Cutting Off The Tail Piece By Piece: As a result of Trump's new sanctions, oil and gas exports may decline by more than 25% in 2026, and the budget could lose more than 1 trillion roubles
The introduction of sanctions against Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, has marked a turning point in Donald Trump’s policy. Having moved away from the idea of tariff-based pressure, he has returned to the sanctions logic typical of Joe Biden’s administration. This strategy appears less ambitious, but more realistic. The current sanctions policy is not designed to block the sanctioned country's supplies to markets all at once. This could lead to their sharp destabilisation.