The impact of the new war in Iran on Russia and the conflict in Ukraine should be assessed from three perspectives. The first is oil price dynamics, which could have a positive effect on Russia’s economic situation in 2026. The second is the Kremlin’s relationship with Donald Trump: as long as the Iranian issue remains unresolved, Trump is interested in Moscow maintaining neutrality and restraint, and, crucially, in the absence of Russian arms supplies to Iran.

The impact of the new war in Iran on Russia and the conflict in Ukraine should be viewed from three perspectives. The first is the dynamics of oil prices, which may have a positive impact on the economic situation in Russia in 2026. The second is the Kremlin’s relationship with Donald Trump: until the Iranian problem is resolved, Trump is interested in Moscow’s neutrality and restraint and, most importantly, in the absence of Russian weapons supplies to Iran.