The post-Covid recovery of the global economy has slowed, and growth forecasts for the coming years have been lowered. This is a consequence of the 2022 inflation shock, amplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions war. Tightening monetary policy is putting pressure on markets, but inflation is falling slowly. Time after time, China also fails to live up to expectations and is probably ceasing to be the locomotive of the world economy.

Despite the growing geopolitical competition between the United States and China, the formation of a new bipolar order is highly unlikely. While in the past cycle of bipolarity the countries that did not join the major blocs accounted for a very small share of global GDP and global military expenditures, today the situation is quite different.

The post-pandemic recovery of the global economy has slowed down, and growth forecasts for the coming years have been downgraded. This is a consequence of the inflationary shock of 2022, compounded by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions war. Tightening monetary policies are putting pressure on markets, but inflation is receding slowly.

Despite the intensifying geopolitical competition between the United States and China, the formation of a new bipolar order is extremely unlikely. If in the past cycle of bipolarity, countries that did not join the main blocs accounted for a very small share of world GDP and world military spending, today the situation is completely different.