“Iran could quickly enrich uranium up to 90% and create nuclear weapons. There was a supply of unused centrifuges " - an expert on nuclear security • The Insider • RIMA — Russian Independent Media Archive
As a result of air strikes, which the Israeli Air Force is applied through the territory of Iran from June 13, the key objects of the Iranian nuclear program were damaged. On the eve of the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossy said that all 15 thousand centrifugs operating at an underground plant to enrich Uranus in Natanze are most likely destroyed or seriously damaged. According to the agency, four key buildings at a nuclear facility in Isfahan are also damaged.
Fordo underground factory, where Uranus is enriched, was also subjected to impacts from Israel. However, the Magate has no data yet that he was caused any damage.
According to Dmitry Karokhin, an expert on nuclear security , by the time Israel began his operation in an interview with The Insider, Iran had capacities that allowed to quickly get uranium, enriched to 90%, and create nuclear weapons.
“Before the Israeli attack, there was a wide range of assessments of the status of the Iranian nuclear program: it was believed that Iran needed from several months (or, perhaps, even several weeks) to two years to create nuclear weapons. We are talking about the time that is necessary to obtain the right amount of material, and to collect everything - roughly speaking, put this material in a bomb.
According to the assessment on the basis of the last Magate report of May 31, Iran needed from several days to several weeks to get the amount of enriched uranium sufficient for several bombs. This assessment is based on data on Iran by enrichment. But it is important to understand that for enrichment, Uranus is converted into a gaseous form and, accordingly, the final product based on the results of enrichment is also gas. In order for the enriched uranium to be used in nuclear weapons, it must be translated into a solid metal shape. This is done in special plants on the conversion of uranium. There were reports that Israel was also attacked by the Uranus conversion plant in Isfahan. If this plant is disabled, then this creates serious problems Iran. I can’t say if Iran has another such plant.
If we talk about the reserves of enriched uranium in a gaseous form, they are at objects in Natanze and Fordo. We have no evidence that Uranus was enriched there above 60%. There are evidence that they enrich up to 60%. And there is an idea of the amount of uranium enriched to 60%. And ideally they need to be brought to 90%.
We know that about 80% of centrifuges, which were at the disposal of Iran, participated in the enrichment of Uranus. The rest were installed, but did not work. And those several hundred kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, which were in the reserve of Iran, were produced by these 80% of centrifugs that were installed and worked. Accordingly, it can be assumed that Iran had capacities with the help of which they could quickly bring enrichment to 90%. Plus, according to the IAEA, there were still some centrifuges ready for installation, but not yet installed.
If there were some evidence that Iran launched these remaining 20% or began to take steps to install not yet installed centrifuges, this could serve as a certificate of readiness to move on the next step. This is the data that we had, as of the start of the Israeli attack.
It is theoretically possible to create a bomb in a uranium enriched up to 60%. But, firstly, this may not be available to Iran, it can be more advanced in technical terms of the country: the USA or Russia. Secondly, this explosive device will not be compact enough so that it can be installed on the rocket. It will be a large bomb that can be immersed on a boat or truck and try to take somewhere, but this is not such a dangerous weapon as a rocket with a nuclear warhead.
In general, if you look at the dynamics of the development of Iran’s nuclear program, they have an opportunity to make some kind of nuclear explosive device for a long time. I am afraid that at some point they could understand that now they can create such a mediocre atomic bomb. She will not be very good, but she will be able to explode and cause any damage. They can postpone the “assembly kit” in order to be able to collect this average atomic bomb at any time, and continue to improve further.
At the next stage, the “kit” turns out even better, and we also put it aside. I have fears that the Iranians can already lie somewhere several of these “sets”, from which you can quickly assemble something not very good, but working. ”
According to the expert, the murder of nuclear scientists who worked on Iran’s nuclear program will throw it back, but will not stop it.
“The murder of scientists who worked on the nuclear program causes her serious damage, but I would not say that it was irreparable. If Israel destroyed the entire top, then there are no more people who saw the overall picture, had great experience and organizational talent, and this, of course, throws Iran back. But in general, if their personnel management and training system was organized well, then soon the killed scientists will replace new ones who also have the necessary knowledge and which after some time will be able to lead the process. ”
