Promised Danish crackdown on Russia’s “shadow fleet” means data gathering for sanctions, maritime analyst explains

Danish authorities announced yesterday that they intend to tighten environmental oversight of oil tankers in the port of Skagen, through which thousands of vessels pass annually en route from the Baltic Sea to the Atlantic. The Danish government says the move is needed to counter the so-called “shadow fleet” transporting Russian oil. In February, Denmark’s maritime authority had already pledged stricter inspections of oil tankers transiting Danish waters.

In an interview with The Insider, Starboard Maritime Intelligence analyst Mark Douglas said that tougher controls will allow Denmark to collect more evidence of violations in order to put vessels on sanctions lists. However, the measures would not lead to tankers being stopped, meaning the move will make little “immediate difference” on Moscow’s oil trade:

“From everything I've seen, Denmark is just going to be more closely monitoring these tankers. Over 50 false flagged tankers have been through the Danish Straits since the EU ministers announced stricter controls on those tankers in June, so I don't think this announcement will see any tankers being stopped.

What seems more likely, and what I think other oversight measures have done, is provide more information to enable sanctioning on tankers and also the insurance companies that enable them.

No EU sanctioned tankers are allowed to stop at Danish ports, so the impact on those tankers is zero — they are managing to operate without Danish ports already. Maybe Denmark could ban tankers loaded in Russia from their ports, but some of those tankers (mostly Greek owned) are operating legitimately under the price cap, and I think in general it's unlikely that Denmark would ban vessels without EU sanctions to back them.

So I think these new measures are not significantly different from what's in place. If they result in more tankers being sanctioned, that should help to make the oil trade harder, but it seems unlikely that they will have an immediate difference on the trade.”

Currently, more than 340 ships have been designated in the EU sanctions list due to their participation in the illicit transport of Russian oil and petroleum products. To date, only two instances are publicly known in which a tanker associated with the shadow fleet was detained by European authorities — and both involved the same vessel. In April, Estonian authorities detained the Kiwala, which was flying the flag of Djibouti but was not registered in that country, in violation of maritime law.

The tanker was later released, then changed its name and flag. In early October, that same ship — now called Boracay and flagged in Benin — was detained in the English Channel by French authorities. The crew and captain were arrested for defying orders from a French naval vessel and failing to present proof of their own vessel’s nationality. However, they were soon released on the condition that the captain appear in court in February, and the tanker resumed its voyage.