According to the sources of "Medusa", the Kremlin again discuss the possible assault on Kyiv - against the background of the promotion of the Russian army in the Donbass

Now Moscow hopes to win "by autumn"

Russian troops continue to advance in the Donbass. The statements of the official representatives of Ukraine on this subject are becoming more and more alarming; Judging by some of them, Kyiv expects a major defeat there. According to the sources of Medusa, despite the fact that the results of the Russian army clearly do not correspond to the initial plans of Moscow, the Kremlin again discuss the possible assault on Kyiv - and even hope for a full -scale victory in the war.

In the domestic political bloc of the Presidential Administration (AP) - against the backdrop of the promotion of Russian troops in the Donbass - there was again hope that Moscow could "bring a war in Ukraine to victory in a few months." About this Medusa was told by two sources close to the Kremlin, and one interlocutor directly in AP.

The Kremlin considers the capture of the Victory Program for the “declaration of Victory” at the end of May 2022 to take the capture of the entire territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions by Russian troops. In general, the Russians have approached this result: now, under the control of Ukraine, about 5% of the territory of the Luhansk region and a little more than 40% of Donetsk remains .

The Maximum program is still called the control of Kyiv. At the same time, the offensive of the Russian troops to the capital of Ukraine ended in failure in March, Russia allocated troops from this direction (leaving behind the evidence of numerous war crimes). From the very beginning of the invasion, military experts indicated that the capture of Kiev was originally an illusory goal, since Russia concentrated not enough for this.

Nevertheless, according to the interlocutors of Medusa in the Kremlin, the highest leadership of Russia still did not abandon this goal. “We will still have their [Ukrainians]. Most likely, by the fall, it will already end, ”one of the sources believes. At the same time, as Medusa previously wrote , before relative success in the battles in the Donbass in the Kremlin were more careful in estimates - and admitted that they did not see options to finish fighting in Ukraine and maintain their rating.

According to Medusa interlocutors, such moods spread not only in the Kremlin, but also in the leadership of United Russia. The Secretary of the General Council of the party Andrei Turchak regularly travels to the Donbass and even established the Russian flag on the administration of the village in the Zaporizhzhya region, engaged in the Russian military.

Visited the Donbass and the head of the Kremlin’s political bloc, Sergei Kiriyenko. It is he who now oversees the self -proclaimed DPR and the LPR - and, according to Medusa, it is preparing referenda about their accession to Russia. Kiriyenko publicly calls the invasion of Ukraine "the fight against Nazism and fascism."

As the prospects for the attack on Kyiv in the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation are now evaluated, the interlocutors of Medusa are not known. As we wrote earlier, already at the end of March 2022, the Russian military leadership finally reconciled that Kiev would not be able to “take little blood” - that is, by forces already involved in the “special operation”.

The Medusa interlocutors indicate that in this sense the Russian leadership has a space for maneuver: for example, conscripts can be massively sent to war. Messages about the participation and death of conscripts appear with the beginning of the invasion, but, according to military experts, this is a rather rare phenomenon. “So far, mostly contractors are fighting. They are enough for relatively slow advancement [in Ukraine]. But if you need to move faster, you can use conscripts. This is still an army, ”the source of Medusa, close to the AP, argues.

He adds that it is not worth waiting for universal mobilization in Russia: in the Kremlin they are afraid to take such a step, since he can hit the rating of the authorities and Putin personally.

In addition, the Kremlin doubts that Western countries will continue to support Ukraine with finances and weapons if the war is delayed. “Sooner or later Europe is tired of helping - this is both money and the production of weapons, which is more necessary. Closer to the fall, it will be necessary to negotiate [with Russia] for gas and oil to the heating season, ”Medusa transfers arguments.

“Now it seems that little is happening at the front. That the Russian army takes some secondary settlements. That she has some problems. But this feeling is created because the Ukrainians did not immediately give up, as many thought. Yes, the blitzkrieg did not work out, some miscalculations are visible. But this does not mean that it will not work to win the victory, ”formulates one of the Medusa interlocutors close to the ap. “Russia has a knowingly more resources [than Ukraine without the support of the West],” adds one more.

Public rhetoric about Russia's goals in this war remains extremely wide for interpretations. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation still says that the main task of the “special operation” is “the liberation of the Donbass” , although the Russian troops have already entrenched in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. The decree on the simplified provision of Russian citizenship to residents of these regions has also been signed .

Putin himself at the Parade on May 9 once again stated that “all planned plans are fulfilled” and “the result will be achieved,” but did not explain what exactly he means. Previously, he called the goal of Russia “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine - no matter what it means.

Andrey Pertsev