Real and imaginary price increases, a program for Maduro from Russian economists and tanks from a bliss

Prices, Shatdown in the USA and hope for Runet: how did 2019 begin

Photo: Zumatass

The first working week lasted only three days, but was able to fit more important news than another full week. All of them can tell us what to expect from the continuation of the year.

Rising prices. In the first week of the year, economists always monitor prices, and the first week of 2019 is special due to VAT increase. Rosstat recorded 0.5% inflation on January 1–9 - for the same period of 2018 it was 0.2%. But the current indicator is far from record and lower than the forecasts of analysts. In the first week of 2015, after the collapse of the ruble, inflation was 0.8%. VTB Capital predicted similar numbers (0.7–1.1%) and in the first week of 2019, but the forecast did not materialize (except that Rosstat, as often happens, later adjust the data retroactively). All this allows the Central Bank to adhere to its previous forecast of annual inflation - 5.5%. However, this is “the average temperature in the hospital”, in some cases, everything can be different.

• Retail prices for gasoline rose exactly within the limits of 1.6–1.7%permitted by the government within the framework of an agreement on price freezing. But this, of course, is an artificial figure: wholesale prices on the exchange grow almost 10 times faster - by 11-14%. This may mean that the retail prices after the expiration of the frost in the end of March can increase.
• More than usual prices rose for the cars themselves - from January 1, they went up in price in the amount of up to 5%. Auto -dealers laid out VAT growth in new prices, and another 2.5-3% were added by automakers - this is a cape for inflation and more than expected, weakening the ruble in 2018. At the same time, the car will become more expensive and insured - OSAGO since January 11 rose by 15–20%.
• The first week of the year, this is not yet visible, but real estate should be one of the most rise in price goods in 2019. Here, VAT has nothing to do with it-developers promise prices by at least 10% due to the new law on shared construction, and at the same time for the first time in several years, mortgage rates -Sberbank and VTB raised them by 0.6–1.2 percentage points from January 1.
• And I would like to, but it will not be possible to bypass the question of egg prices. After the news about the marketing course of the Udmurt factory, which began to sell eggs with nine, they are discussed by the whole Facebook today. Let us explain briefly: the eggs in December 2018 really rose by 26% of the last year, but this is due to the abnormally low prices of 2017. Compared to 2016, eggs are now most expensive by 5%. All this was explained by the head of the Analytical Center “SOECON” Andrei Sizov.

Shatdown in the USA. Good news for Russian businessmen waiting for new sanctions: American officials and congressmen are definitely not up to them. Shatdown (partial suspension of work) of the government will already set a historical record of duration - 22 days, and there are no prerequisites for its completion. All this is distant not only by the moment when 800 thousand American officials will see their salary, and Uber and Lyft will be able to begin to prepare for an IPO, but also the moment of discussion of new anti -Russian sanctions.

Fragile aircraft industry. But, as the last week showed, no new sanctions are needed for a real catastrophe of the Russian aircraft industry. At first it turned out that the United States is able to block Sukhoi Superjet supplies even to sanctions Iran (there are more than 10% of American components on the plane). And then-that the refusal of the supply of composite materials jeopardizes the entire project of the MS-21 aircraft, the main hope of the Russian aircraft industry worth 438 billion rubles. There is nothing surprising in this - modern aircraft industry is impossible without international cooperation. And this means that with hopes for success in this most important industry for the next years, Russia will have to say goodbye.

For Runet, not everything is lost. But the Russian Internet has some hopes to avoid excessively hard regulation. Government and near -government structures unexpectedly gave negative reviews to both scandalous bills Andrei Klishas and Andrei Lugovoi, introduced at the end of last year. At first, the Ministry of Communications criticized the project for posts for posts with disrespect for power, and then, as The Bell found out, established by the government and Internet companies “Digital Economy” gave a negative review of the Sovereign RuNet.

Bell Club

Mikhail Kuchman in Bellclub

The first guest of the club in 2019 will be the co -owner, the head of the Supervisory Board of the Socialist Republic and the founder of the HOFF furniture network, businessman Mikhail Kuchment . Before doing business, Mikhail made a successful managerial career, but in 2008 he decided to leave the post of commercial director of the M.Video network in order to build a new business in retail. Today, his HOFF furniture network has entered the rating of 500 largest companies in Russia. On the prospects of private banks in Russia, creating a business at the side by a powerful international competitor and much more, the club members will be able to talk with Mikhail personally. The meeting will be held by The Bell editor Irina Malkova will be held on January 23 at Cabinet Lounge . You can purchase tickets and club cards here . The number of places is limited.

Exclusive

Recipe for Maduro

The Bell found out how the Russian authorities propose to withdraw from the deepest crisis the economy of their strategic partner - Venezuela. In November, the Russian delegation led by the Deputy Minister of Finance Sergei Storchak went to Karakas and left its proposals and recommendations for stabilizing economic policy. If the Venezuela authorities listen to Russian colleagues, the President of Venezuela Nicholas Maduro will have to implement these measures to life. Just this week, he took office for the second time, after he won the election last year - contrary to hyperinflation of 1,300,000% per year and a complete collapse of the country's economy, whose millions of citizens became refugees. Compared to Venezuela, the Russian economy is experiencing American sanctions simply brilliantly.

Here are the main points of the plan:

• First of all, Russia proposes to support the suffering population, and for this to introduce an unconditional basic income for households.
• The second point is to turn off the printing press, stopping financing the budget deficit due to emission. Last summer, Maduro removed five zeros from the currency and restarted it as a “sovereign car”. But this did not help: the currency has already lost 95% of its value to the dollar.
• The third measure is the most obvious: to increase oil production as much as possible and diversify exports.
• Finally, the Russian delegation suggested Venezuela to conduct a tax reform and, following the example of Russia, focus on indirect taxation instead of direct taxes.

Venezuela’s attempts to solve problems with hyperinflation and sanctions by creating the El Petro national cryptocurrency tied to oil, Russian experts diplomatically appreciated positively - but the Storchak said it in mutual calculations.

What will happen next? Whether the Maduro government is ready to follow Russian recommendations in reality is a big question. The main thing that she needed from Russia, Venezuela received: according to the results of the December negotiations with Vladimir Putin Maduro, he said that Russia invests more than $ 5 billion in the oil industry of Venezuela, more than $ 1 billion in the production of the production industry, and also put 600,000 tons of grain to the country. Since 2006, the Russian government and Rosneft, according to Reuters, issued Karakas at least $ 17 billion loans.

What everyone is talking about

Investigation of the murder of "Group Jemal"

This week, almost six months after the murder in the Central African Republic, three Russian journalists Orhan Dzhamal, Alexander Rastorguev and Kirill Radchenko, the results of the first - albeit unofficial - investigation appeared. The version of the Events on Thursday was presented by the Dossier Center, funded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky. About what conclusions he came to, we talked in detail here . Khodorkovsky cannot be called an unbiased participant in this whole story (the dead journalists went to the Central African Republic, working for another of his project), the status and competence of its investigators are unknown, and only law enforcement agencies can verify their version. But at least it is worth studying it, of course, there is really a lot of new information in the “dossier” version, which cannot be said about the results of the investigation of the Investigative Committee presented today.

The figure of the week

Tank

On January 1, the domestic military film “T-34” was released, which for the first weekend raised $ 19 million-an absolute record in the history of Russian films. Among the producers of the picture are Leonard Blavatnik (Forbes #27), the British-American entrepreneur of Ukrainian origin and the business partner of Viktor Vekselberg under the sanctions. As it turned out, Blavatnik considers the history of World War II deeply personal.

• The film, which the Russian media calls the “Furine” on the tanks (here is our short Coob ), tells the story of the Soviet tanker. He finds himself in a fascist concentration camp and agrees to become a live target on the teachings of German tankers - in the hope of escaping a tank through the Czechoslovak border. Hence the name of the picture: T-34-the most famous Soviet tank, a symbol of World War II.
• Two companies were engaged in the production of the picture - the Russian Mars Media and Amedia, the main owner of which belonging to the bluvate of Acess Industries. The billionaire decided to support the film for personal reasons: "My grandfather is a veteran of the Second World War, and this great victory is part of our family code."
• The budget of the picture, according to Variety, amounted to $ 10 million - that is, the tape paid off in the first weekend rental. The total amount of fees in just 10 days is also impressive: $ 21.1 million. For comparison, the painting “Fantastic creatures: Green de Vald crimes in Russia in Russia collected about the same as“ T-34 ”in 10 days. Although before the absolute record-in 2009, the Avatar film raised $ 119 million in Russia-T-34 is far away.
• In the success of the film about the Second World War on the Russian screen, there is nothing surprising: in recent years, Victory in Russia is celebrated with an unprecedented scope (the more interesting is that the T-34 almost managed to do without patriotic stamps, writes film critic Anton Dolin). But in many ways this is the victory of the Ministry of Culture, which has very much tried to clear the film distribution from foreign novelties on New Year's holidays. Among other premieres, the first half of December was transferred to Greench, Transformers and Spider-Man.

Peter Mironenko, Irina Malkova, Anastasia Stog