Weekly Ukraine war summary: Russian forces break into Kupiansk, record increases in troop losses reported for Moscow, FPV drone downs Ka-52

The U.S. has announced that $7.1 billion worth of authorized funds remains to be distributed as military aid to Ukraine under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), along with $2.2 billion under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). All these funds are expected to be utilized by Jan. 20, 2025 — prior to the inauguration of Donald Trump. In the near term, 500 surface-to-air missiles for Patriot and NASAMS systems will be supplied. The Biden administration also plans to seek further military funding for Ukraine from Congress for 2025 and has lifted a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine to perform repairs and maintenance on U.S.-supplied weapons — including F-16 fighter jets and Patriot air defense systems.

On Nov. 14, the European Union approved €300 million in funding for joint arms procurement by its member states for the first time, with part of the supplies designated for Ukraine. In an interview with Ukraine's European Pravda, the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, pledged that 1.5 million artillery rounds will be supplied to Ukraine by the end of 2024. To date, 980,000 rounds have been delivered, although it took 21 months to reach this total — 9 months longer than the originally promised 12-month timeline set out in March 2023.

OSINT researcher Jompy presented updated estimates of Russian military stockpiles. Using satellite images of storage bases, he reported that stocks in key categories such as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and artillery systems are now below 50% of their pre-war levels, with only a small fraction believed to be in good operational condition. Nevertheless, another OSINT researcher, Just BeCause, noted that a critical shortage of Russian military equipment is unlikely to occur before mid-2025 or early 2026.

Meanwhile, Russia’s state-owned defense corporation Rostec announced the delivery of new batches of Su-35S and Su-57 jet fighters to the Russian Aerospace Forces. Russia’s air defense system supplies, however, appear to be strained, as a Tor-M2KM surface-to-air missile system originally intended to be shipped to Armenia was recently spotted operating in the Kursk Region. Russia’s tank stocks are also being replenished using Soviet-era props from the Mosfilm film studio, with the studio’s head Karen Shakhnazarov reporting to Vladimir Putin that it had donated 28 T-55 tanks and eight PT-76 tanks to the MoD last year. North Korea was also confirmed to have supplied military equipment (rather than simply ammunition) to its new ally for the first time — long-range 170-mm M1989 Koksan self-propelled cannons, similar to the Soviet-made 2S7 Pion, were observed on a railway convoy in Russia.

Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) reported that even primitive Russian decoy drones, such as the aforementioned “Parodiya” (“Parody”), are using foreign components sourced from China, the U.S., Switzerland, and Taiwan.

A recent investigation by The Insider revealed that advanced radio-technical equipment used for developing and producing electronic warfare (EW) systems is making its way into Russia through a network of companies based in Kazakhstan, with components originating from Germany, France, and the U.S.

Previous weekly summary (Nov. 2 to Nov. 8, 2024):

Weekly Ukraine war summary: Russian volunteers reported to last “two weeks to a month” at the front as Moscow mounts offensive on Kurakhove

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