Deeper, more often, more powerful! Ukrainian DeepStrike strategy threatens serious fuel shortages in Russia by 2026

“The situation is absolutely under control,” Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak calmly repeats in conversations with journalists, assuring that supply and demand in the country are balanced, and problems in certain regions are being resolved manually. In particular, the government completely banned the export of gasoline until the end of the year. Diesel fuel is traditionally produced twice as much as the domestic market needs, so only non-producers are prohibited from exporting it.

Gazprom Neft has postponed scheduled repairs at the Omsk Oil Refinery due to the fuel crisis. The Ministry of Energy asked all oil workers to do the same. “Together with them, we adjusted the refinery’s planned repair program so that planned repairs do not fall during the period of peak demand for gasoline. We are also working manually with Russian Railways so that tanks with gasoline from production regions quickly move to regions of maximum demand for gasoline,” said Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev.

In addition, Novak proposed to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to allow a previously banned gasoline additive, monomethylaniline (MMA), for six months. “Despite the measures taken to protect fuel and energy facilities, there are risks of deterioration in the situation with the supply of petroleum products to the domestic market,” writes Novak.

Russia traditionally produces more fuel than is consumed on the domestic market. About half of it is usually exported (mainly diesel and fuel oil). Therefore, now, on average, the gasoline produced throughout the country can be enough for everyone; the problem is to deliver it on time.

Estimates of exactly how much the recycling market has lost due to the attacks in recent months vary widely. At the end of September, 38% of primary oil refining capacity in Russia was idle - about 338 thousand tons per day, according to estimates by the Siala agency. Moreover, 70% of stops are related to attacks by Ukrainian drones. But this unprecedentedly high level raises doubts among experts. Apparently, the figure appeared by adding up the nominal capacities of all refineries that were attacked since August 1, 2025, concludes Sergei Vakulenko, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center. “Is it right to think so? To get an estimate from above, yes, this is possible,” he argues.

That is, if all the attacks were successful and the damage caused to the plants completely knocked them out of action, then this would be no more than 38% of all processing in Russia. “To get a more realistic figure, you need to at least answer two questions and make adjustments for them. First, is it possible to assume that all attacks damage the entire plant, so much so that the plant completely stops operations and the entire capacity of the plant is subtracted from the available capacity? Secondly, is it true that at least some of the damage has not been repaired in the intervening time, and the greasy plant is still standing?” - Vakulenko continues. In his opinion, the plants were partially damaged and some were repaired, so that some part of the retired capacity returned to operation.

The estimate from JPMorgan Chase & Co , as reported by Bloomberg, looks more realistic: the productivity of Russian refineries has fallen below 5 million barrels per day - that is, by about 500 thousand barrels per day, or 10%. According to Reuters calculations, Russian refining capacity fell by 17%, or 1.1 million barrels per day. 10–17% does not sound as tragic as 38%, but the dynamics are important here: attacks on refineries continue and destroy capacity faster than they can be restored, so the percentage will grow.

The consequences of attacks on refineries will be felt both inside Russia and abroad - Mongolia may begin to purchase gasoline from China. Private gas stations that are not part of the group of large oil producers are already suffering. Profitability is negative, a number of independent gas stations are already closing, the Russian Fuel Union complains . The shipment of gasoline takes up to two months; the export ban does not help.