Guns speak louder than words: How deep is Ukraine’s dependence on U.S. military aid?

The largest share of aid comes through PDA, which allows for the direct transfer of weapons, vehicles, and ammunition from U.S. stockpiles. The total announced PDA packages amount to $34 billion, while an additional $45.8 billion has been allocated to replace transferred equipment. Much of what Ukraine receives via PDA is older equipment, which the U.S. sends to Kyiv before replenishing its own stockpiles with newer, more expensive kit. This system not only aids Ukraine but also modernizes the U.S. arsenal. According to U.S. officials, 90% of PDA-announced supplies have already been delivered. Full implementation of the deliveries — mainly for armored vehicles — was projected to be completed by August 2025.

The second-largest expense under OAR does not directly support Ukraine's military operations. Instead, $44.8 billion has been allocated to the European Deterrence Initiative (EDI) and U.S. European Command for troop deployments, logistics, and maintaining military infrastructure in Eastern Europe.

Ranked third in terms of total U.S. aid to Ukraine are new weapons and ammunition supplies under contracts signed with defense industry manufacturers through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). The total value of announced USAI packages stands at $33.2 billion. However, deliveries under USAI take significantly longer than those made through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). Based on current projections, the execution of USAI contracts — at a monthly delivery rate ranging from $700 million to $1.1 billion — is expected to continue until 2028.

$6.7 billion has also been allocated through the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program. The majority of these funds have been used to replenish the stockpiles of other allied countries after they supplied military equipment and armaments to Kyiv. A portion has also covered Ukraine’s urgent military needs, but as of late 2024, only $1.8 billion of the total FMF allocation had actually been spent.

In addition, certain military goods and related services are procured by the Ukrainian government on commercial terms through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. Contracts under this mechanism notably include maintenance services for F-16 fighter jets, the supply of spare parts for previously delivered U.S. weapon systems, and the production and delivery of three HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), financed by Germany.

In total, the allocated and contracted U.S. funds for Ukraine do not exceed $140.5 billion. Meanwhile, the announced deliveries of military equipment and ammunition are estimated at $72 billion, whereas the actual weapons, military hardware, and munitions received by Ukraine amount to just over $50 billion worth.