Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: AFU face threat of encirclement in Kursk, Russia retreats near Pokrovsk, “layer cake” in Toretsk

Oko Hora ✙ News and Analytics released an infographic showing the number of guided bombs used by the Russian Aerospace Forces in February. The total number of bombings over the 28 days of February reached 3,463 (a 43% month-on-month increase). The daily average rose to 124 bombs (a 55% increase).

For its part, the Russian Defense Ministry reported the destruction of 203 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones over Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. The following key targets were hit:

• The FSB Border Guard office in Belaya Berezka, Bryansk Region was struck by two guided bombs on Feb. 27, killing one serviceman and injuring at least 14 border guards and soldiers.
• The “Russkaya” station of the “Turkish Stream” gas pipeline in Krasnodar Krai on the night of Feb. 28.
• The Bashneft oil refinery in Ufa on the night of March 3 (damaging the L-24-7 unit).
• The Syzran oil refinery (damaging the AVT-6 primary refining unit) and the “Kuibyshev-Lysychansk” pipeline station in the Rostov Region on the night of March 4.
• A Russian military training ground in the occupied Kherson Region of Ukraine (details on casualties remain undisclosed).

According to data collated by volunteers from the Conflict Intelligence Team (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), between 8:00 PM on Feb. 27 and 8:00 PM on March 6, at least 44 civilians were killed and another 244 injured due to strikes on civilian infrastructure on both sides of the front. In February alone, at least 157 civilians were killed and 926 wounded.

Losses

The Russian Ministry of Defense has recorded over 50,000 cases of desertion and unauthorized abandonment of military units in 2024. The data was cited in a classified report, which was handed over to the Ukrainian project InformNapalm by hackers. The highest number of deserters was observed in the Southern Military District, where mobilized soldiers from the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk “people's republics” (“LPR” and “DPR”) are serving.

On Feb. 28, 2025, close to 150 Russian servicemen who refused to fight in Ukraine for various reasons — many of whom were wounded and using crutches — were forcibly removed (1, 2, 3, 4) from the military commandant’s office in the town of Chebarkul in Russia’s Chelyabinsk Region. They were transported to a tent camp 20 km from Koltsovo Airport in Yekaterinburg, where they refused to board a plane, staging a “mutiny.” Later, about 20 armed military police officers tricked them into boarding the aircraft. Upon arrival in Rostov-on-Don, they were left without food or water and then loaded onto buses and transported to Luhansk in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

The 2nd Western District Military Court has received cases against 115 Ukrainian servicemen captured in the Kursk Region, all of whom have been accused of terrorism. 11 foreign fighters have also been charged with “mercenarism,” according to a report by the independent exiled Russian publication Mediazona. At least 30 individuals have already been sentenced to prison terms ranging from 15 to 17 years.

Weapons and military vehicles

This week, Donald Trump paused U.S. military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine. Trump’s special envoy, Keith Kellogg, described the move as part of a “push” for Kyiv to “engage in diplomatic activities.” The U.S. government has also restricted Ukrainian users' access to the G-EGD (Global Enhanced Geospatial Intelligence Delivery) program on the Maxar platform (Ukraine is still able to purchase commercial satellite imagery).

A report by The Insider indicated that Ukraine’s European allies could theoretically continue to provide substantial amounts of support to Kyiv even if U.S. aid were completely cut off. However, success depends on solving key challenges: political will among European leaders, significant increases in defense spending, and the inability to fully replace certain types of American weaponry — particularly long-range missiles and air defense systems (for example, stocks of Patriot interceptor missiles could run out within weeks).

As for intelligence sharing, France has publicly confirmed that it will offer its intelligence capabilities to Ukraine, and confidential sources cited by The Guardian indicate that the United Kingdom intends to do the same. Meanwhile, the European Commission is exploring alternatives to ensure Ukraine’s access to satellite communication in the event the AFU’s access to Starlink is cut off.

Over the past week, Ukraine’s front-line “craftsmen” showcased a new process for adapting the OZM-72 anti-personnel mine for remote use.

Highlights among Russia’s adaptations included a heavy armored personnel carrier (APC) built on a T-80 tank chassis, reinforced with Kontakt-1 dynamic armor, along with a modified buggy based on a Lada Oka, wrapped in a net similar to those used in futsal (5-on-5 soccer played on a basketball court).