The wheels are coming off: Russia’s rail freight collapse exposes a deeper industrial crisis

Traditionally, more than three-quarters of Russian Railways’ freight loading comes from the “big six” categories: coal, oil and petroleum products, iron and manganese ore, construction materials, fertilizers, and ferrous metals. In 2025, only one of these — fertilizers — showed modest growth. Three hree saw moderate declines, while two (construction materials and ferrous metals) suffered a major collapse.

Overall, out of 15 freight categories tracked by Russian Railways, only two show positive dynamics this year: fertilizers, and nonferrous ore and sulfur feedstock.

The steepest declines were in the loading of ferrous scrap (down 35 percent), ferrous metals (down 17 percent), grain (down 27 percent), industrial raw materials (down 18 percent), and coke (down 16 percent). Shipments of these goods, along with cement (down 13.8 percent) and construction materials (down 13.1 percent), have dropped so sharply that it clearly indicates a crisis.

In the categories of coal, oil and petroleum products, iron and manganese ore, chemicals and soda, and timber, the decline has been moderate — between 1 and 6 percent year-on-year.

In absolute terms, more than half of the total reduction in freight loading came from four groups: construction materials, oil and petroleum products, ferrous metals, and coal. Coal and hydrocarbons account for a larger share of total shipments, so even a relatively modest decline (2.8 percent for coal and 5.4 percent for oil and petroleum products) had a major impact. Construction materials and ferrous metals have a smaller share, but activity in those sectors has contracted far too abruptly.