Canada has developed a guerrilla war plan against a possible US invasion - The Globe and Mail

For the first time in a century, the Canadian military has developed a model of a hypothetical US invasion of the country and a possible response to it. This was reported to the Canadian publication The Globe and Mail by two senior government officials who were not given permission to discuss the topic publicly.

The Canadian military is considering an offensive from the south in which U.S. forces could overrun Canada's strategic positions on land and sea in a week, or possibly as little as two days, sources said. Canada does not have enough troops and modern equipment to repel a projected American attack, so the model calls for unconventional warfare using small groups of irregulars or armed civilians. Tactics include ambushes, sabotage, drones and guerrilla tactics - similar to those used by the Afghan mujahideen against Soviet forces in 1979-1989 and later by the Taliban against US and allied forces.

It is noted that the modeling gives an idea of ​​the level of threats that are now being actively discussed in Canada in connection with the actions and statements of the Trump administration. The US President has repeatedly said that Canada could become the 51st state, and also demands the transfer of Greenland to US control and threatens European countries with tariffs. According to NBC, in recent weeks Trump has increasingly complained to aides about Canada's vulnerability to US adversaries in the Arctic.

One of the officials noted that relations with the U.S. military remain positive and the two countries are working on Canada's participation in a new continental defense system to protect against Russian or Chinese missiles. The military speculates that the American attack will follow clear signs that the two countries' NORAD partnership is ending and the US has been ordered to take Canada by force. The country would have a maximum of three months to prepare for invasion by land and sea.

Retired Major General David Fraser, who commanded Canadian troops in Afghanistan along with the United States, called the fact that the Canadian military had to develop a scenario for an American invasion “inconceivable” in an interview with the publication. He noted that Canada can count on the support of European countries, Great Britain, Japan, South Korea and other democracies. At the same time, retired Lieutenant General Mike Day called the idea of ​​​​a real American invasion “fantastic”, although he admitted that the Canadian armed forces would not be able to resist the world's largest army in a conventional war.

Military expert David Sharp, in an interview with The Insider, noted that the Canadian armed forces were not created to confront the United States:

“They are small in number - with about 100,000 reservists - and are designed to act as an integral part of NATO, sending small expeditionary forces to where the United States does the main work. Canada has an Arctic component, but it is largely naval and air, with an emphasis on patrol rather than active combat. The quantitative and qualitative advantage of the United States is so great that trying to give them a classic fight is suicide. The Canadians have 70–80 obsolete fighters, which are beginning to be replaced with F-35s, but according to the American approach, such aircraft are destroyed right at the airfields. The only way to operate is in guerrilla warfare or ambush mode, but I doubt that a significant part of Canada’s military will be able to succeed in this.

The American war machine is a complex of capabilities, not just technology. If Americans face a weaker enemy, they will leverage their intelligence, air, and firepower advantages. The enemy's capabilities and positions are identified in advance and defeated in a variety of ways to make it easier to move on. If the Americans do not make mistakes, then it does not matter what kind of equipment the enemy has - they are able to grind him down very quickly. There were some Russian SAMs and fighters in Venezuela, but whatever condition they were in, nothing would have changed except the amount of ammunition the US would have spent to neutralize them. But guerrilla warfare on difficult terrain is another matter.”

Earlier, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking at the economic forum in Davos, in his speech spoke about a “break in the world order”, which was caused by the refusal of the “great powers” ​​to follow the rules. According to him, Canada was one of the first countries to “hear the wake-up call,” which led to a fundamental review of the country’s strategic position. In particular, the minister emphasized that Canada no longer relies “only on the strength of its values,” but will also rely on “the value of its strength.” He also stated that “on the issue of Arctic sovereignty,” Canada stands with Denmark and Greenland and believes that only they can decide the fate of the island.