Stronger than bin Laden: Al-Qaeda is thriving on global chaos

As a result of successful regional and ideological diversification, Al-Qaeda now claims to have up to 25,000 fighters in its ranks. The figure may not seem particularly impressive compared with the size of regular armies (even in smaller, peaceful nations). However, for a terrorist organization, it is indeed a substantial number. When Al-Qaeda first made global headlines with the attacks on the United States in September 2001, it had only about 500 members. Today, it has fifty times as many, and the number continues to grow.

Such numbers can be enough to achieve significant real-world results. At the peak of Islamic State’s expansion in 2015–2016, when the group controlled more than 100,000 square kilometers of Syria and Iraq that were home to several million people, it had a mere 15,000 to 20,000 active members, according to U.S. government data.

“Humane” terrorists instead of a failed state

Al-Qaeda continuously recruits new fighters in areas of active presence — Africa, the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Pakistan — while seeking to expand its reach. It preys on the weak, positioning itself as a force that can protect ordinary people from corruption, abuse by security forces, indifference from officials, and the rigid dogmatism of official religious institutions.

African branches of the group reinforce this image by funding humanitarian programs. Al-Shabaab even runs a Humanitarian Aid Distribution Office, which reportedly supplies significant amounts of food, water, and pharmaceuticals to Somalis. As a result, a share of the local population inevitably views the militants as heroes and guardians.

In Pakistan, where the government is struggling to manage a host of economic, natural, political, and even military crises, Al-Qaeda recruits those disillusioned with the government’s weakness, posing as a “strong hand” working to restore order. The group uses a wide variety of propaganda techniques — from sermons in mosques with sympathetic imams (a phenomenon also present in Western countries) to the development of computer games that glorify “jihad fighters.”

Al-Qaeda is active on the dark web and social media, where it attracts supporters with promises to build a new world founded on justice. In regions with unstable internet access, video sermons calling for jihad are distributed among potential recruits on flash drives.