Is Israel isolated?

Where has the war brought Israel?

The October 7 tragedy in Israel marks two years, but its consequences are becoming more severe. The remaining hostages are still in captivity, Gaza has been reduced to ruins, Hamas has not been destroyed. Israel's two-year operation in Gaza has led to its international isolation, anti-Israel and anti-Semitic sentiment is growing in the world, and more and more countries are recognizing the Palestinian state. Where has this war led Israel, and is there a way out of the impasse?

How does Israel and the world’s attitude towards it change during war? Guests of the "Archaeology" program: Arabist Ksenia Svetlova , orientalist Ruslan Suleymanov , historian and writer Evgeny Dobrenko

Did Netanyahu fall into the trap Hamas set for him on October 7? Was such a scenario planned?

Ksenia Svetlova : Apparently, the leaders of Hamas really believed that they could conquer part of Israel, and they distributed the positions of who would rule the governorate to that extent. Netanyahu, it seems, made all possible mistakes, both political and military, after this terrible tragedy, after the start of the most just war. This is a war that was not provoked by Israel. It was a defensive war, for the liberation of people, for the destruction of the leaders of terror, but it became political. Two years later, we are dealing with a political war, this is clearly visible both from outside and inside Israel. Not everyone, but a significant part of the population, which has continued to go out to protests for two years now, and now not only demand the release of the hostages, but also an end to the political war, which is leading us absolutely nowhere, leading us straight to hell.

Sergei Medvedev : Was there a non-military way to solve the problem, or was the military intervention in Gaza predetermined?

Ksenia Svetlova : I don’t believe that there was any non-military solution to this problem. Hamas allegedly offered something in the first days of the war: they say, let’s give up the invasion, we will free all the hostages. This organization is cynical, it knows Israel and Israeli leaders quite well, so I absolutely do not believe that they were going to release anyone immediately and free of charge.

Moreover, Hamas, unfortunately, during the reign of Netanyahu, from a second-rate and low-power terrorist organization, which it was somewhere before 2015-2016, turned Gaza into a state of terror with unprecedented capabilities in the underground, tunnel infrastructure. I don’t think it can be compared with anything else in the world. And there was no way to leave it all as it was. There is a consensus in Israel that this war was necessary, and indeed justified. We saw how one after another the leaders of the Western world came to Israel at the beginning of the war. There was no criticism of the war even from Israel’s Arab partners, who understood perfectly well that it was impossible to continue living with a neighbor like the strengthened Hamas, which intended to occupy parts of a sovereign state.

There was no criticism of the war

Everything went wrong after a few months of the war, when proposals began to be made, both Western, from the Biden administration, and Arab, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other countries came up with initiatives. And it became clear that Israel is not interested in them. The political leadership of Israel rejected any plans for a settlement and any talk about what would happen in Gaza the day after the war, what the vision of a settlement would be. But then the American leadership changed, and the far right flank in Israel received such a “wind at its back”, a greeting, ideas about a transfer, about a “Riviera in Gaza” began to be heard. And even relatively moderate opposition leaders in Israel (not anymore, of course) began to seriously consider this idea. Why not, where will we send them, maybe to Somalia, or maybe to the moon? Although it was clear that this was a most dangerous turn, which, unfortunately, prolonged the war.

Sergei Medvedev : Speaking about the political war in Israel: is there a war party that is ready to carry things through and lead to the complete annexation of Gaza?

Ksenia Svetlova : This is Netanyahu and his conservative coalition, and possibly displaced people . There are different people there, they are all loyalists, they 100% support the Prime Minister and any of his ideas. The people who are today pushing Israel to the brink of the abyss are openly proud of their genocidal ideas and say that “if we are accused of genocide, let’s do it already, just in case.” And those who talk about the annexation of not only Gaza, but also the West Bank , and those who, in the rough language of the poster, “drown” for the transfer, that is, the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from these territories. And the Prime Minister is accused of crimes and is in the midst of a criminal trial , that is, “think about what it will be like for you without us,” “you won’t have such excuses,” “why waste time,” and so on. At one time, another right-wing minister, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir , could not even think about these parties being part of his coalition.

Obviously they are satisfied with eternal war

Netanyahu literally sculpted them, like Frankenstein, and helped them pass the electoral barrier, so that they picked up the crumbs of the most radical, irreconcilable, most fascist elements of Israel, and with the help of these people he created his coalition. He relies on them, they put pressure on him, and they are interested in reviving the settlement in Gaza, expanding the existing settlement in the West Bank. I don’t know what final victory means in their words, because they don’t explain what exactly it means, what it means to “get rid of the last Hamas fighter.” Is it to kill everyone, throw everyone into the sea? These formulations were applied to Jews, which was, naturally, unacceptable. But they are clearly content with eternal war. It creates a suitable background so that the world does not talk about other things that are happening at the same time, about violations in the West Bank, about attacks on people, attempts to drive them from their lands, because everyone is busy with Gaza, there is not enough time for the rest.

Sergei Medvedev : Israel remains a democratic state, but at the same time we see trends in the usurpation of the idea of ​​war by the authorities. Most of Israeli society protests against the war. What tools are there for the anti-war movement?

Ksenia Svetlova : The rules of the game are valid as long as all parties believe in them. A democratic system will not work if a significant portion of the people in power do not believe in it. There must be some kind of restraining mechanisms. Now the next meeting has taken place in the High Court of Justice in Israel, several human rights organizations have filed a lawsuit that Netanyahu refuses to assemble a state commission of inquiry that will study the circumstances of the October 7 massacre and the involvement of his government in what happened. For two years he has not given the green light to the commission’s actions.

There are specific ministers

The representative of the state during this hearing said that the state has no influence on the course of the war, that the government is in no way responsible for the fact that the war continues. Apparently, it was decided so in heaven. But there are specific ministers who say that the war must continue until complete victory. “We won’t tell you what complete victory is, but we will continue to send soldiers to the battlefield,” where they will again clear the same areas of Gaza from terrorists. Terrorists will return there, and all this ad infinitum. That's why there are protest demonstrations. Not as numerous as at the beginning, people were tired. These are years of protest, a little over a year of protests before the war against the legal coup, and already two years of demonstrations for the release of hostages. This is pressure on the Israeli government, which in the first weeks of the war was reluctant to include the release of hostages among its main goals. The elimination of Hamas was number one there. This is very cynical on the part of the Prime Minister, who nurtured Hamas with his own hands and for many years transferred it dollar tranches from Qatar. Hamas has become a formidable enemy. But some people always knew this, and Netanyahu discovered it only on the morning of October 7.

After the war diplomacy begins

Not only representatives of the center-left camp are taking part in the protest demonstrations, but more and more people who once belonged to the ruling elite of right-wing parties such as Likud. Former Justice Minister Dan Meridor recently attended a conference in Toronto, where a right-wing Likud party leader called for an end to the war, the release of hostages and the involvement of the Palestinian Authority and Arab countries to create an alternative government in Gaza. This is what Chief of the General Staff Eyal Zamir spoke about the other day, who repeated the truism: after the war, diplomacy begins. Continuing the war by other means is diplomacy. And without this continuation, you can bomb, liquidate, and clean up as much as you want.

Sergei Medvedev : Who and what can stop this war? Could point 21 of Trump's plan affect the situation?

Ksenia Svetlova : I doubt that a large-scale plan can be adopted overnight by anyone, Netanyahu or any other prime ministers. This is not just a plan to resolve the war in Gaza. This is a plan to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Can you imagine this? That is, now the car is traveling at a speed of 140 kilometers per hour, suddenly we stop it. Some points of this plan may be adopted if Trump puts enough pressure on Netanyahu. Israel's Arab partners, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Jordan, other Arab countries, Saudi Arabia, which stands behind them, all supported Trump's plan, not because it is ideal, but because it offers an alternative.

Nothing will happen on its own

First of all, ending the war, returning the hostages and starting the process around the Gaza Strip. This is an unprecedented thing. The Arabs still said: you figure it out yourself, Palestinians and Israelis. Now, for the first time, they understand that nothing will happen, it will continue like this forever, and it will only get worse for everyone. They are ready to send their troops there, observers, to observe how deradicalization occurs, a process that must certainly take place, because for almost 20 years a terrorist group has ruled in Gaza. Israel should not and cannot lead all of this. The involvement of these countries, the involvement of Trump, or the administration that comes after him, is necessary to begin the first process now. We need to focus on ending the war.

Sergei Medvedev : Now there is a “parade of recognition” of Palestine. Does it matter? Western leaders do this for the sake of their electorate, but does this change anything in the international situation?

Ruslan Suleymanov : This doesn’t change anything significantly. These recognitions lead to an even tougher offensive policy by individual representatives of the ruling coalition in Israel, the Netanyahu Cabinet, and those who dream of annexing both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to Israel. And in response to these admissions, figures such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich emphasize that there has not been and will not be Palestinian independence. Settlement policy will continue. The more and the more often you recognize Palestine, the faster we will complete settlement construction.

This administration is unpopular among Palestinians

The Palestinians also cannot be said to feel any changes. The Palestinian National Authority, represented by the elderly Mahmoud Abbas, who turns 90 this year, has not been in control of the situation for a long time. There are huge economic problems there. This administration is unpopular among the Palestinians, so it's unlikely to make a difference now. In the long term, I think this is fraught with even greater pressure on Israel, the possible exclusion of Israel from some sporting, cultural events, and so on.

Sergei Medvedev : From the point of view of Palestine: does such an entity exist now? With whom to negotiate? On the one hand, there is a terrorist state in Gaza. On the other hand, there is a failed state in the West Bank, represented by the elderly Abbas. With whom to build a new statehood? Is there a third force? Are there people ready to take power if the situation develops positively?

Ruslan Suleymanov : This is a big problem for the Palestinians themselves, where there is a huge demand for new politicians, for a new government, because there have been no elections in the Palestinian territories since 2006. I mean the Palestinian parliamentary and presidential elections. Elections were held in 2005, when Abbas was elected to a four-year term and has remained in power for 20 years.

In this situation, the Palestinians themselves have already despaired of their politicians. But this is also a problem for the international community. If before October 7, 2023, some negotiations were held with the participation of the Israeli government, with the participation of the Palestinian National Authority, then after October 7 there are no negotiations. Netanyahu flatly refuses to negotiate with Abbas, who did not condemn the Hamas aggression on October 7, 2023. From Israel's point of view, there is no one to talk to. But we need to talk, because there is no escape for millions of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. There are politicians in exile, there are Palestinian leaders in the United Arab Emirates who enjoy a certain popularity. But they need international support. And much will depend on who Trump attracts from the Palestinian side, if he even has such plans; the United Nations if it involves Palestinian participation in the governance of Gaza. Some inter-Palestinian meetings were also held in Moscow in February last year, and in China last year some declarations were signed on the creation of a coalition government, the so-called government of technocrats. But for now it remains on paper.

Sergei Medvedev : Hamas, based on the results of this two-year operation, two years after October 7, how can you assess its position?

Ruslan Suleymanov : Two years later, Hamas is more popular than it has ever been. He became simply the leader and hope of the Arab street, the Muslim street. Many applaud and consider Hamas to be a real fighter against Israel, who managed to deal a very painful blow to Israel, perhaps in the entire history of the existence of the State of Israel. Hamas, despite the huge problems in the Gaza Strip, the loss of control over the Palestinian enclave, and the loss of almost its entire leadership, is extremely popular among Muslims around the world.

Hamas is more popular than it has ever been

The last elections in the Palestinian territories were held in January 2006, which, in fact, were won by Hamas. Since 2006, a whole generation has grown up that has not known any other government. Hamas takes advantage of the fact that a huge number of residents of the enclave are losing their homes, losing loved ones, they have no choice in this life but to take up arms and fight with Israel. Former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted this at his last press conference in January. He said that Hamas, after October 7, 2023, managed to expand its ranks.

Sergei Medvedev : A painful question that I ask my Israeli interlocutors: did the October 7 plan work? Now, two years later, can we say that Hamas has it all figured out?

Ruslan Suleymanov : Not exactly. The main initiator of this terrorist attack, Yahya Sinwar , hoped that the entire so-called “axis of resistance,” a chain of regimes loyal to Iran and groups in the Middle East, would join Hamas, and this would be a general war against Israel. But nothing of the kind happened. Yes, there have been and continue to be local clashes, local wars, one might say. But they continue for several days, several weeks, with the participation of Hezbollah, with the participation of Iran, with the participation of the Houthis. But it did not become a large-scale war with the creation of a coalition against Israel. Hamas is still fighting this war alone.

Evgeniy Dobrenko, a professor at the University of Venice, published an essay on Radio Liberty entitled "Farewell, Israel?" , about the situation in which the country finds itself, and European and world anti-Semitism. Why was this title chosen?

Evgeniy Dobrenko : An analogy and comparison with classic bullying in a school class, when a Jew is bullied, is appropriate here. A well-known situation in the Soviet and post-Soviet schools. This is classic bullying. Yesterday only poor students took part in this persecution, but today excellent students joined them. And for now, the bullied student is being protected by a big red-haired teacher with a pointer, but he himself is near retirement age and is about to transfer the case to another teacher, which does not bode well for Israel.

Sergei Medvedev : Immediately after October 7, we did not see such a wave of anti-Semitism. Isn't this persecution a response to Israel's actions, to Israel's war for two years?

Evgeniy Dobrenko : Israel's position as an outcast is much more consistent with the history of the Jewish people as a global outcast than the fact of its acceptance as part of the family of nations, the international community. In general, this has always been the case, except for the last decades. It is not clear why it should change. For 30 years of my life I worked at universities in America, in England, now in Italy, and I witnessed how this grew.

Sergei Medvedev : Are you saying that there was anti-Semitism on campus 30 years ago? Я учился в Колумбийском университете в 1990-е, не припомню никаких следов антисемитизма.

Евгений Добренко : Нет, это развивающаяся вещь, это не происходит в один день. Протест становился всё радикальнее, расширялся и расширялся. Ещё 10 лет назад лозунги типа "Свободная Палестина от реки до моря" были невозможны. Если бы кто-то выступил с таким лозунгом, откровенно геноцидальным, потому что он отрицает право Израиля на существование, его бы признали маргиналом. Сегодня это мейнстрим, нормально говорить это. Если бы 10 лет назад мне кто-нибудь мог сказать, что человек, который призывает к интифаде, станет мэром Нью-Йорка , я бы не поверил. Сегодня это почти свершившийся факт. Трудно видеть какие-то вещи, которые происходят на протяжении очень долгого периода. Всё общество Запада сдвинулось влево. Некоторые вещи вчера были мейнстримными, а сегодня вам скажут, что это фашизм.

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