Summer offensive: 160 thousand troops under the Ukrainian border

Ukraine believes that the Kremlin is using the 50-day pause announced by the US President before possible new sanctions

Ukrainian authorities believe that Russia plans to use the 50-day pause announced by US President Donald Trump before the possible introduction of new sanctions to increase the intensity of military operations. According to CNN, some 160,000 Russian troops are already massed along the front line, and a major summer offensive is expected in the coming days or weeks.

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Over the past two weeks, Russia has made tactical gains in the areas of Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka and Kupyansk, where Ukrainian positions could be surrounded.

Putin is confident in weakening Ukrainian defense

According to The New York Times sources, Vladimir Putin believes that Ukrainian defenses could collapse within months. Therefore, the Kremlin excludes the possibility of ending the war without serious concessions from Kiev, notes the American Institute for the Study of War.

According to Chatham House analyst Kier Giles, the delay in imposing sanctions by the United States contributes to Moscow's diplomatic and military strategy. Expert John Lough of the New Eurasian Strategies Center noted that the offensive has likely already been going on for several months and the Russians are “clearly increasing pressure on the ground and in the air.”

Intelligence errors and false reports: the Ukrainian army is losing the initiative

According to the Ukrainian monitoring project DeepState, which tracks information on the front, Russian forces suffered significant losses but improved their position in key areas. DeepState warns that the Ukrainian command is receiving distorted information from the front.

“A significant part of the enemy’s successes is explained by lies in reports from the field about the real state of affairs. This is a serious problem that can lead to catastrophic consequences,” says a publication on the project’s telegram channel.

Previously, “Layout” talked about how realistic it is for Kiev and Moscow to achieve peace in the near future. For example, the International Monetary Fund's base case scenario suggests that fighting could end before the end of 2025, "although risks remain exceptionally high." At the same time, the Financial Times newspaper proposed such a scenario at the end of 2024.

Photo: Ukrainian soldiers fire an artillery gun on the Zaporozhye front. Anadolu Agency via Reuters Connect

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