The peak of the crisis is still ahead, and a formal recession will occur in the third quarter, macroeconomic trends show
The economy is entering a recession, which is likely to be recorded in the third quarter. The decline in industrial production slowed in May, but this is largely due to defense orders. However, judging by the dynamics of GDP and high-frequency data on business activity, the economy is experiencing a pronounced contraction. Excessive strengthening of the ruble may complicate the exit from recession.