Nonstop “meat grinder assault”: Evaluating Russia's 365 day offensive around Avdiivka

For comparison, the maximum advance during the Russian attack in northern Kharkiv in May 2024 was 10 kilometers — before the front stagnated. Elsewhere, including the areas around Chasiv Yar, the Toretsk agglomeration, Robotyne, and Vuhledar, progress has been measured in mere kilometers or even hundreds of meters. Among the notable towns captured were Krasnohorivka (population 16,398 as of the 2001 census), Novohrodivka (17,473), and Vuhledar (17,518).

According to data from the pro-Russian OSINT resource LostArmour, since October 2023 the Russian army has come to occupy over 2,047.9 additional square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. At the same time, as of late autumn 2023, the area of the Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control was more than 11,000 square kilometers (43% of the region’s total area). Given the current pace of the Russian offensive, even the short-term goals of the “Special Military Operation” — namely, the capture of the “annexed” Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine — are unlikely to be achieved anytime soon.

Experts interviewed by The Insider agree with this assessment. In particular, Israeli military analyst David Handelman believes:

“The physical occupation of all four regions at this pace is a very long process, and even capturing the Donetsk region alone is a big task that will take time to 'chew through.' For now, the Russian leadership is focusing on slow advances and wearing down the enemy, which could eventually push Ukraine toward political concessions.”

Military expert Yan Matveyev shares a similar view:

“Even at this year's pace, it will take the Russian army many years to occupy all these territories. Just capturing the Donetsk region alone would take 2-3 years of fighting like this, at a minimum, unless the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) either deliberately retreat or lose the ability to resist.”

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko points out that the most combat-ready part of the Russian forces in Ukraine was concentrated in the operational zone near Avdiivka, yet even they only managed to advance 29 kilometers in a year:

“Given how bloody the fighting was for these 29 kilometers, how will they manage to secure the entire Donetsk region? Especially when taking into account the challenge of Kostiantynivka and the fact that they've been battering Chasiv Yar for a year now. It's not even Bakhmut or Avdiivka, it's Chasiv Yar. And yet, they've been unable to break through for a year. And that's without even mentioning the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, a colossal urban area that's been fortified since 2014.”

However, judging strictly by the statistics, the Russian offensive picked up speed again in August-September 2024, occupying 815 additional square kilometers — two-thirds of the total territory captured over the past ten months. Ukrainian military channels and AFU fighters speaking to the media point to several reasons for this acceleration: the infiltration tactics of small Russian infantry groups, Russia’s active use of drones (including to disrupt supplies and evacuations of the wounded), and a significant Russian manpower advantage.