How the world and Russia offer to prevent a climatic disaster, from Chisinau to the reception room to Tim Cook and Meta instead of Facebook

With what Russia has been going to the main climatic summit in Glasgow for six years and why it can be disappointed

The climatic summit in Glasgow is designed to become a breakthrough in the global environmental policy - but most likely it will be a huge disappointment. The Bell tells what to expect from him and what Russia is traveling with him.

What's happening

This Sunday, a two -week World Ecological Summit (COP26) will open in Glasgow, which, by the value for the global climatic agenda, should even surpass the 2015 Paris summit. The event will take part in Joe Biden, Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron, who will fly to Glasgow from Rome, where the G20 summit is taking place on the same weekend. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will alleviately perform at the Video Summit.

In Paris, six years ago, the countries of the world agreed to reduce emissions in order to prevent the growth of global temperature higher than 2 degrees, and better - by 1.5 degrees compared to the pre -industrial level. Over the past years, it became clear that the achievement of even this relatively modest goal requires the reduction of greenhouse emissions by half by 2030 and the achievement of non-valve emissions by 2050.

In anticipation of COP26, the report of the intergovernmental group of experts on changing the UN climate (IPCC) was released , from which it follows that the goal is still achievable, although the average temperature has already increased by 1.1 degrees. But this requires urgent, decisive and coordinated actions of all countries. Even when the plateau is reached by emissions until 2050 and the transition to their reduction, climatic scenarios are approaching catastrophic (an average temperature growth of about 3 degrees in 2080–2100). Inertial scenarios give an increase of 4 degrees and above.

Each additional tenth in these forecastsis critical : warming into three degrees is considered the boundary of irreversible catastrophic changes. We are talking, for example, about the progressive emission of greenhouse methane from permafrost with a simultaneous decrease in the absorption ability of the biosphere-this can significantly accelerate the change in the climate and completely derive it out of control.

What is expected from the summit

COP26 has ambitious goals, but the fact that they will not be achieved is obviously already at the start, writes Politico.

The countries participating in the Paris Climate Agreement-and this is almost the whole world, including Russia-should submit new binding offers to the UN to reduce emissions every five years (National Determined Contributions, NDC). Accepted at the 2015 Paris summit, it is definitely not enough to keep global warming 1.5 degrees to the pre -industrial era. But the obligations updated to COP26 close a maximum of 15% of the necessary reduction of emissions and correspond to the growth of the global temperature by 2.7 degrees, writes Chatham House.

From the summit they almost do not expect “sending coal to a landfill of history”, which was insisted by the chairman of the summit, ex-minister of energy of Great Britain Alock Sharm. At the previous COP26 meeting, the G20 meeting is really coordinated only by the ban on financing by countries participating in coal projects abroad, Bloomberg writes .

The dubious prospects of the Global Methane Pledge initiative, aimed at reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030 (this should reduce the average temperature of the Earth by 0.2 degrees. The project is promoted by the United States and the European Union, but it will not be supported by Australia (the largest exporter of LNG) and Russia (the largest pipeline gas exporter).

The breakthrough and the fulfillment of the obligations of developed countries is unlikely to allocate $ 100 billion annually for climatic projects in developing countries, as in the coordination of the rules of the international carbon market and cross -border regulation of emissions, Chatham House states.

“Despite the noticeable progress after the Paris Agreement, 1.5 degrees are already a zombie goal. She is not alive, but she cannot be allowed to die, because it is the basis of the UN climate agenda and the reason to believe that humanity can do at least something to save itself from the disaster, ”writes Politico.

What is the main conflict

Countries with a “dirty” energy balance or dependent on fossil energy resources will try not to take real obligations or set target parameters so that they are easy to achieve, writes Bloomberg.

China, depending on coal and giving almost a quarter of world emissions, can fail alone. When the chairman of the PRC Xi Jinping decided not to go to Glasgow, the Western media regarded this as a bad sign. On Thursday, China published new NDC, and it became clear that the chances of a breakthrough fell sharply.

The new goals of China are little different from the goals of the Paris Agreement, writes Bloomberg. The country will “make every effort” to reach the peak of emissions until 2030 and to neutrality until 2060, reduce the energy intensity of GDP by more than 65%, and the fraction of incomplete energy sources will increase to 25%instead of 20%. “The world expected more from China, and he missed the chance to lead the environmental agenda,” said Bernis Lee, an expert on the sustainable development of Chatham House. However, China pledged to strictly limit the growth of coal consumption already in the 14th five-year plan (2021–2025), to begin to withdraw coal TPPs in the 15th five-year plan and not to build them abroad. Independent assessments show that while China’s policy corresponds to warming by 3 degrees.

India, the third in the world for emissions after China and the USA, generally refused to accept zero obligations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to the summit - it is expected that he will call for developed countries to finance the energy transition and recall that India’s emissions per capita are much lower than the average IDS and it intensively develops alternative energy. India remains the only world economies in the top 10, which did not at all give the UN updated NDC.

Russia (the fourth on emissions) and Saudi Arabia producing a quarter of global oil together ignored the struggle with climate change, but now they have turned to the climatic agenda and will promote decisions involving the maximum extension of demand for fossil energy resources, Bloomberg predicts . The essence of the proposals will be that oil, gas and coal can be consumed in one place, and tied greenhouse gases in another. President Putin has repeatedly talked about the huge absorption potential of Russian forests. Scientists, however, indicated the vices of these calculations.

The largest coal export, Australia, nevertheless set a goal of carbon neutrality in 2050, but did not take increased obligations by 2030 (which were almost demanded from it).

Brazil, like India, will knock out international financing in order to at least begin to really reduce emissions and curb the cutting of the Amazon forests, predicts Bloomberg.

Iran, the eighth by emissions in the world, remains outside the limits of even the Parisian agreement. The country's authorities promised to think about environmental purposes if sanctions were removed from it.

What is Russia going to Glasgow

The Russian delegation at COP26 will be headed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk. The head of the Ministry of Economy also consists of Maxim Reshetnikov, the Ministry of Natural Resources Alexander Kozlov, the special representative of the President of the climate Ruslan Edelgerias and the sustainable development of Anatoly Chubais. Vladimir Putin can perform at the Video Summit.

From the statements of officials it follows that Russia will promote its “green” energy resources and energy initiatives. Kozlov told Reuters that the delegation would seek full accounting for the absorption ability of Russian forests (1.2 billion tons per year, half of which is lost in fires and cutting), as well as “green” status for hydroelectric power plants and nuclear power plants. Edelgeriev did not exclude that he would raise the question of lifting sanctions from "green" projects.

Before the summit, the Ministry of Economic Development prepared the strategy of low -carbon development updated after Putin’s assignment (The Bell has a presentation). It has two scenarios until 2050, inertial and targeted.

• Inertial proceeds from the preservation of the current model of energy production and consumption and the lack of special decarbonization measures. With this scenario, Russia will reduce non-discharge of greenhouse gases (taking into account the absorption by CO2 forests) by 25% by 2050-up to 1.98 billion tons of CO2 equivalent, and carbon-intensive carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide per unit of GDP) will decrease by one and a half times. Investments will grow by an average of 1.9% per year, the available income of Russians is only 1.7%.
• In the target scenario, active decarbonization is spelled out, including carbon pricing tools - in particular, the creation of the national market of “carbon units”. At the same time, the Net discharge scenarios should decrease by 60%, to 630 million tons, and the carbon capacity of the economy-six times. The Ministry of Economic Development expects an increase in investment by 3.7% annually, the real disposable income of Russians - by 2.5%. But if, under an inertial scenario, the cost of electricity for the population almost does not change, at intensive price it will increase noticeably - by 26% by 2050.
• In an inertial scenario of Russia's GDP, in constant prices, it should increase by 2050 to 195 trillion rubles (by 83%), with intensive - up to 264 trillion rubles (by 147%).

How Russia will fight emissions

• The exit to the target indicators of the intensive scenario will require the price regulation of greenhouse gas emissions in the least effective carbon -like sectors of the economy, and its parameters will have to be determined taking into account the results of special mode in Russian regions, the Bell told The Bell a source close to the government, familiar with the strategy, and confirmed the federal official. There is no speech about the quota system on emissions on a country scale (by analogy with the EU), Solnikov said .
• The growth of hydrogen exports are provided (from 2–12 million tons per year to 2035 to 15-50 million tons by 2050), the generation of renewable power plants, the share of nuclear energy, the replacement of coal generation to the Bezuglerodny, the use of energy -efficient technologies (for example, steam -farm installations) and the production of own electric vehicles in Russia.
• Russia sees the whole potential for absorption CO2 in forest and agriculture. The range of its assessment in the target scenario is from 545 to 935 million tons per year.

What experts think

The strategy leaves that Russia plans to reach a carbon neutrality only by increasing the efficiency of production, forest and agriculture, said Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director of the Fitch Marine -Marinchenko agency. The most progressive in the strategy, in his opinion, can be called a hydrogen rate, "but one hydrogen may not be enough to compensate for falling income from hydrocarbons exports."

A large rate has been made to hydrogen energy and electric vehicles, the deputy head of the group of risk assessment of sustainable development of ARP Vladimir Gorchakov agrees. But both projects bear long -term risks, since the internal and external demand for hydrogen and electric vehicles is not clear, he adds.

Separate goals of the Russian strategy - for example, 10% of domestic electric vehicles in the volume of production, laid down in the concept of electric vehicles until 2030, can hardly be called ambitious: the same Great Britain will prohibit the sale of new cars from the ICE since 2030, hybrids since 2035, Marinchenko lists. The goal of the United States is 50% of electric vehicles in sales since 2030. The purpose of China - 20% of electric vehicles and hybrids in sales of new cars by 2025 - will be overfulfilled, the expert says. Already in the third quarter of 2021, this figure against the background of a crisis of deliveries of traditional automakers jumped to 18.6%.

The decrease in net drives laid down in the scenarios seems significant, but when calculating them, apparently, emissions from the burning of hydrocarbons obtained in Russia and consumed abroad are not taken into account. The companies call such SCOPE 3 emissions - when BP or Shell promise to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, they take them into account, says Marinchenko.

Russia is critically behind in the decarbonization, and this threatens it with a “huge washing out of money” from the budget under the influence of cross -border carbon regulation, the head of the scientific project in the field of increasing energy efficiency and reducing emissions into the atmosphere of Anselm Maxim Kanishchev is categorical. The EU introduces carbon tax since 2022, and the modernization of production, including a carbon effective one, takes at least three years-that is, it can give the first fruits only in 2025, Kanishchev appreciated. Russian exporters can cost at least € 1 billion per year to Russian exporters. “At the same time, the government still does not have any voiced plans for introducing carbon payments within the country. Even the Sakhalin experiment plans quota only in 2024 - this is unacceptable late, ”he said.

To rebuild the economy so that the energy transition is unnoticed for Russia, it is unlikely that it will work out. “The energy transition, in particular, will imply the localization of energy production, that is, there will be a redistribution of revenues from the exporting countries of energy resources (as the Middle East and Russia) to the importing countries,” Marinchenko from Fitch explains. Russia can win if the atomic energy becomes a pillar of global electrification, but not the fact that in the long run nuclear power plants will not lose competition to the wind and the sun, he believes. “The most beaten, but the right recipe is to achieve the economy diversification, including supporting high -tech export. But this requires international cooperation and a healthy investment climate - what is becoming less in Russian reality, ”said Marinchenko The Bell.

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