In planning the invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin counted on a split in Europe over retaliatory sanctions, invested in European far-right parties, and believed that support for democracy and European integration in EU countries was weak and would be tested again by a show of force and energy blackmail. However, the effect turned out to be the opposite.

In its January review of ‘What current economic trends tell us about the future’, the Bank of Russia’s analysts contend that the Russian economy is in much better shape at the beginning of 2023 than many had predicted. In 2022, the economy was saved from going into freefall by the Bank of Russia’s anti-crisis measures, high oil and gas prices, businesses’ flexibility and the government’s generous cash injections.

The Kremlin formulated its plan to invade Ukraine based on several important assumptions: that Europe would be divided on the issue of retaliatory sanctions; and that support for democracy and European integration across the EU bloc would be severely tested by Russia’s show of force and use of energy blackmail.

The Russian economy at the beginning of 2023 is doing much better than expected, Central Bank experts stated in the January review “What Trends Are Saying.” In 2022, it was saved from a hard landing by the Central Bank's anti-crisis measures, high oil and gas prices, extraordinary business flexibility and generous injections of public money.