The penultimate of the Politburo

Why not so important whether the president of Uzbekistan is alive or dead

In what condition is the 78-year-old President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov, who, as his youngest daughter Lola, recently had a hemorrhage in the brain, has not yet known, no one still knows this , except, of course, his closest encirclement, which observes truly grave silence. According to the Constitution of Uzbekistan, if the president is not able to fulfill his duties, the speaker of the upper house of parliament becomes the temporary head of state for three months. Now this post is held by a little -known politician Nigmatulla Yuldashev. The average age of the population in Uzbekistan is now 27.1 years - exactly as much as up to this moment, Islam Karimov, who is considered to be a number of human rights organizations, was controlled by one of the worst dictators of our time.

Among the real applicants for the role of the successor of Islam Karimov, experts identify three people . First of all, this is the current Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziaev, who has managed the government since 2003. It is believed that it is supported by the so -called "clan of the Jizak region", where it comes from, and the clan of the neighboring Samarkand region, from where Karimov himself came. An important evidence of the influence of 59-year-old Mirziaev may be the fact that it was the Cabinet of Ministers that issued the only official message about Karimov’s hospitalization. Mirziaev, still as a governor in Jizak, and then in Samarkand, was known for very cruel methods of government: once he publicly beat a peasant who complained to him in a difficult situation in his area. The transformation of Mirziaev into the president can make the Uzbek regime even more repressive.

Shavkat Mirziaev

The second potential candidate for the president of Uzbekistan is the first Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Azimov, who oversees the financial and economic bloc in the government and foreign economic relations. Azimov is 56 years old, he is a representative of the Tashkent clan and has a much greater experience in international politics than Mirziyayev. The support of the "Tashkent clan" is also enjoyed by another possible successor to Karimov-the head of the National Security Service of Uzbekistan, 72-year-old Rustam of the Inoyatov. He avoids publicity, over the past 10 years, only one of his photographs appeared in the press - taken during an official meeting with representatives of the special services of the PRC. It was Rustam Inoyatov who stood behind the campaign, deployed against the eldest daughter of Karimov Gulnara, who previously considered one of the most influential women in Asia. She was accused of involvement in a number of corruption scandals, since 2014 it has not appeared in the public, and a cross has been placed on her political career.

Rustam Azimov

A significant obstacle to the highest state post in Uzbekistan for Rustam Inoyatov is his age. However, without a personal alliance with him, it is unlikely that anyone will be able to freely lead the country. It is logical to assume that Inoyatov should support Azimov, since both of them are from the same clan. On the other hand, Mirziaev is in good relations with Inoyatov, and the head of the National Security Service can also act on his side - so as not to annoy other clans and preserve the world between them.

The independent Uzbek political scientist and dissident Kamoliddin Rabbimov , who once held a high position in the state structures of Uzbekistan: in an interview with Radio, is discussing the situation in Tashkent in an interview with Tashkent.

-In the first, among Russian and Western journalists, information from the Uzbek diaspora abroad is circulating that the stroke of Karimov happened after a strong alcoholic libation at a meeting with the Olympic team of Uzbekistan, which returned from Brazil. Karimov drank a lot? Is it possible in Uzbekistan, nevertheless, a Muslim country, it was possible that the head of state openly consumed alcohol? Or is it a bike?

Karimov really drank a lot, both in grief and in joy

- Uzbekistan is not so much a Muslim country as a post -Soviet country! We have a lot of elite. The last almost two centuries lived with Russia, so we have learned very well in Uzbekistan, what to drink, how to drink and when to drink. Karimov, indeed, drank a lot, both in grief and in joy, always. And he always drank only vodka-not wine, not champagne, cognac or something else. This is reliably known. For example, after the Andijan events he drank a lot, went to the bathhouse with his friend from Samarkand and got drunk there, and he was brought into himself for a week. Then he drank again, and then again. He had such a cycle.

- Who can be the successor to Islam Karimov? And in general, did he prepare someone for this place?

-Karimov made it possible to accumulate political weight to two people-this is the current Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyev and his first deputy, Minister of Finance Rustam Azimov. They are both surrounded by Karimov for a very long time, Karimov trusts them, gives them large -scale power, personally controls them. But until now, Karimov has not indicated that he was going to leave, and did not violate this parity between them. Because between the powers of Mirziaev and Azimov there is a certain balance. I assumed that when Karimov considers that the moment came, he would strengthen someone, and completely remove someone from power. But Karimov did not have time to do it. And now he can remain alive or die, but Karimov has already lost control in any case.

Now the internal struggle will begin, which from the side of the common people from the street will not be visible and understandable at all

Now the internal struggle will begin, which from the side of the common people from the street will not be visible and understandable. This struggle will be waged inside the corridors of the authorities - the presidential apparatus, the cabinet and security forces will be involved in it. Moreover, the latter will decide a lot! In Uzbekistan, the most influential power structure is the national security service, led by Rustam Inoyatov, they control everything and everything. But there is no one single pole inside the national security service itself. There is a chairman of the service - and nine of his deputies. Formally power resources, of course, have more Prime Minister Mirziaev. It seemed to me that Islam Karimov still trusts Azimov more and it would make him his successor. But if the struggle begins now, and I think that it has already begun, the likelihood that Mirziaev will receive power is much more.

- What can be said about Mirziaev and Azimov as people and statesmen?

- Both of them adapted to the needs and values of Islam Karimov, tried to like the president as much as possible and suppressed, hid their true feelings. We do not know anyone except Karimov himself except Karimov himself! But whoever comes after him, it will be a person from his environment. And this means that the power will have a pragmatist, like Karimov himself, and authoritarianism in Uzbekistan will remain for a long time. The regime in Tashkent was formed as a stable system of thinking and behavior. The country's political elite is convinced that without the use of power to maintain, strengthen the regime, stability and integrity of the state will not be able to. They always thought and think so! The new leader will try to maintain control through the national security service, through the Ministry of the Interior, through the police. That is, it will leave everything as it is, and in some aspects it will even strengthen the repressive nature of the authorities.

Islam Karimov at the music festival in Samarkand. August 2015

- That is, you have hopes for a change in the nature of the state regime in Uzbekistan after Karimov’s departure?

- Not yet. Whoever comes to power, Shavkat Mirziaev or Rustam Azimov, it will be a car plane. But - with differences. I think that the reign of Shavkat Mirziyayev will be tougher because we saw him as the governor in the Jizak and Samarkand regions. He is capable of strict measures. Rustam Azimov ruled the Ministry of Finance, and before that - the bank. But both of them, when there are not enough resources to convince or stimulate society, subordinates, people, are happy to use coercion. But, nevertheless, I look with optimism at the change. Because the Karimov era ends, so there can no longer be worse!

- Many are now afraid that after Karimov’s departure to power in Uzbekistan, radical Islamists can come to power , whose underground structures allegedly, especially in the Ferghana Valley, say that Karimov’s authoritarianism was the only force that could keep the country from the civil war. Do you agree with such opinions?

- Absolutely disagree! This is nonsense! Over the past quarter centuries of the reign of Islam Karimov, the Uzbek society has been so "cleansed", so strongly "disinfected" that there were no hidden or open Islamists inside Uzbekistan. Even outside of Uzbekistan there are no radical Islamist-Uzbeks. There was an organization "Islamic movement of Uzbekistan", once based in Afghanistan , but as soon as they swore allegiance to the Islamic State terrorist group ( prohibited in Russia.-RS ), it was recently liquidated by Afghan Taliban. Not the USA, not Russia destroyed it, but these jihadists themselves could not agree among themselves! Inside Uzbekistan, the regime is so strong that there are no threats that can get it out of balance. In addition to one problem-a difficult socio-economic situation in the country. This is the only fundamental, long -term problem of the regime. And the secular opposition, a religious opposition - all of them are extremely marginalized. All these ideas are still, but in the form of movements and organizations there is no opposition, religious or any other, in Uzbekistan does not exist.

Islam Karimov during a visit to Moscow. April 2016

- In other capitals of the countries of Central Asia - in Bishkek, in Astana, in Ashgabat, in Dushanbe - now they should look at what is happening in Tashkent?

- From the former Soviet Politburo, only Nursultan Nazarbayev and Islam Karimov still remained in power . Nazarbayev was appointed Gorbachev first secretary of the Communist Party of the Kazakh USSR one day earlier than Islam Karimov was appointed head of the Communist Party of Uzbekistan. So, in quotation marks, Kazakhs can be "congratulated" on the fact that their head of state won this "competition". As for stability in Central Asia, not one of the leading states of the world, whether Russia, China, the USA, European countries, is not interested in destabilization, as happened in Syria or Yemen. I think that the Uzbek political elite will hold control, inside Uzbekistan the power module of the authorities has not gone anywhere. And the elite is not interested in destabilization, because she had accumulated such huge wealth, many billions of dollars during the rule of Karimov that she is not going to lose power and influence. On the contrary, key figures want to negotiate peacefully and maintain power.

In the central, southern and western regions of Uzbekistan, the most powerful drought continues

Nearby states have nothing to worry about. On the contrary, Uzbekistan has a chance to reconsider conflict relations with neighbors, primarily with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, primarily with regard to conflicts due to the distribution of water resources. In the central, southern and western regions of Uzbekistan, the most powerful drought continues. And Karimov hid this information. By the way, if in Uzbekistan, but only in it, there will be a more or less free society or democracy, I think he will have a real conflict with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan . The need for water resources in Uzbekistan is growing, but due to disagreements with neighbors, the volumes of water reserves are reduced.

- The mass of people now send Karimov the wishes of recovery. Is this a sincere impulse or a planned campaign?

- Partly a sincere impulse. Under Karimov, a whole generation has grown. The child who was born during the coming to the power of Islam Karimov is 27 years old. When they say “Uzbekistan”, they understand “Karimov”, and when they say “Karimov”, they understand the “state of Uzbekistan”. That is, in Uzbekistan the middle and young generation are already experiencing an identity crisis against the background of the absence of Karimov, and this is only the beginning. We can recall what happened in the USSR after the death of Stalin-so something similar happens in Uzbekistan. Thanks to globalization today, we have a greater idea of the outside world, but people really worry and think what will happen next. There is information that some, who has houses outside Tashkent, move there. Because they are afraid of what is happening! I think that these experiences of the young and middle generation are sincere.

University students of Uzbekistan, forcibly sent to the collection of cotton every year

-Talks about the successor in the Uzbek society are perceived for granted, as if it were a monarchy, about the medieval khanate, about the prince-investigator, and not about the modern state?

- In Uzbekistan, this is a closed question. Openly, the issue of continuity cannot be discussed publicly. When Gulnara Karimova was hyperactive , everyone believed that she would change her father. But no, she made gross mistakes, quarreled with all the influential persons of Uzbekistan and managed to become a person Non-Grad in Europe and America, where criminal cases were instituted against her laundering in especially large sizes. Gulnara Karimova discredited herself. I think that after the death of Karimov, she will leave Uzbekistan, because it will be the only way for her to be saved. As for others, I am sure that in the kitchens people are discussing this, and this is natural. Because even the concepts of "successor", "continuity" came to us from the realities of the Russian Federation. Like the whole of Central Asia, Uzbekistan is in the Russian information space, people watch Russian channels with might and main, read articles on the Russian Internet. When Yeltsin in 1999 declared Putin his successor, people began to think that there was such a normal concept, there is the need for the continuity of the state course. And such reasoning among our experts has always been. But in Uzbek legislation and in political thought there is no such requirement.