the Kremlin even more.

Now Lukashenko is trying to interest the West, throws a fishing rod for a possible dialogue. I mean the liberation of some political prisoners and a decrease in the pressure of illegal migrants on the Polish border. In his public speeches, Lukashenko made it clear that he could influence this process and regulate it. Like, let the West return to the constructive dialogue in this matter. Moreover, the Foreign Minister of Belarus, Maxim Ryzhenkov, announced that in November a conference on this topic with the participation of some European politicians will be held.

But if an order is received, then the desire to bring bridges with the west of official Minsk will be less and Lukashenko will only have to focus on Russia even more. This is a very bad process that can gradually lead to the loss of Belarusian independence. ”

If the arrest warrant is issued, this can indirectly improve the situation of political emigrants, Klimovsky noted:

“As for the position of Belarusian emigrants, I do not see how they can directly affect the issuance of the order to arrest Lukashenko. But perhaps this will indirectly help the headquarters of the Belarusian political emigration, the office of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the united transition office to fight for the rights of Belarusians, who were abroad for political reasons. If we are talking about legalization, the fight against discrimination, then this may be an argument: here, they say, the court admitted that there was a deportation, that is, forced movement. ”

The press secretary of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya Anna Krasulina told in an interview with The Insider that the office of the head of the Belarusian opposition is evaluating the chances of the positive decision of the Mus as high:

“In our opinion, the probability that the Mus will decide to investigate the crimes of the Lukashenko regime is quite high, given the seriousness and scale of the evidence presented. The case in the Mus is a long -term procedure, but the presence of a large number of evidence and facts about crimes increases the chances of issuing international orders. We also expect other countries to join this process.

The issuance of international arrest orders for the perpetrators will give a very strong signal for countries where Belarusians run from persecution, to treat their needs more serious and consider them as potential victims of crimes against humanity. ”

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