Hamas appears more like disparate terrorist cells than an army. Acting independently, they can renounce the world - orientalist

Hamas has always maintained that it does not intend to disarm completely, but has now become more fragmented, which increases the risk of possible provocations. Against this background, the American side’s fears that hostilities in Israel could resume seem entirely justified. The New York Times wrote about this the day before, and on Tuesday, October 21, US Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to arrive in Israel.

In particular, in a conversation with The Insider , orientalist Marianna Belenkaya gives this assessment of the current state of the group:

“Even before the ceasefire [the regime came into force], many experts - both in the Israeli intelligence services and Arab experts - said that the Hamas group was fragmented. If earlier it was more like an army, now it is separate terrorist cells , which, of course, can act independently. Plus, there was also talk about the fact that many [among the militants] may refuse to obey the ceasefire decision and continue to fight.”

Given this, there may be more incidents like last week's attack on Israeli soldiers in the Rafah area in the southern Gaza Strip, the expert said. Hamas is also not going to completely disarm:

“At least [Hamas stated that] it was not going to give up its personal weapons. If he surrenders anything, it will be heavy weapons. Personal weapons - and this can include any shells, sniper rifles, and so on - may remain with Hamas. But in any case, there is no talk yet of even the surrender of heavy weapons.”

As Belenkaya notes, inside the group they understand that in the event of disarmament, subject to pressure from other terrorist cells in the Gaza Strip, the fate of Hamas will become disastrous.

Against this background, the United States seriously fears that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may withdraw from the peace agreement. On Sunday, October 19, the IDF reported that its soldiers were attacked by militants in the Rafah area. As a result, two people died. Hamas at the same time denied any involvement in the attack, saying that the group “fully adheres to all agreements, including the ceasefire in all areas of the Gaza Strip.” Since the announcement of the signing of a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas, there have been violations of the truce, but this is the first incident that resulted in the death of Israeli soldiers.

In the Donald Trump administration, as the NYT wrote citing sources, there are fears that Netanyahu may withdraw from the deal. After the attack on the Israeli military, the latter ordered “to carry out powerful strikes against terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip.” According to one of the publication's interlocutors, Trump believes that Hamas leaders are ready to continue negotiations, and that fringe elements of the group are behind the attack on Israeli soldiers.

Hamas representatives claimed in their statement that contact with the militants remaining in Rafah was lost in March and the group’s leadership knew nothing about their activities. Trump tends to agree, speaking to reporters and blaming the attack on "insurgents within the group," noting that he believes Hamas' leadership was not involved.

“We agreed with Hamas that they will behave very well. And if not, then we will go and destroy them if we have to. They will be destroyed, and they know it,” Trump said.

On Tuesday, October 21, US Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to arrive in Israel. According to The Times of Israel, citing sources, Vance plans to visit the headquarters of the emerging international group that will monitor the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Vance's task, as the NYT notes, is to try to keep Netanyahu from resuming a full-scale offensive against Hamas.